476
FXUS06 KWBC 021912
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Wed July 02 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 08 - 12 2025

The ECMWF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble models generally agree on the overall
500-hPa height pattern over North America and surrounding regions during the
6-10 day period. The manual height blend is based on 0Z ensemble means,
weighing the ECMWF model greater due to recent model anomaly correlation skill.
The manual blend shows a mid-level trough over Mainland Alaska and the Gulf of
Alaska. Yesterdays models predicted a closed low over the southwestern Alaska
Mainland and adjacent Gulf of Alaska. Todays runs differ in that they predict
this feature to become open-wave, while at the same time connecting with an
Arctic Ocean vortex. The end result of this merger is a rapid falling of
mid-level heights across the state and significantly colder temperatures.
Farther south, a weakening trough is predicted near the northern California
coast. An expanding and amplifying mid-level ridge and positive 500-hPa height
anomalies are forecast across the Western Contiguous United States (CONUS) with
the 594-dm height contour forecast to include most of the southwestern quarter
of the Lower 48 states. Despite a weak trough predicted over the northern half
of the CONUS east of the Rockies, positive 500-hPa height anomalies are
forecast from the Northern Plains eastward across much of the Great Lakes
region, Northeast, and upper Mid-Atlantic. For approximately the southeastern
quarter of the CONUS, 500-hPa heights are favored to be near to slightly above
normal. Weak positive height anomalies are also indicated for the Hawaiian
Islands.

Below normal temperatures are favored for the entire Alaska Mainland, Southeast
Alaska, and the Alaska Peninsula under a predicted trough and below normal
500-hPa heights. For the Aleutians, the temperature guidance varies widely, and
near normal is thought to be the most likely outcome. Above normal temperatures
are favored over most of the western CONUS under positive 500-hPa height
anomalies and mid-level ridging, with probabilities of 70-80% indicated over
the Interior Northwest and eastern Great Basin. A very sharp temperature
gradient is depicted near the central and southern California coast, due to
unseasonably cold water just off the coast. Above normal temperatures are
favored for most areas east of the Mississippi River, extending westward across
Louisiana and eastern Texas, consistent with the ECENS reforecast temperature
tool. There is a slight tilt in the odds towards below normal temperatures over
central and south-central portions of the Plains, supported by the
consolidation and the ECENS reforecast temperature tools. A compromise between
the automated and consolidated temperature tools favors above normal
temperatures across Oahu and Kauai, and near normal temperatures for Maui and
the Big Island, largely mirroring the sea-surface temperature pattern expected
around the Hawaiian Islands.

Above normal precipitation is favored for most of Alaska, excluding the far
western Mainland, due to persistent surface low pressure forecast over the
northwestern Gulf of Alaska and ensuing onshore flow. Above normal
precipitation is also favored for most areas east of the Rockies, consistent
with the various reforecast precipitation tools and GEFS and ECENS raw
precipitation.  An extension of the favored above normal precipitation towards
far southern Arizona is also predicted. The drier conditions over most of the
central and southern Intermountain West forecast by the ECENS-based guidance is
consistent with a 594-dm to 597-dm height contour over that area, indicative of
strong subsidence aloft. Near to slightly below normal precipitation is also
favored over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Above normal
precipitation is favored across Hawaii, consistent with the precipitation
consolidation and above average sea surface temperatures in the region.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Near average, 3 out of 5, with
overall good agreement among models on the mean mid-level height pattern,
offset by uncertainty related to differences among temperature and
precipitation forecast tools.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 10 - 16 2025

ECWMF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble mean forecasts for the 500-hPa height pattern
over North America during the 8-14 day period remain in overall good agreement.
In the manual blend, the predicted trough over Mainland Alaska is forecast to
weaken slightly and become more southwest-northeast oriented. Despite this
positive tilt, unseasonably low 500-hPa heights and increased precipitation
favor relatively cool conditions in Southeast Alaska. Positive 500-hPa height
anomalies persist over the western and far northern CONUS, with most of the
central and eastern CONUS predicted to have mid-level heights near to slightly
above normal. Near normal 500-hPa heights are predicted across Hawaii.

Below normal temperatures are favored for the entirety of Mainland Alaska,
Southeast Alaska, and the Alaska Peninsula in the 8-14 day period, under a
predicted trough. Below normal temperatures are also favored over central and
south-central portions of the Great Plains, supported by the consolidation tool
and the ECENS reforecast temperature tool. Above normal temperature
probabilities are elevated for most of the remainder of the CONUS, with maximum
probabilities of 60-70% depicted for the Northern Rockies. The widespread area
of favored above normal temperatures is consistent with most of todays
temperature guidance. The anomalous warmth indicated across the West is also
supported by a mid-level ridge and positive height anomalies, while in the East
it is largely supported by low-level southerly flow and weak to moderate
positive height anomalies at the 500-hPa level. Above normal temperatures are
favored across the Hawaiian Islands, consistent with the temperature
consolidation and automated temperature tool.

The week-2 precipitation outlook is similar to that predicted for the earlier
6-10 day period. Above normal precipitation is favored for most of Mainland
Alaska, Southeast Alaska, and parts of the Alaska Peninsula due to onshore flow
associated with surface low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Alaska. Most
models and the consolidation favor enhanced probabilities for above normal
precipitation for parts of the Pacific Northwest in week-2. Above normal
precipitation is favored from most of the eastern and central CONUS
southwestward into southern New Mexico and southern Arizona. The higher odds
for above normal precipitation (40-50%) are indicated from the Middle
Mississippi Valley eastward across the Tennessee and southern Ohio Valleys,
continuing eastward across the Mid-Atlantic region. This is the general
vicinity of a predicted near-stationary frontal zone that is expected to
concentrate the heavier precipitation amounts. Above normal precipitation is
favored across Hawaii in week-2, consistent with the precipitation
consolidation and the Auto blend of precipitation tools.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 25% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 35% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Near average, 3 out of 5, due to
good overall agreement on the mean mid-level height forecast, offset by weak
and conflicting signals especially in the precipitation guidance for many areas.

FORECASTER: Anthony A

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
July 17.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20060625 - 20070617 - 20030628 - 20050716 - 20060620


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20060624 - 20060629 - 20070617 - 20010702 - 20030628


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 08 - 12 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     N    A
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 10 - 16 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$