218
FXUS64 KMRX 041122
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
622 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 618 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

- Dry weather with a gradual warming trend through much of the week.

- A system will approach the area late in the week and into the
  weekend with showers and a few storms possible.

- Much colder weather expected by early next week behind a cold
  front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1046 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Dew point depressions near zero, calm wind, and a clear sky means
a lot of radiational fog development is expected (and already
occurring in spots) tonight into Tuesday morning. Areas of dense
fog are expected for the morning commute with improving conditions
by mid-morning. With high pressure in control, mostly clear
conditions are expected through the middle of the week.

A fast moving shortwave across the Northeast CONUS will bring a
trailing cold front across the area on Wednesday night, but
limited moisture means no precipitation chances are expected for
our area.

Shortwave ridging quickly builds back in by Thursday afternoon
with warming temperatures and synoptic zonal flow aloft. A more
progressive trough will approach the Mississippi Valley by late
Friday with an associated surface low pressure near the Great
Lakes. A trailing cold front will move eastward across the
forecast area Friday night into Saturday morning with widespread
scattered rain showers.

A series of shortwaves will amplify the upper-level trough across
the Appalachians next Sunday night into Monday. At this time,
deterministic and ensemble members are in good agreement. The LREF
indicates about a 70+ percent chances of temperatures less than 32
degF across the valley next Monday night, which is a strong signal
7 days out for a widespread freeze across the region. With
northwest orographic flow and 850mb temperatures below 0C, some
light snowfall will be possible for higher elevations above 4000
ft across the mountains. A significant return of cold air appears
likely early to mid next week bringing an early taste of winter.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM EST Tue Nov 4 2025

Dense fog and LIFR conditions will continue for the next couple of
hours or so this morning. For the remainder of the TAF period, VFR
will prevail with light/variable winds under the influence of
high pressure. A gradual increase in winds tonight/Wednesday
morning, may prevent widespread fog from forming.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             68  44  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  66  42  70  45 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       64  42  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              62  36  67  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Cherokee-
     Clay.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
     Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-
     Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-
     Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-
     Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-
     Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest
     Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast
     Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Lee-Russell-
     Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JB
AVIATION...KS