Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
723 FXUS64 KMRX 061109 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 609 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 604 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 - Cloudy conditions persist through the morning, with some sunshine breaking in through in the afternoon for some areas. - Next system arrives Sunday night into Monday with very light precipitation. Some snow could occur in mountains and SW VA, but accumulations and impacts should be negligible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1245 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 Low level moisture remains trapped under a strong inversion and against the mountains in a westerly low to midlevel flow. Clouds will remain in place through the night, until the passage of a midlevel shortwave trough this afternoon. Most of the area should have mostly sunny skies for a couple hours before sunset. The next chance of precipitation arrives Sunday evening and continues through Monday morning. Forcing with this system will be mainly provided by a mid/upper level shortwave trough. There`s no strong surface cyclogenesis in the southeast with this system, and the wind field through the lower and midlevels is fairly weak. With weak forcing, any precip should be light in nature. The latest NBM PoP appear to have trended downward a bit, as the area of heaviest rainfall passes to our south. On Monday morning, around 09Z or so, cold advection develops and temperatures begin to drop behind the 850 mb trough and a weak surface front, allowing for a change to snow. This will be mainly in SW VA and the East TN mountains, but outside the highest elevations, any snow accumulations will be light and not likely to be impactful. For the higher elevations of northeast TN, the NW flow behind this shortwave could result in a inch or two accumulation through Monday evening. Tuesday will be dry with mostly sunny conditions in a NW flow pattern. Temperatures will get a bit warmer on Wednesday, into the 50s, with a slight increase in clouds with a dry shortwave trough passage. A Clipper system brings a chance of rain on Thursday and Friday, although model agreement is poor with this system. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025 Gradually improving aviation conditions are expected with TYS already seeing some brief periods of VFR. MVFR remains likely at CHA and TYS until around noon with TRI keeping MVFR further into the afternoon. By later today, some clouds around 3,000 feet will likely remain but with less ceilings. Winds will be light and variable with a westerly to southwesterly direction favored. Overnight, some fog potential exists but was left out of the TAFs for the time being. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 51 33 53 41 / 0 0 10 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 48 30 51 38 / 0 0 10 50 Oak Ridge, TN 48 30 50 37 / 0 0 10 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 28 50 34 / 0 0 10 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...DGS AVIATION...BW