162
FXUS06 KWBC 262002
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EST Wed November 26 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 02 - 06 2025

The GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE are in good agreement with the longwave 500-hPa
pattern which features a retrograding amplified ridge over the northern Pacific
and Alaska, a downstream trough extending from Hudson Bay to the southwestern
contiguous U.S. (CONUS), and a weakening subtropical ridge along the central
North Atlantic into the Southeast. The amplified mid-level ridge over the
northern Pacific and Alaska is likely to promote Arctic surface high pressure
shifting southward into the lower 48 states beginning by the end of November.
The ensemble mean solutions remain consistent in forecasting strong surface
high pressure becoming centered across the Midwest just prior to the start of
this outlook period, then reinforced again by day 8, December 4. These surface
highs, accompanied by anomalous cold, favor below-normal temperatures across
much of the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley, Midwest, and Northeast. The
subtropical ridge is expected to allow above-normal temperatures to prevail for
the period as a whole across Florida and most of Georgia, but subnormal mean
temperatures are expected farther south than yesterday, which is consistent
with the expected progression of weather features. Farther west, near to
above-normal temperatures are more likely west of the Rockies closer to the
mid-level ridge, although the mid-level trough extension into the Southwest is
expected to trigger one or more rounds of significant precipitation there,
lessening the odds for above-normal mean temperatures.

Between the cold high pressure over the central and northeastern CONUS and the
subtropical mid-level ridge nosing into Florida and adjacent areas, one or two
surface low pressure systems should help establish a wavering quasi-stationary
front from approximately the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the Atlantic
Ocean. This favors a widespread area with enhanced above-normal precipitation
probabilities from the Gulf Coast region northward through along most of the
Eastern Seaboard. The best odds for heavy precipitation stretch along the most
likely mean position of the quasi-stationary front, specifically from the
Louisiana Bayou northeastward through parts of the Southeast and across the
Carolinas. Ensemble means show 1 to 2 inches of rain falling along this stripe,
where probabilities for surplus precipitation exceed 50 percent. Farther west,
the longwave trough draped from eastern Canada into the southwestern CONUS
favors above-normal precipitation throughout the Rockies. Consistent with raw
and reforecast output from the ensembles, the greatest odds for enhanced
precipitation are centered over the northern High Plains, and across portions
of the Southwest near or upstream from the base of the mid-level trough. The
amplified North Pacific mid-level ridge favors below-normal precipitation along
the West Coast from central California northward through Oregon for the period
as a whole, but onshore flow and some retrogression of the mid-level ridge
should increase precipitation around the end of the period.

Enhanced southwesterly surface flow leads to an increased chance of
above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation throughout most of
Alaska, with odds for warmth exceeding 70 percent in parts of southeastern
Alaska where mid-level height anomalies are expected to be largest. However,
the ensemble means remain in good agreement, showing a retrogression of the
amplified ridge toward the Aleutians and Bering Strait by day 10 (December 6),
which would favor dramatic 500-hPa height declines over eastern parts of the
state and a pattern change for Alaska beyond this outlook period.

Based on the GEFS and ECENS, above-normal temperatures and above-normal
precipitation are favored for most of Hawaii, downstream from an anomalous
mid-level trough and upstream from a weak mid-level ridge.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 40% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 25% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, 20% of Today`s operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8, and
15% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to
good agreement and consistency on the evolving longwave pattern among the
ensemble mean solutions, tempered slightly by differences in the southward and
westward extent of mean subnormal temperatures among the reforecast (warmest),
bias-corrected, and raw mean (coldest) ensemble output.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 04 - 10 2025

The GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE favor the amplified 500-hPa ridge retrograding west
to the Aleutians and Bering Strait over the course of week-2 with a broad
anomalous trough over the higher latitudes of most of North America. The ECENS
maintains more amplitude with this feature than the other ensemble means, which
show 500-hPa heights dropping toward normal west of Alaska by the end of the
period. In response to the retrograding ridge upstream, a mid-level trough may
develop along or offshore of western or northwestern North America, but the
models are less consistent with the evolution and amplitude of this feature
than yesterday, with the ECENS keeping subnormal heights north and east of the
CONUS West Coast. Farther east, the ensemble means are more consistent showing
well below normal 500-hPa heights across most of Canada, with negative height
anomalies extending southward along most of the northern tier of the CONUS.
Farther south, a weak semblance of the subtropical ridge lingers over the
south-central and southeastern CONUS, setting up relatively broad,
cyclonically-curved zonal flow across the central and eastern states. This
pattern should keep below normal temperatures and surface high pressure
entrenched across throughout the northeastern quarter of the CONUS. Although
less-meridional mid-level flow should allow temperatures to rebound somewhat
from the southern Great Plains through the Gulf Coast region and into the
Southeast. The largest below-normal temperature probabilities (more than 60
percent) are forecast from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, closest to the
broad area of well below-normal 500-hPa heights. Farther west, return flow on
the backside of the cold high pressure over or near the Northeast should favor
above-normal temperatures from the High Plains and Rockies westward to the
Pacific Ocean. This represents a bit more certainty in this region than noted
yesterday, with models more strongly favoring higher 500-hPa heights over the
West.

The week-2 outlook leans on the wet side for a majority of the lower 48 states
due to the broad cyclonically-curved 500-hPa flow expected to become
established across most of the CONUS. Guidance again shows the best odds for
surplus precipitation in northern and southern parts of the western CONUS, and
in parts of the Southeast where the wavering frontal boundary south of the cold
surface high pressure could serve as a focus for convergence and precipitation
development. The outlook is somewhat drier for parts of the central CONUS to
the northwest of the quasi-stationary frontal boundary.

As the North Pacific mid-level ridge retrogrades and weakens, 500-hPa heights
should drop rapidly across the state, especially eastern sections. The should
abet some incursion of Arctic high pressure into the state, particularly later
week-2. With the timing of this transition uncertain, near normal temperatures
are favored for southeastern parts of the state where conditions will be much
colder by the end of the period. Since the evolving pattern will have the state
downstream from a mid-level ridge, precipitation should decrease over the
course of week-2, with enhanced chances for surplus precipitation limited to
parts of east-central and southeastern Alaska. This is consistent with the
reforecast tools and the consolidation.

Based on the GEFS and ECENS, an increased chance of above-normal temperatures
and above-normal precipitation persists across Hawaii. Positive sea surface
temperature anomalies should also support above-normal temperatures, especially
across the central and northwestern islands.


The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 25% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 50% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to decent
agreement among the ensemble means but significant uncertainties regarding the
placement and timing of individual features. The marked disagreement on the
amplitude of the mid-level ridge west of Alaska further increases uncertainty.

FORECASTER: Rich Tinker

Notes:


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is
the same as that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below

The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer
(orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal.
Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more
likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being
wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N")
normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of
the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will
be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally
even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry
seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a
forecast of little or no precipitation.

The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as
reference in the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
December 18.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19961125 - 19801208 - 19581209 - 19831126 - 19851207


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19961124 - 19851207 - 19911106 - 19581209 - 19801208


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Dec 02 - 06 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   N    A     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    N     OKLAHOMA    B    N
N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    N
ARKANSAS    B    N     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    B    N
INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    B    N
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    N
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    B    A
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Dec 04 - 10 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    N    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    N
ARKANSAS    N    N     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    A     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    B    A
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    N    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$