910
FXUS64 KMRX 262333
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
633 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2024

Key Messages:

1. Tranquil weather continues ahead of the next system that
arrives during the long term period.

Discussion:

Not a lot going on in the short term. Dry conditions will last
through the night as surface high pressure moves east across
Kentucky and into Virginia. Upper level flow will remain largely
zonal across much of the eastern CONUS through the period. During
the day tomorrow, the northern and southern stream jets will phase
somewhat over the New Mexico and west Texas region as a
disturbance shifts east out of the southern Rockies. This will
spin up a surface low over the Arklatex region that will
eventually move east-northeast towards our forecast area just
beyond the end of the short term. Rainfall associated with this
incoming system doesn`t look like it arrives until after the short
term either. Thus, tranquil weather looks to continue tonight and
through the day tomorrow, with only an increase in clouds expected
before 00z Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 248 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2024

Key Messages:

1. A strong cold front moves through Wednesday night and Thursday. A
general half to 1 inch of rain possible with this system.

3. Colder temperatures Friday and Saturday, with another reinforcing
shot of cold air on Sunday. Low wind chills could also be a
possibility on Sunday and Monday.

3. Northwest flow snow showers will come Saturday night into Sunday
to northern parts of forecast area.

Discussion:

Broad troughing will develop over the eastern half of the nation,
with a steering pattern over our area to be generally out of the
west-northwest.

One piece of energy Wednesday night will sharpen the trough and tap
the Gulf, leading to another round of showers Wed night into
Thursday. QPFs generally look to be less than an inch, with best
accumulations over the mountains.

Cold air will invade the region behind this departing system, with
temperatures Friday about 5 degrees below normal, and then really
chilling out from Saturday onward with temps running 10 degrees
cooler than normal into Tuesday. Peaking ahead, the cold spell will
persist through next week. Expect Valley highs mainly in the 40s
this Saturday through next Saturday.

The colder air will result in less moisture capacity, and so little
risk of heavy rain events during the cold spell.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM EST Tue Nov 26 2024

VFR can be expected through at least Wednesday night before our
next system arrives beyond this updated TAF period. With some
residual boundary layer moisture present from this morning, don`t
think fog will become as issue as high level clouds are expected
to remain and continue to move in from the NW. Winds from the southerly
to SWly direction will increase for Wednesday afternoon. Not
expecting any gusts at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             38  62  52  61 /   0   0  90  40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  35  61  49  59 /   0   0  90  40
Oak Ridge, TN                       35  59  48  57 /   0   0  90  40
Tri Cities Airport, TN              32  59  46  56 /   0   0  80  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CD
LONG TERM....GC
AVIATION...KS