537
FXUS06 KWBC 031902
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Thu April 03 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 09 - 13 2025

The 0z GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE are in good agreement regarding an amplified
500-hPa height pattern across North America. Weak troughing is forecast over
the eastern contiguous U.S. (CONUS), with ridging becoming established across
the west-central CONUS. Troughing initially forecast across central Alaska is
predicted to weaken, with ridging and positive height anomalies expanding over
the state by the end of the period. Todays manual 6-10 day 500-hPa height
blend depicts above normal heights across much of the western CONUS, and below
normal heights over the southeastern quadrant of the CONUS. Near normal heights
are favored across the northeastern CONUS. Near- to slightly below normal
heights are depicted over much of Mainland Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula,
with above normal heights forecast over the western Aleutians, far eastern
Mainland, and Southeast Alaska.

Probabilities for below normal temperatures are increased over much of the
eastern CONUS behind a frontal boundary predicted to move through at the outset
of the period, with the highest chances (greater than 70 percent) across parts
of the Southeast. There are concerns for frosts or freezes across some areas as
relatively colder temperatures coincide with emerging vegetation. Ridging
forecast across the West favors elevated probabilities of above normal
temperatures. Troughing predicted over central Mainland Alaska supports
increased chances for above normal temperatures over the southern and eastern
parts of the state due to enhanced southerly flow. Conversely, below normal
temperature chances are increased on the backside of the mean trough axis
across western Mainland. Increasing mid-level heights over the Aleutians
support enhanced near to above normal temperature chances. Above normal
temperatures continue to be favored across Hawaii.

A broad area of enhanced below normal precipitation probabilities are forecast
across much of the western CONUS and building into the Great Plains, Midwest,
and Southeast as surface high pressure becomes established. A coastal storm is
forecast to develop on the eastern seaboard during the period, this may bring a
period of unsettled weather to parts of the East Coast, slightly elevating
chances for above normal precipitation. Elevated probabilities for above normal
precipitation are favored in Southeast Alaska due to enhanced onshore flow
ahead of mid-level troughing. Near to below normal precipitation chances are
increased across the southwestern Mainland and the Aleutians underneath a more
northerly mid-level flow pattern with near normal precipitation favored over
the remainder of Mainland Alaska. Above normal precipitation is forecast across
Hawaii supported by the consolidation forecast tool.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 10% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 20% of Today`s 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered
on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30%
of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above Average, 4 out of 5. Due to
good agreement in the model height pattern.


8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 11 - 17 2025

The 500-hPa height pattern predicted during week-2 is less amplified to that of
the 6-10 day period, with some eastward progression of the features. The
dynamical models remain in agreement regarding ridging  across the central
CONUS and weak troughing across the East Coast and in the Pacific Northwest for
the period mean. Weakly above normal heights are depicted across Alaska
underneath a weak trough persisting across the central Mainland. Larger
positive height anomalies are forecast across the Aleutians and the far western
Mainland associated with ridging centered across eastern Russia and the Bering
Sea.

Below normal temperature probabilities remain slightly favored in parts of the
Southeast with near normal otherwise favored for most areas east of the
Mississippi. Enhanced probabilities of above normal temperatures are indicated
across the West, especially the Four Corners (>70%), under the forecast
positive 500-hPa height departures. Warming temperatures are forecast across
the Plains and Mississippi Valley resulting in an eastward expansion of the
enhanced above normal temperature probabilities to include these areas. Chances
for above normal temperatures persist across southern Alaska due to continued
southerly flow. A slight tilt toward below normal temperatures is favored over
the western Mainland. Increased probabilities for above normal temperatures
remain forecast across Hawaii.

Ridging over the West, combined with surface high pressure over the East,
favors increased chances for below normal precipitation over much of the CONUS.
The strongest probabilities are across parts of the southwestern CONUS and in
the Great Lakes, the Ohio, Tennessee, and Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys,
and the Southeast. An area of surface low pressure development along the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Coast is possible during the week-2 period,
increasing chances for near to above normal precipitation for this region. A
slight tilt toward below normal precipitation remains favored across for
southwestern Mainland Alaska underneath slightly enhanced northerly mid-level
flow. Near normal precipitation is favored for much of the rest of the mainland
associated with weak troughing across the Central Mainland. Above normal
precipitation chances are increased across Hawaii.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 10% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 25% of Today`s 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered
on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 25%
of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About Average, 3 out of 5, due to
good agreement among the dynamical guidance offset by a progressive pattern.

FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
April 17.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19630403 - 19650417 - 19670314 - 19540323 - 19960328


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19630404 - 19650415 - 20030331 - 19670313 - 19540322


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Apr 09 - 13 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     N    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    B     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    B     MICHIGAN    B    B
INDIANA     B    B     OHIO        B    N     KENTUCKY    B    N
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     B    B     NEW YORK    B    N
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       B    N
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    N
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    B    A
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  B    N     GEORGIA     B    B
FL PNHDL    B    B     FL PENIN    B    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N
AK ALEUTIAN B    B     AK WESTERN  B    B     AK INT BSN  B    N
AK S INT    N    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Apr 11 - 17 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    B
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    B     MISSISSIPPI N    B     MICHIGAN    N    B
INDIANA     N    B     OHIO        N    B     KENTUCKY    N    B
TENNESSEE   N    B     ALABAMA     N    B     NEW YORK    N    N
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        N    N     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  N    B
MARYLAND    N    N     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    N
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  B    B     GEORGIA     N    B
FL PNHDL    B    B     FL PENIN    B    B     AK N SLOPE  N    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    B     AK WESTERN  N    B     AK INT BSN  N    N
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$