023
FXUS06 KWBC 062001
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EST Fri March 06 2026

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 12 - 16 2026

The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble mean forecasts generally agree on the
mean large-scale circulation pattern over North America for the 6-10 day
period, but there are some differences in the details across the Contiguous
United States (CONUS) and underlying variations in the pattern through the
period. All ensemble means predict a strong mid-level ridge and positive
500-hPa height anomalies over the western Aleutians and Bering Sea, extending
into western Mainland Alaska. In the manual blend, the greatest 500-hPa height
anomalies are centered over the westernmost Aleutians, where they exceed +36
dm. South of this feature, significant negative 500-hPa height anomalies are
centered northwest of Hawaii, with height anomalies reaching at least -18 dm in
the manual blend. Farther east, a mid-level trough of uncertain strength is
anticipated across Southeast Alaska and adjacent Canada, with negative 500-hPa
height anomalies stretching eastward through the central tier of the country.
South of the mid-level trough, a fairly amplified 500-hPa ridge is expected to
cover the eastern North Pacific and some portion of the west-central and
southwestern CONUS. Models are not in good agreement on the strength and
position of this mean feature, but the manual blend favors a more amplified
solution consistent with the pattern across other parts of North America and
the adjacent oceans. A mid-level trough is forecast to extend southward from
the broad, flat area of negative 500-hPa height anomalies through central
Canada, into part of the interior eastern CONUS; however, how far south this
feature extends is not consistently depicted in the ensemble means. The
official manual blend favors the most amplified solution, which is the Canadian
ensemble (CNENS) mean. This is more consistent with yesterday`s European
ensemble (ECENS) mean, and supported by the fact that most ensemble means and
dynamical models show a farther south solution than yesterday except the ECENS
mean, which was already more amplified than other guidance yesterday. Models
are generally supportive of a slowly progressive pattern over the course of the
period, more so across the mid-latitudes of North America than other areas. At
the surface, this supports a low surface pressure center initially over or near
New England to pull off to the northeast early in the period, with a trailing
frontal system moving across the eastern CONUS which should act as a focus for
heavier precipitation.

This mid-level evolution supports above-normal temperatures across the southern
half of the CONUS, and across the west-central CONUS into Oregon under positive
500-hPa height anomalies. The odds for warmer than normal conditions exceed 80
percent in parts of the Southwest. Downstream, the northward extent of the mean
warmth in the eastern CONUS is uncertain, with the GEFS raw and reforecast
temperatures pushing enhanced chances for above-normal temperatures well north
into the Great Lakes and southern New England. The ECENS and CNENS are less
bullish with the warmth, keeping enhanced chances for above-normal temperatures
south and southeast of the Ohio River. The CNENS mean is the most aggressive in
favoring cold air as far south as the Tennessee Valley. While the more
amplified solution is preferred, the CNENS looks a little too forceful with the
cold air. The autoblend was similar to the GEFS output, so the manual blend was
adjusted to keep increased chances for above-normal temperatures no farther
north than the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic region. Farther north, the strong
500-hPa ridge centered over the western Aleutians concurrent with negative
height anomalies over parts of eastern Alaska supports arctic high pressure
prevailing across most of the state. This would favor subnormal temperatures
statewide, with the most enhanced chances (over 70 percent) along the southern
tier. Warmer than normal conditions are strongly favored across Hawaii,
consistent with the consolidation, and with the forecast southeasterly
mid-level flow and the strong mid-level trough located northwest of the state.

Higher than normal precipitation totals are anticipated across the northern
tier of the CONUS, and from the Mississippi Valley eastward. The best odds for
above-normal amounts (above 50 percent) are across the Northwest and the
northern Rockies, under a strong fetch of Pacific air. The frontal boundary
moving slowly through the eastern CONUS supports heavier than normal
precipitation across the region, with chances exceeding 40 percent. This is
consistent with the analogs and teleconnections, and represents a significant
westward expansion from the autoblend. Across Alaska, the pattern and the
relatively dry March climatology favors only nominally increased chances for
below-normal precipitation in the southwestern quarter of the state closest to
the mid-level ridge, and marginally enhanced chances for heavier than normal
precipitation over the northeastern Mainland and Southeast Alaska. Meanwhile,
the strong mean trough northwest of Hawaii heavily favors above-normal
precipitation for the period, consistent with most guidance including the
consolidation. The likelihood of above-normal precipitation exceeds 80 percent
statewide.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 9% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 13% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, 13% of Today`s operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8, and
65% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, due to
general agreement among ensemble means on the longwave 500-hPa height pattern,
offset by differences in the evolution of 500-hPa heights in the eastern CONUS,
and differences in the temperature and precipitation tools over the eastern
CONUS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 14 - 20 2026

