022
FXUS64 KMRX 041713
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
113 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Key Messages:

1. Dry for most areas through the period, expect for slight chance
to low-end chance POPs across southern and eastern areas.

Discussion:

High pressure remains over the area at the surface for the period. A
weak upper low lifting out of the northern Gulf will will track
slowly northeast across the southeastern states during the period.
Precipitation with this weak system will mainly stay to our south
and east.  However, we will see a slight increase in moisture along
with limited convective energy at least south, and models indicate
low end chances for a weak convection across southern areas today
and perhaps brushing our eastern mountains tonight. There is some
limited instability indicated (HREF MUCAPES are generally in the 250
to 750 J/kg range), so a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out
mainly this afternoon.  Outside of any convection, expect quite a
bit of sunshine today with afternoon temperatures slightly above
normal. Low temperatures tonight will be a bit above normal as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Key Messages:

1. Low (20 to 40%) chance of a shower or weak thunderstorm Thursday
afternoon.

2. Unsettled period picks up in earnest Friday afternoon persisting
into early next week with medium to high chances of showers and
thunderstorms each day.

Discussion:

A flat upper ridge with minor disturbances will continue to be the
story Thursday through the weekend. Next week both ensemble and
deterministic guidance indicate a more substantial upper trough will
sweep into the Great Lakes region. The overall forecast down here at
the surface remains unchanged, a few showers or weak thunderstorms
will be scattered about Thursday afternoon into the early evening
hours. More likely chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
from Friday through early next week. Peak precipitable water
available will be Friday into Saturday, and decent shear will also
be present, especially on Saturday as one particular shortwave
swings through the Ohio River valley.

The long term SPC outlooks and NSSL ML severe guidance also add
merit that a few strong to severe storms may be possible at the end
of the week into the early weekend, with damaging wind gusts being
the main item of interest. Otherwise with seasonably high PWAT
present, thunderstorms may at times produce heavier rainfall rates,
nothing too atypical for summer though. Rainfall forecast continues
to call for 1-2 inches of rain through the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

VFR conditions continue. Areas of haze will be possible today with
some brief lower vis in the 6 to 9 mile range. Haze clears by late
in the forecast period. There`s about a 10 to 20 percent chance of
a rain shower near the CHA terminal this afternoon, but the
probability is too low to mention in the TAF at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             67  88  69  89 /  10  30  10  60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  65  87  68  87 /  10  40  10  70
Oak Ridge, TN                       65  87  68  86 /  10  40  10  70
Tri Cities Airport, TN              62  84  63  83 /  10  30  10  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...JB