168
FXUS06 KWBC 191902
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Sun July 19 2026

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 25 - 29 2026

Model solutions for 500-hPa height anomalies from the 0Z GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE
are in good agreement with regard to the synoptic picture over North America
and surrounding regions and feature a relatively amplified wavetrain for this
time of year. Ridges are depicted over the Bering Sea, the west-central
Contiguous U.S. (CONUS), and east of the Canadian Maritimes, while troughing is
favored over the Gulf of Alaska and Hudson Bay. The largest and most
influential feature of these is the large, amplified ridge located near the
country`s midsection, with multiple ensembles indicating a large closed 594-dm
contour over the Great Basin and Great Plains that persists throughout the
extended-range forecast period. This forecast pattern has been consistent for
several model cycles, further increasing confidence in model guidance.

The strong and persistent ridge described above strongly favors above-normal
temperatures across much of the western and central CONUS. Probabilities above
60% are almost universal across the Great Plains, Rockies, and Great Basin, and
exceed 70% for large portions of these regions. Chances of above-normal
temperatures are weaker but still favored across the Mississippi, Tennessee,
and Ohio Valleys and the Southeast U.S. Near- to weakly below-normal
temperatures are indicated for the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. due
to troughing expected to extend southward from eastern Canada. Troughing over
Alaska favors below-normal temperatures across the state, while continued
anomalously warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) tilt the odds toward
above-normal temperatures for the Hawaiian Islands.

The troughing over eastern Canada is favored to enhance moist return flow off
the Gulf of America, enhancing the potential for afternoon convection and
pushing the odds towards above-normal precipitation across the East Coast and
the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys, with slightly higher chances
(40-50%) for northern Florida and the southeastern coastal plains. A
well-developed thermal low over the Desert Southwest indicates continued
monsoonal activity, favoring above-normal precipitation across much of the
Interior West. Near-normal precipitation is most likely for much of the West
Coast, Great Plains, Great Lakes, Ohio and Upper Mississippi Valleys, in all
cases too far from the two features described to be impacted by them. Troughing
over the Gulf of Alaska tilts the odds toward above-normal precipitation for
much of Mainland and Southeast Alaska, while near-normal precipitation is
indicated for the southwestern Mainland, the Alaskan Peninsula, and the
Aleutian Islands under the influence of ridging over the Bering Sea. Increased
tropical activity in the Central Pacific pushes the Hawaiian Islands towards
above-normal precipitation.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 33% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 34% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 33% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, with
good agreement among model ensemble solutions and forecast tools.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 27 - AUG 02, 2026

The synoptic setup across North America is expected to change little during
week-2 relative to the 6-10 day period. The depicted wavetrain remains
basically stationary through the extended range, with the most noticeable
change is an overall flattening of the wave amplitude, which could easily be
attributed to either an actual weakening of this feature, or simply to
increasing ensemble spread as the forecast extends further ahead.

Above-normal temperatures remain favored across much of the CONUS due to
persistent ridging centered over the Four Corners. Odds exceed 60% across much
of the Great Plains, Rockies, and Interior West, and top 70% for much of the
Desert Southwest, Southern and Central Rockies, and Texas. Continued troughing
over Hudson Bay keeps near- to below-normal temperatures favored for the
northeastern CONUS, while troughing of the Gulf of Alaska favors near- to
below-normal temperatures for the Pacific Northwest and below-normal
temperatures across Alaska. Anomalously warm SSTs indicate above-normal
temperatures for Hawaii.

Troughing over eastern Canada favors above-normal precipitation along the East
Coast and over the Southeast U.S., while continued monsoon activity tilts the
odds towards above-normal precipitation for much of the Desert Southwest.
Near-normal precipitation is indicated for most of the rest of the CONUS. There
is little signal from guidance to push the odds one way or the other, except
near portions of the western U.S.-Canada border, slightly impacted by troughing
over the Gulf of Alaska. This trough also tilts the odds towards above-normal
precipitation for much of Mainland and Southeast Alaska, while near-normal
precipitation remains indicated for the southwestern Mainland, the Alaskan
Peninsula, and the Aleutian Islands. Continued anomalous tropical convection
across the Central Pacific keeps above-normal precipitation most likely for
Hawaii.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 33% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 34% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 33% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, with
good agreement among forecast tools offset by weaker anomalies and increasing
spread among model ensembles.

FORECASTER: Daniel Barandiaran

Notes:


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is
the same as that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below

The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer
(orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal.
Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more
likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being
wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N")
normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of
the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will
be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally
even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry
seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a
forecast of little or no precipitation.

The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as
reference in the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
August 20.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20120724 - 20180710 - 20220708 - 20210706 - 20220718


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20180709 - 20120723 - 20210705 - 20220707 - 20220718


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 25 - 29 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 27 - Aug 02, 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    N
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  B    N
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    B    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$