602
FXUS64 KMRX 171118
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
618 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1231 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

- Afternoon relative humidity will be extremely low again today.

- Mild temperatures today. Warmer weather to return Tuesday
  through Friday, with significant warm weather Knoxville and
  south Wednesday and Thursday.

- Light rainfall Tuesday night with potential for a few
  thunderstorms. Medium rain chances return on Thursday with
  additional rain likely on Friday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

Today is East Tennessee chapstick day, because we`ll need all
manners of moisturizers with how low relative humidities and
dewpoints are forecast to be today. Underneath mainly zonal upper
flow with a building ridge down here at the surface, today is mild
temperature wise, but the quite dry vertical atmosphere will allow
very efficient mixing this afternoon. Given how yesterday turned
out, wouldn`t be surprised to see observations go slightly lower
than forecast with today having been the drier of the two days
forecast wise. Holding off on issuing another fire danger
statement for today, winds are expected to be lower than yesterday
area wide and should not be a factor in fire danger, except across
the far northeastern mountains.

Tonight into Tuesday low level flow will strengthen from the
southwest, gradually recovering surface moisture. An attempt at a
warm front will be passing by on Tuesday but given we`ll likely be
dragging on moisture recovery, not certain rain will reach the
surface, but the odds are better along the Plateau. Tuesday night
into Wednesday the Midwestern shortwave will pass by to our
north, likely bringing rain and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder
judging by the elevated thin CAPE profiles to primarily our
northern counties into VA. Rain amounts continue to look light.

Beyond Tuesday not too much has changed, heights are building
underneath the strong Gulf ridge, our temperatures really reach
into unusually warm for mid November, with Chattanooga flirting
with daily records on Wednesday and Thursday, and then a southern
Rockies upper trough ejects late week into the Midwest. That
trough will, along with upper jet dynamics, likely bring us our
next chances for rain, though totals still remain subdued between
uncertainty over how close it approaches and how the remaining
circulation pattern around it evolves. Heading into the weekend,
the weather looks to be highly uncertain with low chances for
rain as model guidance bickers over the next Pacific trough
entering the southwestern US.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 506 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the period all sites. Winds will
generally be light.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             63  42  73  58 /   0   0  10  50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  59  39  70  56 /   0  10  20  60
Oak Ridge, TN                       58  39  67  54 /   0  10  20  70
Tri Cities Airport, TN              54  35  64  49 /   0  10  30  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...99