552
FXUS64 KMRX 040517
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
117 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Overall, fairly minimal changes were made with the evening update.
Temperatures have been falling quicker than expected in several spots,
so hourly values were reduced. However, there are still many
places remaining mild due to lingering clouds and/or light winds.
With these considerations, overnight lows were kept the same. No
other significant changes were made.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Key Messages:

1. Dry for most areas through the period, expect for slight chance
to low-end chance POPs across southern areas tomorrow afternoon.

Discussion:

Calm and clear tonight. The upper ridge shifts east tomorrow. This
opens the door for an area of low pressure across the FL Panhandle
to slide further north through the day. The NBM has mostly slight
chance POPs in place across the southern TN Valley and southwest NC
tomorrow afternoon. This looks reasonable based on HREF ensemble
mean LPMM output. So be on the lookout for a few possible isolated
showers and storms late in the day. Otherwise, expect sunny skies
and high temperatures to be a bit above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Key Messages:

1. Increasing POPs Thursday, though most areas stay dry.

2. Becoming more unsettled for the latter periods with chances for
showers and storms each day.

Discussion:

No significant change in the long term forecast. The upper ridge
begins to flatten Thursday and isolated to scattered convection will
be possible, although most locations should still be dry.

More numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected for Friday
and the weekend as multiple short waves are forecast to move across
the region. If this pattern holds, it will be a wet weekend. Current
QPF totals from Friday night through Sunday night show between 1 and
2 inches of rain across our area.

The NBM keeps POPs in place on Monday and Tuesday as an unsettled
weather pattern continues.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM EDT Wed Jun 4 2025

An isolated shower or thunderstorm may be around at CHA this
afternoon, but probability of any impacts at the terminal look
tool low to include in the TAF for now. VFR conditions are
expected for the period all sites.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             87  67  87  69 /  30  20  30  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  87  65  85  67 /  20  10  30  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       87  66  85  67 /  20  10  30  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              86  61  83  63 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...