Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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FXUS06 KWBC 171929
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Fri July 17 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 23 - 27 2026
The 0Z European ensemble (ECENS), GEFS, and Canadian ensemble (CMCE) means are
in good agreement on the predicted highly amplified 500-hPa mean circulation
pattern across the North American domain and surrounding regions during the
6-10 day period, with the dynamical European (ECMWF) shifting in the direction
of the ensemble means, increasing confidence. The underlying variations in the
pattern through the period are also consistent among the tools, although there
isn`t much change in the pattern over the course of the period. The manual
height blend is based on the GEFS and ECENS meansk along with the dynamical
ECMWF, weighting the GEFS 0z and 6z models more heavily due to its better
consistency over the last few days, but there aren`t marked differences among
today`s array of models. The manual blend indicates a strong anomalous
mid-level ridge with above normal 500-hPa height anomalies settling over the
western Contiguous United States (CONUS) with an axis extending northward
through interior western Canada. The axis position is somewhat farther east
than yesterday from the northern High Plains and Rockies northward. Meanwhile,
a mid-level trough and slightly below normal 500-hPa heights are predicted over
the northeastern CONUS while a stubborn subtropical mid-level ridge persists
from the southeastern CONUS into the Gulf and western Atlantic. An anomalous
trough and below normal 500-hPa heights are forecast over the Bering Sea and
much of Mainland Alaska north of a flat ridge centered south of the Aleutians.
Near to modestly above normal 500-hPa heights are predicted in the vicinity of
the Hawaiian Islands.
Above normal temperatures are favored across most of the western CONUS and
across Florida, the Gulf Coast, and adjacent Southeast in concert with
anomalous mid-level ridging. Confidence is high (greater than 60 percent
chance) for above normal temperatures over parts of the Northern Intermountain
West and from the southern Great Plains through far southern California.
Chances for above-normal temperatures top 50 percent from most of the southern
and western Plains, the southern Rockies, and the Southwest northward to the
Canadian Border, and across southern Florida. Below normal temperatures are
favored from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast in association with the mid-level trough. Below normal temperatures
are favored for Mainland Alaska due to the mid-level trough there, with
enhanced odds for above-normal temperatures limited to the southeasternmost
portions of the state and the western Aleutians. Confidence for subnormal
temperatures is high (greater than 50 percent chance) over the southwestern
quarter of Mainland Alaska closest to the mid-level trough axis. Above normal
temperatures are likely across Hawaii, due largely to observed above normal
SSTs in the adjacent Pacific, especially around the Big Island.
Subtropical ridging is forecast to evolve into a favorable position and
orientation for enhanced monsoonal moisture advection through a large part of
the interior western CONUS. Above normal precipitation is favored with chances
exceeding 40 percent across much of the Interior West and Rockies, with
probabilities exceeding 50 percent across parts of the Northern Great Basin and
Northern Intermountain West. Farther east, odds for surplus precipitation
exceed 40 percent over the eastern Carolinas and adjacent areas related to a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary that is expected to set up along the southern
and southeastern edges of the mid-level trough over the Northeast. Meanwhile,
enhanced southerly surface moisture flow from the Gulf and the potential for
thunderstorm activity around the rim of the mid-level ridge axis slightly
increases the chances for above normal precipitation over much of the central
and eastern CONUS, except in the south-central Great Plains (in anticyclonic
flow downstream from the mid-level ridge center) and near the Great Lakes (in
anticyclonic flow just upstream from the mid-level trough axis). Below normal
precipitation is slightly favored over parts of the Southern Great Plains,
supported by the ERF consolidation precipitation forecast and both the raw and
reforecast output from the GEFS and the ECENS. Above normal precipitation is
favored for most of Alaska, associated with predicted mean cyclonic flow
downstream from a mid-level ridge. A tilt toward above normal precipitation is
indicated for Hawaii, consistent with output from the ensemble means and the
mid-level pattern which could bring moisture in from tropical activity farther
east.
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 35% of Today`s 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered
on Day 8, 15% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 20%
of Today`s operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to
good agreement among ensemble means and ECMWF on the 500-hPa height pattern,
offset by relatively subtle differences among model temperature and
precipitation tools.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 25 - 31 2026
The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble mean solutions for the 814 day
period predict a fairly consistent 500-hPa circulation pattern, with the
mid-level ridge/trough pattern essentially persisting across North America.
Anomalous ridging centered over the western CONUS is forecast to slowly
de-amplify by the ensemble means, but this may be the result of increased
ensemble member spread later in the forecast period. The center of the
subtropical ridge is generally expected to remain in a fairly favorable
position for enhanced monsoonal shower activity, with increased activity later
in the period possible due to the position of the 500-hPa height center. The
mid-level trough is forecast to persist across the Northeast, very gradually
weakening as the period progresses. Overall, models seem to move slightly
toward more persistence in the 500-hPa pattern from the 6- to 10-day period
relative to yesterday over and near the CONUS. Mid-level troughing is expected
to persist across and just west of Mainland Alaska, and near to modestly above
normal mid-level heights are forecast across Hawaii.
Above normal temperatures are favored over most of the western and central
CONUS due to a continuation of anomalous ridging and enhanced southerly surface
moisture flow from the Gulf. Chances for anomalous warmth exceed 60 percent
from the Southwest through the southern Plains northward into portions of the
central Rockies and central High Plains. Warmer than normal conditions are also
favored across Florida near the stubborn sub-tropical ridge, exceeding 60
percent in southernmost sections of the state. Near to below normal
temperatures are favored from the eastern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley,
Appalachians, and Carolinas northward to Canada and eastward to the Atlantic,
especially east of the Appalachians in the northeastern quarter of the CONUS.
This is consistent with a blend of the guidance derived from the ensemble
means, although the raw output tended to be colder in this region than the
bias-corrected and reforecast output. Below normal temperatures are also
favored in Alaska under subnormal 500-hPa heights and mid-level troughing, but
above normal temperatures are likely across Hawaii, consistent with the
consolidation forecast and above normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific.
Enhanced monsoonal moisture is not expected to be as strong as during the 6- to
10-day period, although increased activity is possible later in the period.
Parts of the Northern Intermountain West have odds for above normal
precipitation topping 40 percent while most other areas from the Rockies
westward have marginally enhanced chances for above normal amounts (34 to 40
percent) except in climatologically dry areas across California. Farther east,
most tools marginally favor wetter than normal conditions across the Lower
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys eastward through the Atlantic Seaboard, as does
the official forecast. There are slightly higher chances for surplus
precipitation (above 40 percent) over the eastern Carolinas in association with
a forecast quasi-stationary frontal boundary. Above-normal precipitation is
nominally favored statewide across Alaska downstream from a mid-level trough,
and above normal amounts are also favored across Hawaii, consistent with raw
and reforecast tools from the ensembles, and the potential for increased
moisture associated with tropical activity to the east.
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 35% of Today`s 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered
on Day 11, 23% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 12%
of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, due to
good model agreement offset by the potential for pattern de-amplication
and the uncertainty regarding differences among the various temperature tools.
FORECASTER: Rich Tinker
Notes:
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is
the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer
(orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal.
Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more
likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being
wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N")
normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of
the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will
be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally
even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry
seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a
forecast of little or no precipitation.
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as
reference in the climate outlooks.
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
August 20.
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20180709 - 20220718 - 20120722 - 20210706 - 20220708
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20180709 - 20220718 - 20220707 - 20110721 - 20210706
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 23 - 27 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 25 - 31 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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