395
FXUS64 KMRX 031650
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1250 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Key Messages:

1. Seasonably cool temperatures continue through the first half of
next week. We`ll be close to normal by the back half though.

2. Rain chances continue through much of the forecast period as a
broad mid/upper trough lingers over the eastern U.S.

Discussion:

Broad troughing overhead or slightly to our north, along with an
inverted surface trough across the TN valley, will continue through
the weekend lending itself to continued rain chances for much of the
area and continued below normal temperatures. Mid level flow remains
weak, so some isolated flash flooding will continue to be of concern
due to slow moving storms, but severe chances are low overall.
Regarding Sunday PoPs, the inverted trough shifts west some, and
SELY H85 flow becomes more pronounced over the CWA. These factors
could act to dry things out locally and shift the focus of rain
further west, so PoPs may be somewhat overdone. However, it seems
most probable that rainfall would shift more towards the plateau and
away from our Virginia counties and far northeast TN, as opposed to
completely out of our CWA. As such, left the NBM output in the
forecast for now.

Monday through the midweek timeframe a sharp upper trough develops
over the mid and lower Mississippi Valley then shifts east into the
middle Tennesse area, remaining there through the end of the period.
There`s some hints of rising heights over the northeastern part of
the CWA in some guidance as the trough digs over the Mississippi
valley, which could mean that PoPs are overdone at least in parts of
our area Mon/Tue. But the general trend of keeping rain chances in
the forecast through the end of the period for most of the CWA seems
to be the right call. That upper trough isn`t particularly strong
and doesn`t lead to any kind of frontal passage and air mass change,
so at the very least we`d have diurnally forced convection.
Temperatures should remain slightly cooler than normal through the
first half of the week, then closer to normal for the back half.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

VFR conditions will prevail the remainder of the afternoon into
the evening. Some MVFR visibilities will be possible at KTYS and
KTRI with less confidence at KCHA. Winds will be light and
variable overnight. VFR conditions are expected to return shortly
after sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             66  79  66  79 /  20  30  40  60
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  65  82  66  81 /  30  30  40  50
Oak Ridge, TN                       65  81  66  81 /  30  30  30  50
Tri Cities Airport, TN              59  82  62  80 /  20  20  30  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$