338
FXUS64 KMRX 251126
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
626 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 612 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

- Gusty winds across the east TN mountains and foothills, with a
  Wind Advisory in effect through this afternoon.

- Low probabilities for a few strong to severe storms this
  afternoon and evening, mainly areas south of I-40.

- Drier and colder for Thanksgiving.

- Temperatures moderate by the weekend, with another potential rain
maker moving in by Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

At the time of writing this discussion(130AM ET), an upper trough
is digging through the northern CONUS towards the Mid Mississippi
River Valley. An embedded shortwave and vort max in vicinity of
the Tennessee Valley will continue to promote development of a
strong H85 jet out of the SSW. Isentropic lift associated with
this LLJ combined with a warm front lifting through the region
will bring increasing coverage of showers through morning hours
into the early afternoon. Per latest soundings and SPC
mesoanalysis, instability should be very limited and elevated with
the AM activity. This will keep severe chances very limited in
the morning hours, but any heavier downpours could help transport
some strong flow aloft to the surface. A surface inversion should
help limit this threat as well, nonetheless, some stronger gusts
between 30-40mph cannot be ruled out. Additionally, this LLJ will
continue to promote a low-end mountain wave event in the East
Tennessee mountains and immediate foothills. Strongest gusts
between 45-55mph will be in elevations 3000ft or greater and the
standard mountain wave prone locations such as Camp Creek and Cove
Mountain. Cove mountain has already reported a peak gust of
42mph, while the LLJ is expected to peak in intensity between
12Z-17Z.

Additional showers and storms are expected to develop along and
ahead of a surface cold front this afternoon. This is likely
where the better chances at having isolated severe weather exists
due to the potential for surface based storms, however,
development of SBCAPE is not a guarantee and will depend how much
time we can get to destabilize, if any at all. The most likely
timeframe for this will be around 16Z-00Z. Given the strongly
sheared profile, isolated damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado
or two will be the primary concerns. This isolated severe threat
is largely confined to areas south of I-40, including the southern
Plateau, southern Valley, and southwest North Carolina. This is
expected to be a largely beneficial rainfall as storm motions will
be quick. Though, if a storm trains due to terrain influence or a
few heavier downpours repeat over one location in quick
succession, isolated flooding may occur in low-lying or poor
drainage locations.

A few light showers may linger through Wednesday morning as
northwest flow develops and tries to squeeze out any lingering
moisture, but mostly dry conditions are expected Wed through Sat.
The main impacts will be anomalously low H5 heights bringing
seasonally cool conditions around 10 degrees below normal for
Thanksgiving Day and Friday. Temperatures will slowly rebound
through the weekend, with lower confidence in rain chances making a
return by the latter half of the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

RA expected to move through the next couple of hours, impacting
CHA first. MVFR CIG will dominate most of the day there. Downslope
off of the terrain may keep CIG in VFR range at TYS and TRI much
of the morning and part of the early afternoon before downgrading
to MVFR. A potential dry period before the afternoon will bring
an increased risk for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening for
TYS and CHA, most notably CHA. Precipitation will exit the region
tonight/early Wednesday, but may still cling onto MVFR CIG. SFC
winds will eventually increase from the south later this morning
and afternoon. LLWS still in effect for TYS and TRI until winds
translate to the SFC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             69  54  61  34 / 100  60   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  68  53  59  31 / 100  80  10   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       66  51  59  31 / 100  70  10   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              64  52  59  29 /  90  70  20   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Blount Smoky
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
     Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KS