174
FXUS64 KMRX 191846
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
246 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Key Messages:

1. Continued dry weather with mostly clear sky conditions.

Discussion:

A strong ridge of high pressure will remain in control. We will see
a clear to mostly clear sky and dry weather for the period. Some
patchy fog will be possible late tonight, mainly near bodies of
water. RH values will be quite low most areas Sunday afternoon once
again. High temperatures Sunday will be a bit above normal.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Key Messages:

1. Dry weather continues through the upcoming week.

2. Slight cooldown in the middle of the week after a weak frontal
passage.

Discussion:

Fall weather will continue for all of next week and into the
upcoming weekend. Near to slightly above normal temperatures will
persist through about Wednesday. By Wednesday, a cut-off low is
expected to eject from the Southwest through the Mississippi and
Ohio river valleys as a shortwave.

A shortave will help a cold front through the area second half of
next week... likely during the late Wednesday into Thursday
timeframe. This will bring a slight cool down, though precipitation
chances are unlikely due to the dry nature of the frontal passage
(PWATS less than 1 inch). There could be another front trying to
move through along a shortwave next weekend that could bring some
light precipitation to the region, but models aren`t in agreement on
this solution, and the ones that do show rainfall have limited QPF
associated with it.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

There will be some patchy fog around again late tonight, but
probability of it impacting the terminals currently looks too low
to warrant including in the TAFs. Will go with a VFR forecast all
sites with light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             45  77  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  42  74  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       43  75  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              39  74  39  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...