261
FXUS64 KMRX 091830
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
230 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 229 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will be around each day through next
  Saturday, with the afternoons generally the period of most
  activity.

- There will be potential for a few storms to become strong to severe
  each afternoon with damaging winds and localized flooding the
  main threats.

- Temperatures will be generally not be far either side of normal
  for this time of year.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Scattered showers and storms are ongoing and will continue into this
evening. The overall threat of severe weather is quite low, but a
few strong storms are certainly still possible. The bigger threat to
watch out for through this evening will be localized flooding. The
main areas to watch will be east of I-75, especially across the East
TN mountains and foothills, as well as southwest NC and VA. These
are the areas that the HRRR have shown to have the best coverage of
convection through this evening. Any areas that see repeated rounds
of convection will be at greatest risk to see flooding.

Monday looks drier as we get some northerly flow in the mid to upper
levels on the backside of a weak shortwave. The only caveat is if
an upstream MCS, across the Ohio River Valley, can propagate far
enough south to make it into our area, mainly southwest VA. 12Z run
of the HRRR shows a decaying MCS moving across southwest VA by late
morning/early afternoon. So this will be something to keep an eye
on, but otherwise drier for most areas on Monday.

Tuesday through Saturday features a more pronounced northwest flow
pattern across our area. This pattern during this time of year
typically favors increased chances of seeing an MCS across the area.
While the pattern is conducive, predicting the when and the
where are very difficult. Bottom line, increased chances for showers
and storms Tuesday through Saturday. At some point during this
timeframe, at least one MCS, or a remnant, seems probable to impact
our area. Stay tuned.

Beyond Saturday, models are showing the ridge of high pressure
shifting east. This takes us out of the northwest flow pattern and
would lead to drier and hotter conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the first half of the
period, aside from any brief MVFR conditions due to passing
showers/storms. Then, VFR overnight at TYS and CHA but MVFR FOG at
TRI. Winds should be light and less than 10 knots, and generally
out of the southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             73  92  73  92 /  10  40  10  40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  72  90  73  91 /  10  20  10  40
Oak Ridge, TN                       71  90  72  91 /  10  30  20  40
Tri Cities Airport, TN              68  87  69  86 /  10  30  20  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99