362
FXUS64 KMRX 131140
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
640 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

- Moderating temperatures and quiet weather on tap through the
  end of the week.

- Low chances of rain Friday night, slightly better chances
  Saturday night into Sunday.

- Low to medium chances for rain next Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1230 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

No significant changes nor impacts in this forecast. Dry weather
into the weekend, a slight chance of a light shower tomorrow
night in southwest Virginia, then a weak front brings more light
rain chances Saturday night. The front won`t be dragging in a
harsh airmass, and return flow will return mild November air in
rather quickly anyways after it. Next week a shortwave is expected
to traverse the area from west to east but ENS and GEFS still
have a difference in where the accompanying jet streak is and
where the surface low is. Those differences will determine how
much of the area sees rain on Tuesday.

Out west a more active weather pattern will be setting up, but
low confidence at this time for how that will evolve and when
those systems will make their way eastwards to our portion of
southern Appalachia Wednesday and beyond. Otherwise the forecast
is for mild temperatures to continue, with Saturday being the best
day ahead of the weak cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR and dry conditions persist through the TAF period. Light winds
less than 10 knots today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             67  41  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  63  38  67  47 /   0   0   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       63  37  65  45 /   0   0   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              59  32  62  46 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...Wellington