857
FXUS64 KMRX 061041
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
641 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 629 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Today will be slightly cooler with highs mainly in the upper 80s
  and lower 90s.

- Storms will be more isolated today in most locations and more
  scattered in Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee.
  Southwest North Carolina and Southeast Tennessee may get strong
  to severe storms this afternoon with the primary threat gusty
  winds.

- Showers and storms will be isolated to scattered Monday afternoon.

- Drier conditions return midweek with storms possible toward the
  end of the workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

In the upper levels, a ridge is to the west over the Great Plains. A
trough is over the Northeast. The Tennesee Valley is between these
two features. A minor wave is likely to move through the region this
afternoon bringing isolated and possibly scattered showers and
storms east of I-75, especially close to the mountains and NE
Tennessee/SW Virginia. The North Carolina counties are on the fringe
of the slight SPC risk for today, meanwhile, a marginal risk
extends into southeast Tennessee and along the mountains. Thus,
strong to severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening.
The primary threat will be gusty winds.

At the surface, a cold front will move through the region in the
morning hours. Slightly cooler temps expected today with highs
mainly in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Although, not so much near
Chattanooga, perhaps the cold front will not move through the
southern Valley until the afternoon hours. It is moving very slow at
the moment and currently near the Ohio River.

In the upper levels, the ridge builds back into the region by Monday
afternoon although centered near Oklahoma. Monday will have cooler
temps (although still very warm) with highs in the Tennessee Valley
mainly in the upper 80s. Showers and storms will be isolated to
scattered Monday afternoon as an inverted surface trough forms over
Kentucky and Tennessee.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry as the ridge weakens but is now
centered closer to the region over the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Highs will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s which is a few degrees
above normal.

Thursday and Friday a broad trough moves into the Tennessee Valley
along with a surface front. Scattered showers and storms are likely
if this pattern holds.
A few storms are expected to
develop again this afternoon across east Tennessee. Included a
Prob30 for a few hours at KTRI

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Patchy fog may be an issue for a few hours this morning,
primarily at KTRI. A few storms are expected to develop again
this afternoon across east Tennessee. Included a Prob30 for a few
hours at KTRI. Probabilities appear too low at this time to
include at the other sites but trends will need to be monitored.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions through much of the period across
the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             97  72  91  70 /  10  10  50   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  92  70  89  67 /  30  10  50   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       92  68  89  66 /  30   0  40   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              86  65  84  61 /  50  10  20   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...CD