567
FXUS06 KWBC 122002
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EST Wed November 12 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 18 - 22 2025

Model ensembles from the ECENS, GEFS, and CMCE are in good agreement with
respect to the evolution of the synoptic picture over North America as depicted
in 500-hPa height anomalies during the 6-10 day forecast period. Model
solutions generally maintain weak to moderate troughing over the West Coast and
weak to moderate ridging over the eastern third of the Contiguous U.S. (CONUS).
Upstream, an amplified trough is favored to move quickly from the Bering Sea
into the Chukchi Sea, while ridging builds northward from the North Pacific up
into Mainland Alaska.

With persistent ridging over the East Coast, above-normal temperatures are
favored for most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Probabilities are highest
(>70%) over much of the Gulf Coast, and generally decline moving northward.
There is another area of slightly enhanced probabilities (>50%) over portions
of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and near-normal temperatures are most likely
over much of New England with a weak upper level trough overhead. Conversely,
below-normal temperatures are most likely for the western CONUS under
persistent troughing and increased cloud cover from Pacific onshore flow.
Above-normal temperatures are favored for much of Alaska due to strong
southeasterly flow at the surface, with the highest chances (>50%) over
Southeastern Alaska, decreasing to the north and west to near-normal
temperatures being favored for the western North Slope. Ridging over the North
Pacific and positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies favor above-normal
temperatures for Hawaii.

Persistent and fairly deep troughing over the western CONUS results in
above-normal precipitation being favored for most of the CONUS. Probabilities
are highest (>70%) over portions of the Desert Southwest and probabilities
exceeding 50% extend from the southwestern CONUS across the Southern and
Central Plains and into the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Near-normal
precipitation is most likely right along the East Coast, and a slight tilt
towards below-normal precipitation is indicated by most forecast tools over
much of Maine. Southeasterly surface flow favors above-normal precipitation
across Alaska, with highest chances (>50%) over the southwestern Mainland and
Alaskan Peninsula. Hawaii tilts slightly towards above-normal precipitation,
consistent with most forecast tools.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 33% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 34% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 33% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5. Good
agreement among the temperature and precipitation dynamical and statistical
tools, offset by diverging model solutions with respect to evolution of
synoptic features over the North Pacific.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 20 - 26 2025

Ensemble solutions have more spread with respect to the rearrangement of
large-scale features over the North Pacific, but all favor a wavetrain to
become established across North America, with strong positive height anomalies
over the North Pacific, weak troughing over the western CONUS, weak ridging
over the Eastern Seaboard, and weak troughing over the North Atlantic. This
wavetrain is favored to become established early in week-2 resulting in a
similar outlook to the 6-10 day period.

Above-normal temperatures continue to be favored east of the Rockies, exceeding
60% chances over the Gulf Coast and Southeastern U.S. and 50% probabilities
extending north along the Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes region.
Below-normal temperatures are favored to persist west of the Rockies during
week-2, with the highest chances (>%50) over portions of the Desert Southwest.
In Alaska, odds tilt towards above-normal temperatures for Southeastern Alaska
and much of the Mainland, except for the North Slope, much of the Interior, and
Yukon delta, where near-normal temperatures are most likely. Continued positive
height anomalies to the north and relatively warm SSTs favor above-normal
temperatures for Hawaii.

Weak but broad troughing over the West Coast along with increasing return flow
around high pressure over the western Atlantic tilts the odds towards
above-normal precipitation for most of the CONUS. Chances exceed 50% for
portions of the Desert Southwest, Southern and Central Plains, and Lower and
Middle Mississippi Valley, based on the synoptic pattern and supported by most
forecast tools. Near-normal precipitation is indicated along much of the East
Coast, as well as the West Coast north of San Francisco Bay. Above-normal
precipitation continues to be favored for most of Alaska under continued
southeasterly flow at the surface. Forecast tools also favor a slight tilt
towards above-normal precipitation for Hawaii.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 33% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 34% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 33% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5. Good
agreement among the temperature and precipitation dynamical and statistical
tools is offset by diverging model solutions early in the forecast period.

FORECASTER: Daniel Barandiaran

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
November 20.






6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 18 - 22 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    B
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 20 - 26 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    N    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$