Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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FXUS06 KWBC 052027
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EST Thu March 05 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 11 - 15 2026
The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble mean forecasts generally agree on the
average large-scale circulation pattern over North America for the 6-10 day
period with some differences on the pattern over the CONUS and underlying
variations in the pattern through the period. All ensemble means predict a
ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the western Aleutians and
Bering Sea extending over western Mainland Alaska. A trough and negative
500-hPa height anomalies over the eastern Mainland and Southeast Alaska are
predicted to progress eastward during the period with rising mid-level heights
over the Mainland. A ridge and associated positive 500-hPa height anomalies are
predicted over the northeastern Pacific extending into the southwestern
contiguous United States (CONUS) by all ensemble means, with the ECMWF
predicting the greatest amplitude positive 500-hPa height anomalies extending
into parts of the Pacific Northwest. At the start of the 6-10 day forecast
period, a ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted over the
eastern CONUS from the Mississippi Valley to the Atlantic Coast. While all
ensemble means predict negative 500-hPa height anomalies over Canada extending
southward over parts of the northern CONUS, the ECMWF and Canadian ensemble
models generally predict extension of higher amplitude negative 500-hPa height
anomalies further south into the East as the period progresses, compared to the
GEFS. A trough and negative 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted upstream to
the west of Hawaii by dynamical models.
Above normal temperatures are likely for the western Aleutians, under positive
500-hPa height anomalies. Below normal temperatures are likely for the eastern
Aleutians and Mainland Alaska, ahead of the predicted ridge and under northerly
flow, and likely for Southeast Alaska under negative 500-hPa height anomalies.
Below normal temperatures are favored across the northern tier of the CONUS
from the northern Pacific Northwest into the western Great Lakes region, under
the predicted trough. Under average positive 500-hPa height anomalies, above
normal temperatures are strongly favored for most of the remainder of the
CONUS, including the Southwest where probabilities exceed 80 percent in some
areas. Probabilities favoring above normal temperatures exceed 70 percent for
northwestern Hawaiian Island and 80 percent for southeastern islands,
consistent with the reforecast-calibrated consolidation tool.
Below normal precipitation is favored for the Aleutians under the predicted
ridge and for much of Mainland Alaska, excluding climatologically dry areas in
the north, under northerly mid-level flow. Near to above normal precipitation
is slightly favored for Southeast Alaska and adjacent areas of the Mainland,
ahead of a predicted low pressure system over the Gulf of Alaska. Consistent
with dynamical model forecasts, above normal precipitation is very likely for
Hawaii, ahead of a predicted trough. Below normal precipitation is likely for
central and southern areas of the western CONUS, under the predicted ridge.
Above normal precipitation is favored for the Pacific Northwest eastward into
the north-central CONUS, with strong zonal flow between positive and negative
500-hPa height anomalies. Above normal precipitation is favored for the Gulf
Coast and eastern half of the CONUS, consistent with the reforecast-calibrated
precipitation consolidation.
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, due to
general agreement among ensemble means on the longwave 500-hPa height pattern
forecast, offset by differences in the 500-hPa height forecast and the model
temperature and precipitation tools over the eastern CONUS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 13 - 19 2026
Ensemble mean forecasts for the 8-14 day period from the 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and
Canadian models are similar to their respective 6-10 day period forecasts, with
some evolution of the 500-hPa height pattern. The ECMWF continues to predict a
more amplified overall pattern relative to the GEFS. Models predict persistence
of a ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the western Aleutians and
Bering Sea. Dynamical models predict negative 500-hPa height anomalies
associated with a trough over most of the Mainland and Southeast Alaska, with
some model differences on the extent and amplitude of negative 500-hPa height
anomalies over the western Mainland. A predicted ridge and positive 500-hPa
anomalies over the southwestern CONUS are predicted to expand northward into
Washington and Northern Rockies by the ECMWF and Canadian ensemble means, as
well as the manual blend of models, while the GEFS predicts slightly negative
500-hPa height anomalies over this region. The ECMWF ensemble mean was weighted
slightly higher in the manual blend, due to recent skill. A predicted trough
centered over the Great Lakes region expands southward into the Ohio Valley and
eastward into the Northeast during the 8-14 day period, with the ECMWF ensemble
mean predicting negative 500-hPa height anomalies to extend as far south as the
Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas later in the period. There are substantial
differences in the 500-hPa height forecasts for the central Atlantic coast late
in the 8-14 day period, with the GEFS predicting positive anomalies and the
ECMWF predicting negative anomalies. A trough and negative 500-hPa height
anomalies are predicted to the west of Hawaii by all models.
Above normal temperatures continue to be favored for the western Aleutians in
the 8-14 day period, and below normal temperatures continue to be likely for
Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska, due to the persistent ridge over the
Aleutians and predominantly negative 500-hPa height anomalies to the east.
Above normal temperatures are likely over most of the western half of the
CONUS, from the Pacific Coast to the Northern High Plains, the Central Plains,
the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Gulf Coast, as the ridge is predicted to
amplify over the West, especially by the ECMWF ensemble. Below normal
temperatures are favored for parts of the northern central CONUS, the Great
Lakes, the Ohio Valley, and the Northeast, under the predicted trough and
negative 500-hPa height anomalies in the manual blend. Uncertainty among the
models in the 500-hPa height forecast leads to a forecast of near normal
temperatures for the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas.
Below normal precipitation is slightly favored for the Aleutians and western
Mainland Alaska in the 8-14 day period, under the predicted ridge and anomalous
northerly flow to the east. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for
Southeast Alaska and adjacent areas of southeastern Mainland Alaska, ahead of a
surface low over the Gulf of Alaska near the coast. Below normal precipitation
continues to be favored for the southwestern CONUS from California to the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, under a predicted ridge. Above
normal precipitation is favored for northern areas of Oregon and Washington
eastward across the northern tier into parts of the Northern Plains, under fast
zonal flow early in the period before the expanding ridge cuts off the flow.
Above normal precipitation continues to be favored for the Great Lakes region,
the Mid-Atlantic, the Northeast, as well as parts of South Texas and South
Florida, consistent with most model tools. There is greater uncertainty in the
precipitation forecast for the Southeast, where near normal precipitation is
slightly favored. Above normal precipitation is likely for Hawaii ahead of a
predicted trough.
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, with
general agreement on the 500-hPa height pattern forecast, offset by increasing
spread and differences on the 500-hPa height, temperature, and precipitation
forecast for the eastern CONUS.
FORECASTER: D Collins
Notes:
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is
the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer
(orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal.
Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more
likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being
wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N")
normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of
the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will
be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally
even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry
seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a
forecast of little or no precipitation.
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as
reference in the climate outlooks.
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
March 19.
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20220316 - 19970216 - 20070319 - 20080302 - 19910222
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20070318 - 19910220 - 20070313 - 20220315 - 19970217
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Mar 11 - 15 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A A NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Mar 13 - 19 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA B A IOWA N N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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