Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
778 FXUS64 KMRX 231129 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 729 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 727 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Showers and storms are currently isolated and expected to dissipate shortly after midnight. - Clearing skies in the early morning hours will lead to fog in the morning hours. Fog may be dense in spots. - A cold front will move through the region by morning bringing cooler, drier conditions today and tomorrow. - Rain chances will return by Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1216 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 The cold front is currently on our doorstep over Eastern Kentucky and the Cumberland Plateau on the latest analysis. Showers and storms are currently isolated but new activity is popping up in the foothills of the East Tennessee mountains. CAMs and the NBM agree that showers and storms will dissipate by 1 or 2 AM EDT. Confidence is increasing that clouds will clear out before sunrise and fog will likely be an issue this morning. The front will move through tonight bringing cooler temps and lower dew points today and tomorrow. Sunday and Monday dew points will be in the 50s and highs will be in the 80s (Chattanooga area may hit 90-91). Sunday through Tuesday will be dry with high pressure at the surface. The upper level pattern will be about the same with a deep trough on the East Coast and a ridge centered over the Rockies. The NBM has low rain chances Wednesday increasing to 40-60% chances by Thursday. The trough will be centered over the Ohio Valley again by midweek with a shortwave rotating through the pattern on Thursday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 727 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Morning satellite and TDOT camera observations indicate patchy dense fog is present over portions of the region, with dense fog located immediately next door to KTRI. Kept the tempo in for the first hour at KTRI on account of the present fog. Fog should dissipate though shortly after 13z, with VFR skies likely for the remainder of the TAF period. Light winds today, mainly either northerly or westerly in the dry post-frontal airmass. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 91 65 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 62 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 87 61 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 57 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...McD AVIATION...Wellington