604
FXUS64 KMRX 110533
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
133 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Key Messages:

1. Mostly clear and dry conditions continue with high pressure in
control.

2. Gradual warming trend into the weekend. This weekend and early
next week will have above normal temps.

Discussion:

Currently there are a few very weak, and isolated showers working
their way across Middle Tennessee and south Central Kentucky. This
looks to be weak remnants from convection across the south/central
plains working it`s way into the eastern Tennessee Valley where
there`s just enough instability to keep these showers going. Will
put in low end PoP and drizzle chances for parts of the valley and
Plateau overnight but a sprinkle to 5 minute rain is the most likely
outcome from these showers.

Looking forward, the rest of the week and the weekend continues with
what we`ve been seeing for the first half of this week. Mostly clear
skies, and a gradual warming trend. By Sunday/Monday we could see
many places in the central and southern Valley with temperatures
eclipsing the 90 degree mark... About 5 or so degrees above normal
for this time of year. Good news is that the dewpoints look to
remain in the upper 50`s to low 60`s so it won`t feel as muggy as
when we were last hitting the 90`s regularly in August when the dew
points were closer to 70.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Some light showers are drifting into the region from the northwest
of TYS. It`s possible they move near the terminal but aren`t
expected to have any impact. The main impact through the early
morning will be patchy fog development around TYS and TRI. VFR was
maintained for the time being, but reductions can`t be ruled out.
Through the day on Thursday, SCT clouds around 5,000 feet are
expected again, along with northerly to northeasterly winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             87  62  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  83  58  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       83  58  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              79  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...BW