855
FXUS06 KWBC 042002
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EST Tue February 04 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 10 - 14 2025

The dynamical models are in good agreement regarding the mid-level height
pattern across North America during the 6 to 10 day period. A mid level trough
and associated negative 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast across the
western contiguous U.S. (CONUS) into the Northern Plains and Upper-Mississippi
Valley. The trough is less deep today across the West relative to yesterday.
Meanwhile, a mid-level ridge is forecast across the southeastern CONUS. A full
latitude ridge is forecast across the eastern Pacific north through Mainland
Alaska with positive height anomalies exceeding 210m over Alaska early in the
6-10 day period. However, this feature is less persistent through the period
and into week-2 relative to yesterday with the positive 500-hPa height
anomalies splitting west of the CONUS. This introduces more onshore flow into
the West relative to the prior forecast.

Below-normal temperatures remain forecast for much of the CONUS during the 6-10
day period. The strongest probabilities (>80%) are forecast across the interior
northwestern and central CONUS. The forecast five day mean temperature
anomalies from the GEFS are in excess of negative 15 degF across portions of
the Northern Plains. Dynamical guidance consistent for below-normal
temperatures to advect into Southern Plains during the period. Below-normal
temperatures are also forecast across the Great Lakes and Northeast consistent
with the dynamical guidance. Above-normal temperatures remain likely across the
Southeast with chances exceeding 80% across parts of Florida. In Alaska,
above-normal temperatures are favored across much of the Mainland with the
strongest probabilities across the western Mainland and Aleutians upstream of
the mid-level ridge axis. Below-normal temperatures are favored in parts of
Southeast Alaska. In Hawaii, above-normal temperatures are likely.

Above-normal precipitation is forecast across much of the central and
southeastern CONUS. The strongest probabilities are in the southeastern CONUS
where a baroclinic zone between warmer temperatures across the southeast and
cooler temperatures in the northern CONUS may bring one or more rounds of
precipitation to the region, thereby increasing chances for above-normal
precipitation. In the Central Rockies and Northern Plains, dynamical and
statistical guidance are in good agreement for slightly above-normal chances in
this region. Reforecast guidance from the GEFS and ECENS turned sharply wetter
relative to yesterday in the Pacific Northwest with probabilities exceeding 70%
in the region from the ECENS and 50% from the GEFS. Raw dynamical guidance is
not quite as bullish from either and with limited agreement in guidance between
yesterday and today, the forecast indicates a 40-50% chances for above-normal
precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and into northern California. Daily
model guidance indicates that the bulk of the precipitation would begin in the
second half of the period. Below-normal precipitation is favored in Southeast
Alaska and the eastern Mainland with near-normal favored in southwestern
Alaska. Above-normal precipitation is slightly favored in Hawaii with better
agreement among model guidance relative to yesterday.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above-Average, 4 out of 5. Good
agreement among the dynamical and statistical tools is offset by a progressive
pattern.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 12 - 18 2025

As with the 6-10 day period, the week-2 mid-level height pattern is evolving
relative to yesterday across the eastern Pacific and western CONUS. The
mid-level trough across the West, is considerably less deep relative to
yesterday and has retrograded slightly. This introduces a noticeable weakness
in the mid-level positive 500-hPa height anomalies across the eastern Pacific.
This pattern brings in stronger zonal flow into the Pacific Northwest and
California. Negative anomalies persist across much of the north-central CONUS
and into the Great Lakes. Above-normal mid-level heights remain forecast for
the southeastern CONUS. Positive 500-hPa height anomalies and weak ridging
remain forecast for Alaska but the ridge is considerably weaker relative to
yesterday.

Below-normal temperatures remain favored across much of the country during
week-2, as in the 6-10 day period. The strongest probabilities remain across
the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi. There are also
enhanced probabilities of below-normal temperatures for much of the West,
Plains, and Northeast. There is more uncertainty in the extent of the
below-normal temperatures relative to yesterday in the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio,
Middle-Mississippi, Southern Plains and Four Corners where near-normal
temperatures are generally favored. The Gulf Coast and southern Atlantic states
maintain strong chances for above-normal temperatures during week-2. In Alaska,
above-normal temperatures are favored for much of the Mainland but with
considerably weaker probabilities relative to yesterday with a much weaker
ridge favored across the state today. Below-normal temperatures remain favored
in Southeast Alaska. In Hawaii, above-normal temperatures are strongly favored.

Above-normal precipitation is forecast across much of the CONUS. The strongest
probabilities remain in the southeastern CONUS where a baroclinic zone is
likely as in the 6-10 day period with associated continued increased chances
for above-normal precipitation. In the Central Rockies and Northern Plains,
dynamical and statistical guidance are in good agreement for slightly
above-normal chances in this region. The West is forecast to have a more zonal
mid-level flow relative to yesterdays outlook, increasing chances for
above-normal precipitation across much of the region. In Alaska, below-normal
precipitation is favored for the northern and eastern Mainland and into
Southeast Alaska. In Hawaii, a slight tilt towards above-normal precipitation
is favored.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, Fair
agreement among the dynamical guidance is offset by low probabilities and a
more zonal flow pattern.

FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
February 20.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19880129 - 19890201 - 19570203 - 19540115 - 19590214


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19880129 - 19890201 - 19570204 - 19540118 - 19750202


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Feb 10 - 14 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    N     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    B    N
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    N    A
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    B    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Feb 12 - 18 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     N    N
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    B    A
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    B    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    N    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  N    B
AK S INT    N    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    B    B

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$