Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
067 FXUS64 KMRX 021133 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 733 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 134 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Key Messages: 1. Seasonably cool temperatures this weekend and the first half of next week. 2. Rain chances continue through much of the forecast period as a broad mid/upper trough lingers over the eastern U.S. Discussion: A cooler and drier air mass has moved into the area, with obs showing dewpoints in the 60s and a NE wind. Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes extends along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians, with an inverted trough extending northward from the Gulf Coast through AL to the TN Valley. The inverted trough will be the focus for showers and a few thunderstorms today, although instability will be limited with abundant cloud cover in place. The low to midlevel flow remains weak, so slow-moving showers could pose an isolated flooding threat. Not much changes with this pattern on Sunday, but we will have the added forcing of a midlevel shortwave trough and upper jet streak, so PoPs will remain high for the entire area. The broad upper trough this weekend becomes more amplified over the MS Valley region on Monday, and remains over the TN Valley region through the rest of the forecast period. This will keep scattered to numerous showers in the area each day, along with mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 730 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Visible satellite this morning reveals a scattered deck of stratus clouds over the region, and a mix of VFR/MVFR observations support this. As the day progresses, numerous showers and a few embedded TS (especially in southeastern TN) are expected to develop, and thus have low confidence on if VFR CIGs can be maintained or if conditions will deteriorate to MVFR. Expecting VFR post 03z as storms dissipate for the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 83 70 77 67 / 70 60 80 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 69 78 65 / 70 70 70 30 Oak Ridge, TN 82 68 77 65 / 70 80 80 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 64 75 59 / 70 60 50 30 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DGS AVIATION...Wellington