Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
831 FXUS64 KMRX 051105 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 705 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 503 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 - Dry weather will continue through Monday. A 40-70% chance for showers and a few storms make a return Tuesday and Wednesday. - Temperatures will begin the period slightly above normal, becoming more typical for early October by the latter half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 107 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Surface high pressure and upper level ridging will continue to bring dry conditions to the area through at least tomorrow. Not only that, but temperatures will trend warmer as well as rising humidity. Models in general have trended towards the Gulf moisture remaining locked to our south, but guidance this morning did try to bring an outside isolated chance to SW NC and parts of the Southern Appalachians tomorrow. Kept the forecast with the drier side of things, thus removing any wording of precipitation. As we roll into Tuesday, ridging aloft becomes suppressed by upper level troughing that will essentially cut through the middle of the country, zonally. A shortwave originating from the northern Rockies will eject almost due eastward. A cold front expected to develop out ahead of it will impact us around the Tuesday into Wednesday timeframe. A notable difference from 24 hours ago is that QPF amounts have increased, which coincides well with the latest NBM ensemble of 48 hour precipitation exceeding a half inch ending Thursday morning. The upper plateau is now within the 60% range, whereas before, it hardly grazed 50%. A good trend since we`d like to see a good soaking rain after days of being dry. Following the front, it`s possible light, albeit a low chance, of precipitation lingers around Thursday and maybe into Friday as well due to another shortwave within the flow. Surface high pressure will strengthen over the northeast again the end of this week. Under lower heights and a decrease of a few degrees C 850 mb temps, fall lovers may rejoice at the high temperatures forecast to round out the forecast period; lower 70s for much of the valley! Or what we should be seeing for almost mid October. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 503 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Fog chances late in the period look low, so will have a VFR forecast for the period all sites. Winds will generally be light. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 65 83 65 / 10 10 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 62 84 63 / 0 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 82 61 82 63 / 0 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 80 57 82 58 / 10 10 0 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...KS AVIATION...99