031
FXUS64 KMRX 230522 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1222 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Radar is showing some light returns moving southeast. Satellite
is showing top of cloud temperatures that are borderline for ice
crystallization and model soundings depict borderline thermal
profiles as well, although LNP was reporting light snow earlier
this evening. While lower elevations are seeing liquid precip,
higher elevations will likely see some additional light snow
and/or ice accumulations overnight, thus the advisory will be
allowed to continue. Will make a few adjustments to temperatures
and dew points with this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Key Messages:

1. Snow showers are expected to bring 1-3 inches of additional snow
to portions of southwest Virginia and the East Tennessee mountains
tonight, with isolated totals between 3-5 inches in the highest
peaks and ridgetops.

2. Breezy and at times, blustery conditions expected with wind
gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range across the highest elevations
resulting in wind chill values in the teens

Discussion:

Current radar may look rather dry and satellite currently paints
a picture of broken cloud cover, but that is expected to change
tonight. Another upper level impulse rounding the upper trough
will again send moisture to our area from the north and west. 15
to 20 KT 850 mb winds or so right now are expected to increase to
around 30 to 40 KT after 00Z Saturday. Then all of the ingredients
come into place to repeat northwest flow induced snowfall again
tonight, except it will be more confined to far north and eastern
sections of our CWA (north and northeast TN and southwest VA).
Generally can expect an additional 1 to 3 inches of snow, with the
highest terrain or mountain peaks seeing an additional 3 to 5
inches. Snowfall will begin to taper off during the very early
morning hours Saturday.

Winds out of the west will also increase tonight leading to 20 to
30 mph gusts or so for TN bordering NC and southwest VA. Wind
gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range will be possible over the highest
elevations. With this in mind and another cold night in store, but
not as cold, wind chills as low as the teens are possible.

Saturday with time, will improve with decreasing cloud cover and
high pressure moving in from the Mississippi Valley. Temperatures
will be on the upswing with 850 mb readings rapidly increasing 10
deg C or so from Saturday morning to the afternoon. This will
result in high temperatures for the middle and southern valley to
reach the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 227 PM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Key Messages:

1. Brief return to above normal temperatures Sunday and Monday.

2. Rain returns Monday afternoon and night to start the week.

3. More significant system moves in late Wednesday and through
Thanksgiving. One to two inches of rain possible with this system.

Discussion:

A progressively wavy zonal flow will persist in the extended period,
allowing a quick warm up Sunday and Monday ahead of the next cool
front that returns us to near normal late-fall temps. This front
will contain a quick shot of showers followed by cool and dry
weather Tuesday.

Then the next system approaches Wednesday and produces most of its
rainfall on Thursday before ending Friday. Models have been bouncy
with the main QPF location, sometimes over SW VA, sometimes south of
I-40. So the "where" is still in question. But indications are that
some flooding problems are to be expected if this system holds true
to its 2" potential rain maximum.  Some streams may escape their
banks and inundate their flood plains and whatever is in them, made
all the worse that the potential for this happens on Thanksgiving
Day.

Behind this second system will be a reinforcement of cold air
leading to a chilly post-Thanksgiving weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

Overcast clouds at mainly MVFR levels will persist at TRI and TYS
through the morning hours. CHA will be on the edge of VFR/MVFR all
night, but a downslope wind off the Plateau should result in
predominant VFR cigs. Cigs will lift to VFR at TYS in the
early afternoon, but TRI is expected to remain MVFR until the
evening. Winds will be around 10 kt overnight, but gradually
decrease through the day.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             57  36  64  45 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  53  33  62  42 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       54  33  60  42 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              47  31  57  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Blount
     Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Russell-
     Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM....GC
AVIATION...DGS