482
FXUS64 KMRX 310813
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
313 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 228 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

Key Messages:

1. Gusty mountain and foothill winds through this morning, wind
advisory in effect.

2. Rain will be steady and more moderate this morning, slowly
decreasing by late this afternoon.

3. Rainfall totals will be 0.50 to 1.00 inch in most locations,
1 to 2 inches in Southwest Virginia.

Discussion:

In the upper levels, a closed low is over Missouri this morning.
The surface cold front is over Southeast Missouri and Arkansas.
Rain will continue off and on through sunrise. After sunrise, a
steady, more moderate rain will move through the region ahead of
the cold front. Rain will move out of the region by late
afternoon. Another round of showers will move through in the
evening hours as the shortwave trough moves through. Some showers
may persist through the overnight hours in Northeast Tennessee and
Southwest Virginia due to northwest flow on the backside of this
system but it will be warm enough for the precip type to be all
rain.

A Wind Advisory remains in effect through mid morning. A
southwesterly low level jet around 50 knots is moving over the
mountains this morning. Wind direction will be favorable for
downslope wind enhancement with gusts up to 55 mph expected.
Isolated gusts up to 60 mph will be possible in the most downslope
prone valleys. Winds will decrease by mid or late morning.

The Upper Cumberland Plateau and Southwest Virginia counties have
already received half an inch to one inch of rain in many spots.
Elsewhere, rain totals so far are less than half an inch according
to radar estimates. An additional half to one inch of rain is
expected today. Isolated minor flooding issues will be possible
in the spots that get the higher amounts.

Temps will be mild today and tonight with highs near 60 in the
Valley and lows near 40.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 228 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

Key Messages:

1. Very warm next week with highs 15-20 degrees above normal.

2. Best chance for widespread rain will likely come Thursday through
the weekend.

Discussion:

February will start off with a complete reversal of the weather
pattern we experienced during January.

After the fast moving upper level system zips through the region
we`ll see a brief "cooldown" on Saturday with temperatures expected
to still remain several degrees above normal, but cooler than
Friday. Mid and upper level flow through the atmosphere becomes more
zonal as we head into next week. This will lead to a warming trend
being aided by high pressure near the surface and winds turning more
southerly. A few deterministic models are still trying to spit out
light QPF on Tuesday with a possible weak stationary boundary in our
vicinity, but certainty is still very low on this chance for light
rain/drizzle due to the very weak signals in the atmosphere at this
time. Will continue to undercut guidance during this time as the
overall trend continues to remain dry outside of a few outliers.

The most exciting question will be do we see our first 70 degree day
of the year in the southern Appalachians this upcoming week...And at
this time it appears likely. Forecast guidance is continuing to come
in with impressive high temperatures under this increasing ridging
in the mid levels, surface high, and southerly winds. Looking at the
record highs for the upcoming week it`s not looking like we`ll be
smashing records left and right, but we will be close for several
days. Will append the daily record high temperatures for the rest of
the week to the end of this AFD.

Heading into the weekend indications are some shortwaves will eject
out of the southern central US ahead of a trough over the northern
states, which will bring our next best chance of precipitation. If
the timing remains on track Thursday and Friday will be our best
chances to see rainfall, and temperatures will likely be warm enough
to support all rain, even up to the peaks of the mountains ahead of
a possible incoming front as we crest into the weekend.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date    Chattanooga    Knoxville      Tri-Cities     Oak Ridge
02-02   76(2016)       75(2016)       71(1989)       74(2016)
02-03   75(1986)       74(2020)       74(1989)       71(2020)
02-04   77(1927)       72(1986)       68(1986)       68(1992)
02-05   75(1890)       73(2008)       71(2008)       71(2019)
02-06   70(2019)       73(1986)       68(1991)       70(2008)
02-07   80(2019)       77(2019)       76(2019)       76(2019)

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2025

Conditions will be mostly MVFR through this afternoon as rain
continues off and on. A steadier moderate rain is likely this
morning through early afternoon. VFR will return this afternoon
when the rain moves out. Low level wind shear of 30 to 40 knots
from the south or southwest is present across the region as seen
on the VAD Wind profile from local radar. Gusty surface winds will
be possible this morning mainly at TYS and CHA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             62  42  60  43 / 100  10   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  61  41  57  39 / 100  10   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       58  38  56  39 / 100  10   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              59  40  54  39 / 100  20   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Blount Smoky
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
     Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McD
AVIATION...McD