253
FXUS06 KWBC 171902
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Thu July 17 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 23 - 27 2025

There is good model agreement on the forecast 500-hPa height anomalies across
the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and Alaska today. Mid-level ridging is forecast
across much of the CONUS along and east of the Rocky Mountains. A broad area of
594dm 500-hPa heights is forecast across the south-central and south-eastern
CONUS while the strongest mid-level anomalies are forecast further north over
the western Great Lake region. Meanwhile, a mid-level ridge across the Aleutian
Islands is helping to amplify a trough along much of the West Coast of North
America.

The 6-10 day temperature outlook favors above normal temperatures for most of
the central and eastern CONUS with maximum probabilities of 80-90% for areas in
the central and lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. This is supported by
the temperature consolidation and most of the other temperature guidance, and
is attributed to predicted anomalous mid-level ridging and broad low-level
southerly flow. The exception to this large area of favored relative warmth is
for favored below normal temperatures for the western Intermountain region,
Pacific Northwest and California. These areas are predicted to be under the
influence of weak mid-level troughing  over the eastern Pacific. In Alaska,
near to below normal mid-level heights over eastern Mainland bring increased
chances for below normal temperatures to much of Mainland Alaska and in a
change from yesterday to Southeast Alaska. Guidance has a relatively strong
mid-level trough over Southeast Alaska that may bring unsettled weather and
cloudy conditions to the region, increasing chances for below normal
temperatures. Warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Central
Pacific favor above normal temperatures in Hawaii, supported also by the
Hawaii-CON and the auto-blend.

The 6-10 day precipitation outlook favors wetter than normal conditions across
much of the northern CONUS, due to mid-level troughing across the West Coast
bringing onshore flow into the region. While across the Plains and Great Lakes,
increased chances for enhanced convection across the top of the mid-level ridge
brings elevated probabilities for above normal precipitation to the region.
Along the Gulf Coast a tropical wave may bring elevated chances for above
normal precipitation to the central Gulf Coast. Elsewhere near to below normal
precipitation is favored beneath the mid-level high pressure. In Alaska,
troughing over central Alaska and the northern Bering Sea favors above normal
precipitation for most of the state, except for near to below normal
precipitation being favored along the central-southern coast under the northern
flank of a strong mid-level ridge. For Hawaii, near normal precipitation is
favored for most of the state with mixed guidance among the available tools.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 20% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 20% of Today`s 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered
on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 20%
of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5.  Good
agreement among the 500-hPa circulation forecasts offset by some differences
among the temperature and precipitation dynamical and statistical tools.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 25 - 31 2025

The forecast height pattern for week-2 is similar to the 6-10 day period. There
is some retrogression of the mid-level height pattern relative to the prior
period with the strongest mid-level height anomalies over the CONUS shifting
towards the Northern Plains. All of the dynamical model ensemble guidance is
developing a stronger trough over the Northeast relative to yesterdays
forecast. The mid-level ridge and associated positive 500-hPa height anomalies
over the Aleutian Islands remains in the week-2 forecast. However guidance has
lower anomalies relative to the 6-10 day period. The ECENS is developing a
stronger mid-level trough over Southeast Alaska and off the West Coast of the
CONUS while the GEFS and CMCE maintains a relatively weaker feature.

Above normal temperatures remain strongly favored across most of the CONUS
during the week-2 period beneath strong mid-level ridging. Dew points are also
favored to be elevated across much of the eastern CONUS. Near to below normal
temperatures are favored along the West Coast and separately in New England.
Both regions are forecast to be influenced by weak mid-level troughs. In
Alaska, tools are relatively mixed today across most of Mainland Alaska. The
exceptions are across the northeast Mainland and down into Southeast Alaska.
Meanwhile, above normal is slightly favored for south-central and southwestern
Alaska. In Hawaii, above normal temperatures continued to be favored into the
week-2 period.

As in the 6-10 day period, above normal precipitation is favored across the
Northern Plains and Great Lakes. The mid-level ridge retrograding towards the
West may dampen chances for organized convection across the region and only a
slight tilt is favored today. Above normal precipitation remains slightly
favored across parts of the central Gulf Coast associated with the continued
influence of tropical moisture. Elsewhere across the CONUS near to below normal
precipitation is favored consistent with the strong mid-level ridge in place.
In Alaska, below normal precipitation chances are favored for northern Alaska.
Above normal is favored for Southeast Alaska with near normal elsewhere. In
Hawaii, near normal precipitation is favored with mixed guidance among the
tools.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 20% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 20% of Today`s 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered
on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 20%
of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Near average, 3 out of 5. Good
agreement among the 500-hPa circulation forecasts offset by larger differences
among the temperature and precipitation dynamical and statistical tools
relative to the 6-10 day period.

FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
August 21.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19520713 - 19780720 - 19720717 - 19990714 - 19780708


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19520712 - 19990715 - 19720718 - 19810724 - 19780721


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 23 - 27 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    N
SRN CALIF   B    B     IDAHO       N    N     NEVADA      B    B
W MONTANA   N    N     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    N    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    B    N



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 25 - 31 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    B
TENNESSEE   A    B     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    N    N
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       B    N
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  N    N
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    B    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$