Ensemble mean forecasts for the 8-14 day period from the 0Z ECENS, GEFS, and
CNENS are highly consistent in the placement of 500-hPa features, but there are
differences in the forecast 500-hPa height anomalies associated with each
significant feature. In the mean, all models maintain a strong 500-hPa ridge
centered near the western Aleutians, and significantly below-normal mid-level
heights farther east, centered near Hudson Bay. Farther south, models generally
agree on mid-level ridges centered over or near the southwestern CONUS and in
the North Atlantic east of Atlantic Canada. Slightly above-normal heights
extend between these two features across part of the southern tier of the
CONUS, with lower heights farther north over the eastern half of the CONUS. The
GEFS mean is less amplified with all mid-level features affecting the CONUS.
The official forecast leans toward the more-amplified CNENS and ECENS means.
Over the course of week-2, the pattern near the CONUS is slowly progressive,
with the North Atlantic anomalous mid-level ridge continuing to drift eastward
away from North America, leaving a stretch of above-normal 500-hPa heights in
its wake. Meanwhile, the upstream mid-level trough amplifies into the interior
eastern CONUS, then begins to deamplify as it approaches the above-normal
heights in the northwestern North Atlantic. To the west, the 500-hPa ridge
settles into the southwestern CONUS while the general pattern around Alaska is
less progressive, with a strong ridge persisting west of the Mainland and
subnormal 500-hPa farther east. The strong mid-level trough northwest of Hawaii
is expected to weaken while drifting northwestward away from the state.

The mid-level ridge in the Southwest supports enhanced chances for above-normal
temperatures centered over the Southwest. Likelihoods exceed 70 percent over
central and southern California, the southern Great Basin, and adjacent part of
the Four Corners region.  Farther east, subnormal temperatures are forecast in
association with the mid-level trough moving through the eastern CONUS. Odds
for unusually cold conditions are greatest (50 percent) in the northern Great
Lakes. Arctic high pressure continues to favor unusually cold weather across
Alaska, with odds exceeding 60 percent over the southern one-third of the
state. Farther south, consistent with the consolidation and the expected
southwesterly mid-level flow, warmer than normal conditions are favored across
Hawaii.

Predicted subnormal 500-hPa heights across central Canada and into parts of the
eastern CONUS favor above-normal precipitation to some extent. Chances for
above-normal precipitation exceed 40 percent under strong Pacific inflow in the
Northwest, and in upsloping low-level flow in the northern Rockies. Likelihoods
for above-normal precipitation also exceed 40 percent in the Appalachians,
Middle Atlantic Region, and Northeast as a mid-level trough traverses the
region. Below-normal precipitation continues to be favored for the southwestern
CONUS from California to the Southern Great Plains under the influence of an
amplified mid-level ridge. Slightly enhanced odds for subnormal precipitation
cover the western half of Mainland Alaska downstream from a strong mid-level
ridge while, but above-normal precipitation is favored farther east under
subnormal mid-level heights, especially in Southeast Alaska near a mean surface
low pressure centered over the Gulf of Alaska. Wet weather is strongly favored
across Hawaii, with the likelihood of above-normal precipitation exceeding 70
percent statewide. This is driven by a strong (though weakening) 500-hPa trough
to the northwest which is expected to slowly drift away from the state while
weakening.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 15% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 30% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 55% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, with
general agreement on the 500-hPa height pattern forecast, offset by differences
on the temperature and precipitation forecasts for the eastern CONUS,
associated with uncertainties regarding the mid-level trough affecting the area.

FORECASTER: Rich Tinker

Notes:


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is
the same as that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below

The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer
(orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal.
Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more
likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being
wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N")
normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of
the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will
be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally
even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry
seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a
forecast of little or no precipitation.

The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as
reference in the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
March 19.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20070320 - 19970219 - 20080302 - 19910222 - 20220316


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20070319 - 19910220 - 19970217 - 20070314 - 20080302


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Mar 12 - 16 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    N
AK ALEUTIAN B    B     AK WESTERN  B    B     AK INT BSN  B    N
AK S INT    B    B     AK SO COAST B    B     AK PNHDL    B    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Mar 14 - 20 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    N    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI N    N     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    B    A
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     N    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    N
AK ALEUTIAN B    B     AK WESTERN  B    B     AK INT BSN  B    N
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    B    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$