Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
604 FXUS64 KMRX 041753 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 153 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 142 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 - Dry weather can be expected through the weekend. Medium chances (30-60%) for showers and a few storms make a return Tuesday and Wednesday. - Temperatures will begin the period slightly above normal, becoming more typical for early October by the latter half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 Mostly clear skies and light winds should allow for additional patchy fog tonight. Anomalous upper level ridging and surface high pressure will promote above normal temperatures and dry conditions as we continue through the weekend and into early portions of the new work week. The main difference from the previous few days will be increased moisture advection as H85 flow enhances to 20-30kts and becomes better oriented for transporting Gulf moisture. As a result, dewpoints will increase a few degrees and it may feel a tad more humid, though nothing too significant. The enhanced LLJ will also promote breezy winds across higher terrain the next few nights. A deep trough over the western CONUS will gradually swing eastward early into mid-week, however, it will be lifting northward as it does so. The approach of an associated front will allow shower and storm chances to make a return come Tuesday and Wednesday. The best upper level dynamics will remain displaced to our north and latest GFS soundings paint MUCAPE less than 1500 J/kg, suggesting no significant convection. The main question will be how much rainfall can we squeeze out of the system. Latest NBM probabilities of 48hr QPF suggest 0.25-0.75" a good range to represent the CWA. Those higher end values will generally favor locations north of I-40 while 0.50" or less will favor along and south. The potential to have some reinforcing shortwaves traverse mean flow aloft will linger low chances(10-30%) of PoPs each day through the remainder of the forecast period. Overall, the main focus for the latter half of the week into the weekend will be focused on a return to near normal temperatures associated with H5 height falls. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 142 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 High pressure will continue to promote clear skies and light winds for the TAF cycle. Expect some patchy fog to develop across the region tonight but confidence in any impacts to a terminal is too low to include at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 83 66 82 / 0 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 57 83 63 83 / 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 56 82 61 82 / 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 51 80 57 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS AVIATION...KRS