909
FXUS64 KMRX 081055
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
655 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 652 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

- Very heavy rainfall rates and an increased risk for flash flooding
is expected today, especially over East Tennessee and potentially
southwest North Carolina.

- Medium chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected each
  day through the remainder of the work week especially in the
  afternoon/evening hours. A low risk exists for localized flash
  flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Still looking like today will be the most likely timeframe of the
week for flash flooding, but it is by no means a certainty to see
flooding. The presence of near record precipitable water values,
combined with the weak upper troughing, should allow for scattered
showers and thunderstorms. CAMs have been pretty persistent in
showing this scenario, even if their direct QPF output isn`t
necessarily worrying. Still though, with the highly saturated
environment, tall skinny CAPE profiles, and high freezing levels
will allow for generous hydrometeor production (fancy talk for lots
of rain drops). WPC`s excessive rain outlook has us in a slight
risk, which seems pretty reasonable given the CAMs` persistent
scattered nature. Storms may begin firing early this morning and
then chances will remain high for much of the day, before sunset
likely brings about widespread dissipation of the storms. Shear
values are pretty low given the overall weak wind profiles above us,
so not expecting severe thunderstorms.

As we progress through the week, we`ll keep our muggy atmospheric
profiles, but we`ll gradually lose the little forcing we have as
ridging builds aloft. Guidance struggles to fire anything on
Thursday, and that may well be the lull day of the week in terms of
coverage. The other days all have low to medium high chances for at
least some scattered activity, though terrain may be what fires
first before the valley later into the afternoons. Given the high
moisture content hanging around, a non-zero flood risk will exist
for the week as well. As we hit the weekend we`ll be looking for
signs of any upper support from the jet to our north over the Great
Lakes or any weak shortwaves in the flow aloft to help bring relief
or a pause in the June weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 AM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Reductions are already being observed at CHA with TYS near MVFR as
well. Rain will continue to increase from the south with CHA
likely remaining MVFR or IFR through much of the day. For TYS,
reductions are also likely but not until the afternoon hours.
Coverage of showers and storms will be a lot less at TRI, but any
activity could lead to MVFR conditions. Overnight, all sites are
forecast to be primarily MVFR with IFR possible at CHA but left
out for the time being. Winds during the day will be generally
from the southwest but less than 10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             80  69  85  69 /  90  60  60  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  81  68  84  69 /  90  40  60  40
Oak Ridge, TN                       80  68  83  68 /  90  40  60  40
Tri Cities Airport, TN              87  67  83  66 /  70  40  70  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch through this evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch through this evening for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount
     Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-East Polk-Hamilton-Knox-
     Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-North Sevier-Northwest
     Blount-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-
     Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Monroe-Union-West Polk.

     Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for
     Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock-
     Hawkins-Jefferson-Johnson-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-
     Northwest Greene-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Sullivan-
     Unicoi-Washington TN.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW