517
FXUS64 KMRX 101056 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
656 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 646 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will be around each day through next
  Saturday, with the afternoons generally the period of most
  activity.

- There will be potential for a few storms to become strong to
  severe each afternoon with damaging winds and localized flooding
  the main threats.

- Temperatures will be generally not be far either side of normal
  for this time of year.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

The pattern for the week ahead can be summarized as being situated
between ridging aloft to the south and west, and troughing across
the north with continuous shortwaves rolling in from the NW. This
places us within a general NW flow pattern. No real airmass change
or noticeable frontal passage in sight, as the area is forecast to
record similar temperatures each day this week. Humidity will remain
elevated and mostly unchanged, with 70s dew points (in the valley)
expected. However, ridging is forecast to shift over us next
weekend, providing the possibility of hotter temperatures and drier
weather.

Later today has trended drier with recent/newer runs of the CAMs.
Activity remains well north of the area, and then across the
southeast, where an isolated shower/storm could develop this
afternoon mainly south of I-40.

Possibly during the afternoon hours Tuesday, will need monitoring,
as a pronounced shortwave will cross the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
An MCS or remnants of one, will approach the area from the north
around mid-day Tuesday. 00z runs of CAMs mostly show different
solutions and general uncertainty. Day 3 SPC issued yesterday
afternoon does bring a slight risk of severe weather for northern
portions of the CWA.

Given the general pattern we`ll be in for the coming week, paired
with shortwave impulse approaches under unstable conditions, showers
and thunderstorms will be in the forecast each day in some capacity.
This time of year does favor increased chances of MCS occurrence, but
the further out in time, the greater the uncertainty as far as
timing, extent, and severity. The best chance of storm activity will
be during the PM hours, with gusty winds and flash flooding the main
threats.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM EDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Widespread fog/low clouds in East Tennessee will dissipate quickly
after sunrise. There may be a transition to some MVFR CIGS as the
fog lifts, but that should be short lived as the fog/cloud layer
is very shallow and won`t take long to scatter out. As such, have
all sites back to VFR levels by 14z. Expect another round of
SHRA/TSRA again this afternoon. Coverage should be less than the
last couple of days, favoring KCHA and KTRI mostly. Still believe
there will be convection over the Smokies, which warrants
including at least a VCSH at KTYS. Otherwise, fog development
appears likely again tonight too, with highest confidence at
KTRI. Left the other two sites fog free tonight with the 12z
issuance, but if rain occurs there I would expect fog chances to
rise significantly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             93  74  93  74 /  30  10  40  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  91  74  92  74 /  20  10  40  40
Oak Ridge, TN                       91  72  92  72 /  10  10  40  30
Tri Cities Airport, TN              87  70  88  69 /  10  20  50  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for Anderson-
     Campbell-Claiborne-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins-
     Jefferson-Knox-Loudon-McMinn-Meigs-North Sevier-Northwest
     Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-
     Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sullivan-Union-
     Washington TN.

VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for Lee-Russell-
     Scott VA-Washington VA.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...CD