650
FXUS64 KMRX 261828
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
228 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Key Messages:

1. Cold front exits the area this evening, with cooler and drier
weather to follow through Sunday.

Discussion:

Surface obs indicate that a cold front has started to push into
the area from the NW, as dewpoints in the central and southern TN
Valley are in the lower 60s, with mid to upper 50s in the northern
Plateau and SW VA. Some dewpoints in the 40s are noted in KY,
which will advect into our area overnight. Convection along this
front has not developed to the extent shown by the CAMs, but a few
isolated showers during the rest of the afternoon cannot be ruled
out in NE TN and the mountains. We will have clear skies
overnight, but a light wind as well, resulting in low temperatures
in the 40s to lower 50s. Some high clouds may spread across the
area on Sunday ahead of a shortwave trough, but the column below
500 mb will remain very dry. It will be a very nice day with highs
in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Key Messages:

1. Warmer with above normal temperatures beginning Monday and
continuing through midweek.

2. Low chance for diurnal showers early next week, higher chances
in the second half of next week.

Discussion:

The passage of a weak shortwave trough and some weak isentropic
lift may produce some light, isolated showers on Monday.
Temperatures will be trending warmer starting Monday as a large
high pressure ridge begins to build across the South. By Tuesday
we should see highs reaching well into the 80s for most of the TN
Valley. The above normal temperatures continue through Thursday.

Mainly diurnal showers and storms will be possible each day from
Tuesday onward. With the ridge centered to our south across the
Gulf Coast, rain chances will favor our northern sections. On
Thursday, a shortwave is depicted in the guidance as arriving
into the Ohio River valley region, bringing better forcing for
showers and storms to the Tennessee Valley, with a cold front to
come on Friday. As far as hazards in the long term, we`ll
continue to monitor potential for a strong to low end severe storm
or two, and locally heavy convective rainfall, but there`s no
obvious significant weather on the horizon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Although TRI is at the cusp of MVFR/VFR, the TAF will have just
VFR cigs through the afternoon as a rising trend to cigs is
expected to continue. A few showers will be arouhd TRI this
afternoon as a front pushes through, and will mention as VCSH.
Drier air is expected to build into the area behind the cold front
overnight, which should keep VFR conditions at all sites with a
light wind preventing fog development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             80  53  77  57 /  10   0   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  77  51  73  54 /  30   0   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       78  50  74  54 /  20   0   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              76  45  71  51 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DGS
LONG TERM....DGS
AVIATION...DGS