Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
936 FXUS64 KMRX 041117 AAA AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 717 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 121 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Key Messages: 1. Beautiful weather expected for this 4th of July holiday. 2. There is an outside chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm in the mountains from the Smokies southward, including our NC counties. But most everyone will remain dry. Discussion: Subtle northwest flow aloft will relent today as upper ridging strengthens over the lower and mid Mississippi valley and expands eastward. As such, warm and dry conditions are expected across the forecast area today. Highs will be slightly above normal, but it won`t be oppressively hot because dewpoints will mix out for comfortable afternoon humidity values. The only caveat would be in the mountains from the Smokies southward, including our NC counties. A weak impulse in the waning NW flow aloft will be located over far western NC this afternoon and may provide enough weakness in the strengthening ridge to allow for a shower or two to develop. Similarly, I wouldn`t be surprised if one or two fire off over the southern plateau area as well. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 121 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 Key Messages: 1. Warm and dry conditions continue through the weekend. 2. Increasing rain chances through next week as pattern change looks to be on deck. Discussion: Upper ridging continues to expand eastward from the Mississippi river valley on Saturday, but doesn`t strengthen per se as the northern jet stream becomes more active by Saturday night and shortwave energy moving into the western Great Lakes tamps the ridge down by Sun. Thus Sat and Sun should remain dry most everywhere, with temperatures running only a little above normal. Rain chances gradually increase Monday onward as high pressure gradually shifts to the western CONUS and we get more of an eastern CONUS troughing pattern. This will allow for much more afternoon convection early in the week, with chances for widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage increasing by midweek as the upper pattern pushes a front our direction from the north. Doesn`t look like we get an actual frontal passage, but with an eastern troughing pattern in place, the Atlantic ridge shifting westward, and the front nearby to our north, we should have much better chances for rainfall across the region for Wednesday onward. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 716 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 No changes for the 12z TAF package. VFR conditions with some FEW- SCT060 CU field is all that is expected. High pressure will build overhead today which will also keep winds light. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 95 72 94 72 / 10 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 93 69 93 70 / 10 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 93 69 94 69 / 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 65 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CD LONG TERM....CD AVIATION...CD