774
FXUS64 KMRX 162334
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
734 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 724 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- Above normal temperatures persist through the forecast period.
  Slight cooling into next week.

- Most areas will remain dry this week, however, increasing
  chances of showers each day in the higher terrain as we approach
  the weekend. A few valley locations in northeastern TN into VA
  may also see a shower or storm starting tomorrow, but more low
  to medium chances Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Chattanooga`s streak of 90F+ continues. Unfortunately my advanced
technique of shaking fist at Sun is not working to relieve our
collective burden of summer overstaying its welcome. Really there`s
no significant changes in the forecast cycle. Can`t rule out a
random cumulus cloud letting out a shower over the Plateau/tall
western ridges today, then we turn to a diurnally forced scattered
shower/thunderstorm pattern as the ridge gradually begins its
western trek and better atmospheric moisture returns to our local
vertical profiles. Friday into next week are best chances for
scattered showers and storms, again with it being this hot out,
think summer pattern where valley locations are both unpredictable
and may require some luck to get rainfall.

The bummer aspect of diurnally forced storms is the best coverage is
usually right at or right after peak heating, so not particularly
expecting storms to prevent highs from occurring, and more likely
to occur in the high Plateau or mountain terrain. Also any relief
from temperatures from afternoon storms comes with the tradeoff of
post storm humidity.

Next week with the upper ridge centered to our west but still
generally above average H500 heights, we`ll be above normal and hot
(I am so sorry Chattanooga but you`re still stuck in the 90s) but
slightly less hot than right now. I don`t think we`ll see the
same and definitely not identical coverage of storms each day over
the next week, but everyone will have at least an opportunity to
wet their driveways. As far as weather hazards out of the storms,
both bulk shear and midlevel lapse rates don`t appear to be of
significance over the next week, so really the only hazards would
be typical thunderstorms: lightning, maybe a gusty wind, and a
nonzero risk for heavy rains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Some fog development near TRI may bring MVFR vis in the early
morning hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. Some low
rain chances may be added to TRI for late tomorrow afternoon but
confidence is low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  97  73  98 /  10  10   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  94  72  94 /   0  10  10  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  94  71  94 /   0  20  10  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              66  90  68  89 /   0  50  20  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...McD