664
FXUS64 KMRX 020600
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Key Messages:

1. Seasonably cool temperatures this weekend and the first half of
next week.

2. Rain chances continue through much of the forecast period as a
broad mid/upper trough lingers over the eastern U.S.

Discussion:

A cooler and drier air mass has moved into the area, with obs
showing dewpoints in the 60s and a NE wind. Surface high pressure
centered over the Great Lakes extends along the eastern slopes of
the Appalachians, with an inverted trough extending northward from
the Gulf Coast through AL to the TN Valley. The inverted trough will
be the focus for showers and a few thunderstorms today, although
instability will be limited with abundant cloud cover in place. The
low to midlevel flow remains weak, so slow-moving showers could pose
an isolated flooding threat. Not much changes with this pattern on
Sunday, but we will have the added forcing of a midlevel shortwave
trough and upper jet streak, so PoPs will remain high for the
entire area.

The broad upper trough this weekend becomes more amplified over
the MS Valley region on Monday, and remains over the TN Valley
region through the rest of the forecast period. This will keep
scattered to numerous showers in the area each day, along with
mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Inverted trough to cause lots of low clouds and spur additional
rainfall. Ceilings next 24 hours is challenging, there`s a 30 to
40 percent chance MVFR CIG conditions will persist through the
day. Light to moderate showers, with a low chance of thunder, are
likely as convection develops and matures from late morning
through the afternoon. Tried to narrow it down timing wise at the
terminals. A low chance either light rain showers or drizzle hangs
around after 00z, but expectation is for lower atmosphere to
begin drying out and bring consistent VFR back late. Light winds,
often with a northerly component.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             83  70  77  67 /  70  60  80  30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  82  69  78  65 /  70  70  70  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       82  68  77  65 /  70  80  80  30
Tri Cities Airport, TN              79  64  75  59 /  70  60  50  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...Wellington