736
FXUS64 KMRX 231711
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1211 PM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

The forecast on this quiet weather day generally appears to be on
track, so just a few minor tweaks mainly to sky, temps, and dew
points for today with this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 247 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Key Message:

1. Another dry and slightly warmer day is expected with highs
reaching well into the 40s to low 50s in the south.

Discussion:

Currently early this morning, a shortwave is located over the
Southern Plains with surface high pressure remaining in place across
the region. Continued subsidence and clearing cloud cover has
allowed for radiational cooling and another cold morning. Throughout
the day, the shortwave will approach the area, bringing an increase
in cloud cover. As the airmass remains very dry, any precipitation
chances are expected to remain well to our south. WAA in the lower
levels will also allow temperatures to rise further into the 40s and
even lower 50s in the south. Overnight, the shortwave will move over
the area with a continuation in cloud cover from the day. This will
limit the radiational cooling and keep overnight temperatures at
least slightly milder than this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Key Messages:

1. Milder temperatures this week. Normal to slight above normal
temperatures are expected.

2. Cold front with widespread rain expected Wed night into Thu.
Ending as snow showers across the far east Tennessee mountains
Thursday night due to northwest flow orographic lift.

Discussion:

The upper levels will feature quasi-zonal flow across the CONUS to
start the period as the polar and subtropical jets remain separated
by quite some distance through the middle of next week.

The lack of highly amplified flow, and persistent boundary layer
southwesterly winds will result in a milder temperatures  through
Wednesday.  Temperatures will be near to slight above normal.

For Wednesday night and Thursday, a northern stream short-wave with
a jet streak across the Ohio valley will enhance the fronto-
genetic forcing across the Ohio and Tennessee valley. This forcing
will produce a band of showers. Currently, instability is quite
lacking with NBM thunder probabilities of 10 percent or less.
Since limited moisture from the Gulf is expected QPF amounts will
be generally less than 0.25 inch. Probabilities show only 40-50
percent chance of 0.25 inch for areas north of interstate 40 with
lesser amounts south.

For Thursday night, vertical temperature profile is cold enough for
snow. Some limited northwest flow orographic lift will produce a
chance of snow showers for the far east Tennessee mountains and
mountains of southwest Virginia. Any snow accumulations will be very
limited.

For Friday, long-wave trough quickly moves east with upper flow
becoming more westerly. Dry and slight cooler but no cold wave
behind this system.

For next weekend, another long-wave trough will move across the
Great Lakes and Ohio valley with another frontal boundary moving
through. This boundary will be even more moisture starved with
surface ridging essentially closing off any moisture return from the
Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Will see varying amounts of high clouds, with more of these south
(CHA) than north (TRI). VFR conditions are expected for the
period all sites. Winds will generally be light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             53  31  61  37 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  50  27  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       51  28  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              49  26  56  31 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....DH
AVIATION...