649
FXUS64 KMRX 091119
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
719 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 518 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

- Cannot rule out a sprinkle or two today in southeastern
  Tennessee near the Georgia state line. Drier air arrives as
  high pressure builds in. Mostly clear sky and dry weather
  through the weekend.

- Fall-like, cool temperatures and dry weather expected through
  this weekend. A slight warming trend early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Isolated patchy fog or low clouds this morning thanks to the
recent rainfall, but much of the area currently looks clear on
nighttime satellite imagery and guidance doesn`t appear favorable
for fog formation, especially with the overnight breeze. A weak
shortwave will be passing through the wider region today, CAMs are
split on the idea of a few sprinkles to light rain showers south
of say Sweetwater or Athens into Georgia associated with this
system, nothing impactful though. Otherwise we enter what appears
to be another extended dry period.

The drier air mass that`s moving into the southern Appalachians will
allow for better radiational cooling at night with lower dewpoints,
so a few locations in northeastern TN into southwestern VA along
with the mountains next couple of mornings may see some 30`s on
their thermometers, but otherwise this is in line with a typical
October. Heading into next week a strengthening anomalous ridge will
build over the Lower Mississippi Valley and increase heights over
us. Ensemble guidance indicates a gentle increase in temperatures
heading into next week, with the ridge also allowing for the dry
weather to continue. No significant weather on the horizon as we
head into the middle of October.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 518 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

There will be varying amounts of clouds generally around 4-6kft,
with the most cloud cover at CHA and the least at TRI. VFR
conditions are expected for the period all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  54  75  52 /  10   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  72  50  74  49 /  10   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       72  49  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              72  42  71  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...99