133
FXUS64 KMRX 180601
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
201 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 144 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- Daily chances of showers and storms continue this afternoon
through the weekend. A few strong to marginally severe storms could
produce gusty winds and localized flooding.

- Muggy conditions with near normal temperatures continue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

A broad ridge currently encompasses much of the country over states
not bordering Canada. A shortwave trough is expected to sweep
southeastward over Ontario and into New England today. A fairly
strong surface low will develop as it crosses northern Maine, where
it may near 990 mb. The strongest dynamics will be well over there,
where an enhanced risk for severe weather will be today. A marginal
risk is in effect for us today and tomorrow. Damaging wind gusts are
the primary threat with any severe storms, but of course, the
flooding risk continues with over 1.5 inch PWATs and lowered FFGs.
Increased cloud cover may tamper the threat today, where the 00z
HRRR indicates sub 2k J/Kg CAPE, meanwhile, instability may exceed
2k J/Kg tomorrow. Shear for the most part won`t be all that strong
to support organized convection. A possible weakened line of showers
and thunderstorms associated with the frontal boundary, may sweep
through during the overnight hours tonight and into tomorrow
morning. Timing of the line may help limit any strong to severe
development.

Following the exit of the front, ridging will generally remain over
the Intermountain West, while troughing resets again early to mid
week, where we could see another frontal passage and one we may feel
the difference from for once. Towards the end of the week, highs
fall below 90 and dew points possibly below 70. Leading up until
that time, temperatures will generally run around normal. The next
front will be one to monitor, as SPC generally highlights The Ohio
Valley to the Mid-Atlantic for possible severe chances around that
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Cluster of TS steadily moving to the north near KTRI, will end
over the next couple hours. Potential again for patchy fog this
morning, really uncertain about location and density. Then skies
to scatter after daybreak before another day of scattered TS this
afternoon into the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             91  74  91  74 /  30  10  60  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  88  73  88  72 /  60  50  70  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       89  72  89  72 /  60  40  70  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              87  70  85  68 /  70  70  80  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...Wellington