192
FXUS64 KMRX 211930
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
230 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 226 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

Key Messages:

1. Another chilly night across the region.

2. A moderation trend continues Saturday.

Discussion:

For tonight, surface ridging, clear sky, and light winds will once
again allow temperatures to drop into the teens most locations.

A quieter weather pattern will continue into this weekend with
surface ridging. A fast moving short-wave will move across the
Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians Saturday but this system
is moisture starved. HREF and deterministic models show high/mid
level clouds associated with this wave so a period of mostly cloudy
sky is expected.

Main weather story is moderation of temperatures with warming 850mb
temperatures and thickness.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 226 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

Key Messages:

1. A warming trend and dry weather will continue into early next
week.

2. Rain chances return mid-week with the best chances being on
Thursday. A transition to light snow in the mountains is possible by
the very end of the period.

Discussion:

Surface high pressure will continue to influence dry conditions
Sunday and Monday. The combination of amplifying southwesterly
surface flow and H5 heights increasing to near 568dam Monday
afternoon will bring a return of near to slightly above normal
temperatures per late February standards.

The warming trend will continue into mid-week. Our next chance of
precipitation returns with a quick shortwave trough Tuesday night.
However, limited moisture and synoptic scale forcing will keep
mentionable rain chances confined to southwest Virginia and
northeast Tennessee. The majority of the central and southern valley
will remain dry. Temperatures will range 5-10 degrees above normal
Tuesday and Wednesday as a longwave trough gradually develops to our
west.

As this trough translates eastward and an area of surface low
pressure develops over the northern Great Lakes region Wednesday
night into Thursday, increasing probability of rain is expected
across the whole forecast area. Some northwest flow snow cannot be
ruled out on the backside of the system Thursday night but the
overall precip impacts from this system remain uncertain due to
notable model disagreement this far out. Moderate confidence exists
in the return of cooler temperatures with overnight lows near
freezing making a return at the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through the forecast
period. Brisk northerly winds today will diminish by early evening
with light to calm winds overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             24  50  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  19  46  22  50 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       19  46  22  49 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              15  43  21  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...DH