500
FXUS64 KMRX 121116
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
716 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 714 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

- Seasonable temperatures and dry weather are expected through the
  upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 123 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

In the upper levels, a deep trough is over the Eastern U.S. with a
closed low over the Northeast and a closed low over the Southeast
Coast. A ridge extends from Texas to the Midwest. At the surface, a
strong low is nearly stationary off the coast of the Carolinas. High
pressure near Quebec extends through the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. Our region will remain dry on the backside of the East Coast
system with northerly flow in the upper and lower levels. There is a
very low chance for a brief, light rain in Northeast Tennessee and
Southwest Virginia this afternoon as the system is closest but
chances are very low below 10 percent. The ridge will build into the
Tennessee Valley on Monday and Tuesday as the East Coast system
moves out to sea. Ridging and high pressure will likely continue
through this week. Guidance is picking up on the possibility of rain
next weekend with the ridge breaking down but that is pretty far out.

Temps will be slightly warmer as the ridge builds into the region
but temps will still be pleasant with highs mainly in the mid to
upper 70s for the Tennessee Valley. With a dry air mass in place and
clear skies for most nights, lows will be mainly in the upper 40s
and lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 714 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Morning river fog is prevalent in a few valleys this morning, and
as observed at KDKX and KTRI. Fog should scatter quickly this
morning, leaving VFR skies and dry weather. Redevelopment of
patchy fog is again possible late in the period, especially after
9z or so.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             78  53  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  76  52  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       76  52  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              72  50  73  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...Wellington