Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
518 FXUS64 KMRX 140547 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 147 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 146 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 - Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue for the rest of the week. - A system will bring a return of showers and possibly some thunderstorms to the region Saturday night through Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 146 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Currently early this morning, broad ridging is in place across the region with high pressure well to our north. This general pattern will continue through the middle of the week, keeping temperatures mild during the day and seasonally cool overnight. Rain is also not anticipated during this time. By late in the week, the pattern will begin to shift with high pressure weakening as it drifts to our east. Focus will turn towards deepening troughing to our west with frontogenesis expected. An increasing negative tilt is indicated by many sources as troughing shifts eastward. Ahead of the approaching front, increasing southerly flow is expected throughout the day on Saturday. Models still differ on the exact timing and evolution of everything, in addition to moisture advection in our area. This setup will be conducive for thunderstorm development with a severe risk already outlined well to our west. However, the threat is a lot more uncertain in our area due to the potential early morning timing in some guidance and the front likely not arriving until sometime on Sunday. A slower solution that allows for convection during the day on Sunday would be more conducive for severe weather. The evolution will also affect the strength of a potential low-level jet for mountain winds. With the continued uncertainty, low probability HWO wording will be maintained. Drier and notably cooler conditions are expected by next Monday behind the front. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 146 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 For the rest of tonight into Tuesday morning, the main focus will be fog development, currently forecast at TRI. IFR reductions were included, but a better or worse outcome are both possible. After morning fog lifts, mostly clear skies are expected across the region with a persistent northerly to northeasterly wind. CHA and TYS could see gusts over 15 kts. Winds will decrease again this evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 56 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 52 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 77 52 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 47 74 45 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...BW AVIATION...BW