771
FXUS64 KMRX 161500
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1000 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 957 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

- Wind advisory to expire this morning, however winds will remain
  breezy, especially in southwestern VA. Only meager rain amounts
  with front.

- Mild temperatures later today into Monday. Warmer conditions
  to return Tuesday through Friday.

- Afternoon relative humidity will be low on today, extremely low
  on Monday. Fire danger will be high in southwestern Virginia
  today owing to the combination between winds and minimum
  afternoon relative humidities.

- Two potential rounds of rain later into next week with the
  greatest chance of significant rainfall for Friday and Saturday.



&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

A morning update was done to expand the Fire Danger Statement
across all of East Tennessee. Based on recent trends and the
latest guidance, places northeast of Knoxville look to have
slightly higher winds where 850mb flow is stronger behind the
front. Overall, RH values will be comparable across the region.
Southwest North Carolina counties were left out of this expansion
because of a later frontal passage and less indications of
sufficiently low RH values.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Minor wind event going on in the mountains currently. Wind advisory
will be allowed to expire at 7 AM EST, which lines up well with HREF
mean wind gusts. Cove Mountain in the Smokies has observed gusts
into the mid-40s mph thus far. HRRR and other CAM guidance bring
the band of rain showers associated with the cold front currently
in eastern Kentucky through our area early this morning, but only
meager rainfall will result. Behind the front, a very dry airmass
will move in behind, with PW values slipping to 0.25" by Monday
morning resulting in low RH values this afternoon and very low RH
values Monday afternoon. Breezy winds will linger into today but
will be light on Monday. Virginia will experience a period today
afternoon and early evening where the meteorological conditions
will be favorable to high fire danger between the still breezy
conditions and minimum RH values, though we will remain short of
red flag conditions.

Significant anomalous warmth will return for Tuesday through Friday.
Ridge heights will be building and by the middle of the week will be
over 582dm, above the 90th percentile for this time of year.
Glancing blow from a weak shortwave on Tuesday will bring light rain
across our northern counties. Warm front passing early on Tuesday
may produce light rain, though it will be working against the
lingering dry air near the surface. After the shortwave`s passage,
we will remain firmly underneath the ridge`s influence. Wednesday
and Thursday carry a 20 to 30% chance of daily high temperature
records at Chattanooga. Knoxville and Tri-Cities records are
significantly higher and thus unlikely to be met.

Past Thursday, still expecting a low pressure system to eject from
the Rockies but recent guidance depicts a weaker system, perhaps a
filling low, moving up into the Midwest. This may reduce rainfall
significantly (as shown in recent GFS runs) and even the EC-AI has
backed a bit off on rain amounts. It still is the best chance to see
decent rainfall across the whole of the area though and we remain
six days out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

A few showers around and brief MVFR conditions to start the period,
but then clearing with VFR conditions are expected for the
remainder of the period all sites. Winds will be gusty from the
west and northwest during the day before diminishing tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  39  65  41 /   0   0   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  67  35  60  39 /  10   0   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       66  34  60  39 /   0   0   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              62  30  55  34 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...99