928
FXUS64 KMRX 041730
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
130 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Key Messages:

1. Slight chance of a shower/storm in SW NC this afternoon,
otherwise dry conditions continue through Saturday.

2. Slightly above normal temperatures but tolerable humidity levels.

Discussion:

An east-west shortwave trough axis is located across upstate SC and
northern GA, which may lead to a few showers and storms developing
in our SW NC counties in the next few hours. Satellite supports this
as CU development is most vigorous in that area, and some very light
returns are starting to appear on radar. This activity should
dissipate by sunset. On Saturday, the mid/upper ridge will be
building to it peak across the TN Valley, creating stable conditions
that will be difficult for convection to overcome. Some CAMS are
hinting at some isolated showers in the mountains, but the forecast
will follow the NBM`s dry conditions. Dewpoints today have dropped
into the 60s in most spots with afternoon mixing, and that will
likely happen again tomorrow, so humidity levels will be tolerable
with high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Key Messages:

1. Shower/thunderstorm chances increase each day through the first
half of next week, with a potentially wetter pattern by mid week.

2. Increasing humidity with heat index values approaching 100 in the
southern Valley Monday through Wednesday.

Discussion:

The ridge starts to loosen its grip a bit on Sunday as it gets
pinched between a tropical low near the GA/SC coast and an
approaching shortwave trough over the northern MS Valley and Great
Lakes. Forecast soundings on Sunday don`t appear as capped compared
to today and Saturday, and low level moisture increases slightly.
This should allow for a little better chance of afternoon showers
and storms developing in the mountains. Monday looks similar, but
with dewpoints possibly pushing into the 70s during the afternoon,
the slight chance PoP spreads into the Valley. Heat Index values may
start pushing toward 100 in the southern Valley as well.

A front pushes across the OH Valley and toward our area late Monday
as a broad troughing pattern sets up next week across the eastern
Conus. This will allow for a greater chance of afternoon by midweek
as the front gets closer to our area from the north. Doesn`t look
like we get an actual frontal passage, but with an eastern troughing
pattern in place, the Atlantic ridge shifting westward, and the
front nearby to our north, we could be setting up for a wetter
pattern from Wednesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through this TAF period,
with light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             71  94  72  95 /   0   0   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  69  93  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       68  94  69  93 /   0   0   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              63  89  64  89 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DGS
LONG TERM....DGS
AVIATION...DGS