Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
560 FXUS64 KMRX 041129 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 729 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 513 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 - Dry weather can be expected through the weekend. Rain chances return middle of next week. - Temperatures will hover near normal or just above normal through the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1245 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 Surface high pressure will meander near the Mid-Atlantic region through early next week under broad troughing aloft. Low pressure will essentially remain locked across the Gulf and far southeastern US with days of unsettled weather expected. For us, this will result in temperatures trending above normal and dew points on the rise as well. After today, dew points will begin to exceed 60 degrees. The trend the past couple of forecast packages now has been an extending dry trend, with the entire weekend expected to remain dry and now possibly into Monday as well. High pressure won`t only affect the dry conditions expected, but may provide some breezy nights across the higher terrain the next few nights. A deep trough out west is expected to roll eastward, eventually making its way to us. A developing cold front out ahead of it may bring welcomed precipitation back to the area around the Tuesday into Wednesday timeframe. As noted in Friday afternoon`s discussion, the question now becomes, will we even see that much rainfall? NBM 48 hour probabilities of total rainfall exceeding just a half an inch through Thursday morning is pretty low - hardly grazing 50% in the northern plateau. And it lessens the more east and southeast you go. This will be something to monitor if we can even ring out any sort of beneficial moisture from the front. Of course, anything is better than nothing. Around late Wednesday into Thursday, we turn dry behind the front with surface high pressure once again dominating the northeast. We may finally trend towards more October-like temperatures with valley highs in the lower 70s the end of next week and into the next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 513 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 Fog development late in the period is possible, but currently the probability of significant vsby restriction looks too low to warrant inclusion of fog in the forecast. Will go with VFR conditions all sites for the period with light winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 61 83 66 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 57 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 81 55 82 61 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 51 80 55 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...KS AVIATION...99