275
FXUS64 KMRX 031036
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
636 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1252 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Key Messages:

1. Absolutely beautiful day with sunshine and dry weather.

Discussion:

Northwest flow aloft and surface high pressure will result in
another absolutely beautiful day across the region. Patchy valley
fog is expected this morning, but this will quickly clear by mid-
morning. Max temperatures will be right around seasonal normals
with less muggy than normal conditions for early July.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 1252 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Key Messages:

1. Dry, pleasant Independence Day.

2. Ridging builds in this weekend with hot temperatures and
increasing moisture. Isolated diurnal convection possible across
the higher elevations on Saturday, and moreso on Sunday.

3. Diurnal convective trends continue into next week with
increasing chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms by
Tuesday/Wednesday as a weak frontal boundary approaches the
region.

Discussion:

High pressure and northwest flow aloft will result in an
absolutely beautiful Independence Day with a clear, sunny sky.
While it will be very nice, it will be important to remember that
heat index values will still be in the mid to upper 90s with a
very high UV index. If spending a lot of time out in the sun,
practice heat safety, stay hydrated, and use sun protection.

This weekend, low-level moisture begins to increase as surface
high pressure shifts east. Upper-level ridging becomes more
pronounced across our area which will continue to limit any
precipitation chances. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will
become more possible on Saturday and Sunday, mainly across the
higher elevations during the peak heating hours of the afternoon.

Diurnal summer-time convection continues early next week. A weak
frontal boundary approaches the Tennessee Valley and Southern
Appalachians on Tuesday into Wednesday with increasing chances
for scattered, mainly diurnal, showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Valley fog will dissipate by 14z with VFR conditions prevailing
through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             91  70  94  72 /   0   0  10   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  89  67  92  69 /   0   0  10   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       89  67  92  69 /   0   0  10   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              86  63  89  65 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION...JB