867
FXUS64 KMRX 300524
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
124 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Key Messages:

1. Heat Advisory in effect today for Heat Indices in the low 100s
up to 107 degrees.

2. Today through Friday, a few strong storms are possible, the
main hazards will be wind gusts up to 50mph and localized heavy
rainfall which could lead to flash flooding. Highest POPs are
Thursday and Friday.

3. Cooler temperatures expected by the end of the week and into the
weekend.

Discussion:

Today should be a similar setup compared to yesterday. Another Heat
Advisory is in effect for the central and southern TN valley with
Heat Indices ranging from 104F to 107F. Isolated convection is
expected again this afternoon. The highest chances will be across
the east TN mountains and mostly dry for valley locations. Strong
gusty winds up to 50 mph and heavy rainfall, leading to
flash flooding, possible with any stronger storms.

Our cold front approaches on Thursday and will linger across the
area into Friday. This will allow increased POPs during this
timeframe. With the arrival of the trough, wind profiles become
slightly more conducive for a few stronger storms. 0-6km shear will
range from 15 to 20kts during this time. This means storms will have
the ability to better organize, slightly, compared to our typical
summer-time pulse storms. So while severe weather isn`t anticipated
as of now, a few strong storms and an isolated severe can`t be
ruled out. Heavy rainfall is also expected, which may lead to
isolated flash flooding.

Cooler temperatures still expected this weekend and into the first
of next week behind the cold front. Daily highs will generally be in
the low to mid 80s with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s. At the
end of the period, models are showing a shortwave trough moving
into the area, which would provide another good shot of precip
across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Patchy fog and low clouds possible again tonight at TRI. MVFR or IFR
conditions possible if any fog or low cloud can form, but otherwise
VFR expected to remain predominant. Past 15z or so, VFR conditions
with light winds will be dominant, with another round of scattered
TS in the valley after 21z or so, with a low probability convection
lingers between 00z and 06z. Brief reductions in visibility during
any TS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             94  75  93  74 /  40  40  80  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  94  74  91  74 /  50  40  70  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       95  73  91  73 /  40  30  70  30
Tri Cities Airport, TN              91  70  88  70 /  50  40  70  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Hamilton-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-
     Meigs-North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-
     Roane-Sequatchie-West Polk.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...Wellington