349
FXUS06 KWBC 261902
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Thu June 26 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 02 - 06 2025

Today`s model solutions are in good agreement on the predicted 500-hPa
circulation pattern across North America and surrounding regions during the
6-10 day period. The ECMWF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble means predict a
progressive pattern during the period. The manual 500-hPa height blend is based
on the ensemble means from the GEFS, ECMWF and Canadian models, weighing the
ECMWF model greater due to recent model skill. The resultant manual blend
features amplified mid-level ridges over the northwest Pacific and Mainland
Alaska, while a mid-level trough is predicted over the Gulf of Alaska. A ridge
and positive 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast over the northwestern
contiguous United States (CONUS) and a trough with weaker 500-hPa height
anomalies over the northeastern CONUS. Another trough is forecast over the
coast of California. Slightly above-normal 500-hPa heights are predicted across
Hawaii.

Near to below normal temperatures are favored for parts of southeastern
Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska, while above normal temperatures are
favored over the remainder of  Mainland Alaska, consistent with the Auto
temperature blend of model tools and the temperature consolidation of
calibrated ECMWF and GEFS forecasts. Near to above normal temperatures are
favored over most of the CONUS, under positive 500-hPa height anomalies.
Probabilities for above normal temperatures exceed 60 percent for parts of the
Northern Rockies under the predicted ridge. Below normal temperatures are
favored for portions of the southwestern and south-central CONUS, consistent
with the Auto blend and increased cloudiness due to the flow of moisture into
the region. The temperature consolidation favors above normal temperatures
across most of the Hawaiian Islands, associated with above average sea surface
temperatures in the region.

Above normal precipitation is slightly favored across southern Mainland Alaska
and the eastern Aleutians, consistent with the precipitation consolidation,
ahead of the predicted trough. Near to above normal precipitation is favored
over most of the CONUS (except for western Washington, where below-normal
precipitation is slightly favored), consistent with the precipitation
consolidation and the Auto blend. Probabilities for above normal precipitation
exceed 70 percent for parts of the Southwest monsoon region with predicted
moisture flow into the region. Above normal precipitation is also favored
across the Rockies into the Plains and most areas east of the Mississippi,
consistent with model precipitation forecasts and the flow of tropical moisture
into these regions. Above normal precipitation is favored across Hawaii,
consistent with the precipitation consolidation and above average sea surface
temperatures in the region.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: About-average, 3 out of 5, due to
good agreement between models on the mean mid-level height pattern, with
uncertainty related to a progressive height forecast and differences between
uncalibrated and calibrated temperature and precipitation model forecast tools.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 04 - 10 2025

Ensemble mean forecasts for the 500-hPa height pattern over North America
during the 8-14 day period remain in relatively good agreement, while the
overall pattern evolves during the forecast period. In the manual blend of
model forecasts, a ridge and amplified positive 500-hPa height anomalies
persist over the northwestern Pacific, while a trough is forecast over the Gulf
of Alaska. The predicted ridge and center of positive 500-hPa height anomalies,
over the northwestern CONUS in the 6-10 day period, progresses eastward
slightly over the northern tier of the CONUS in week 2. Slightly above-normal
500-hPa heights are predicted across Hawaii.

Below normal temperatures are favored for southeastern Mainland Alaska, and
Southeast Alaska in the 8-14 day period, while near to above normal
temperatures are favored for the remainder of Mainland Alaska in week 2,
consistent with the Auto blend of model tools and the temperature
consolidation. Above normal temperatures continue to be likely for most of the
northwestern and north-central CONUS, under a predicted ridge and associated
positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Below normal temperatures are favored for
parts of the Southwest with enhanced moisture flow into the region and
cloudiness. Above normal temperatures continue to be favored for much of the
south-central CONUS and Southeast , consistent with the Auto blend and
temperature consolidation. Above normal temperatures are favored across most of
the Hawaiian Islands, consistent with the temperature consolidation.

Above normal precipitation continues to be slightly favored across most of
Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska consistent with model precipitation tools.
Near to above normal precipitation is favored over most of the CONUS in week2
(except for parts of southeastern Texas, where below-normal precipitation is
slightly favored), consistent with the precipitation consolidation and the Auto
blend. Probabilities of above normal precipitation are much enhanced for the
Southwest region in the 8-14 day period with continued moisture flow into the
region from the tropics. Above normal precipitation is favored across Hawaii in
week 2, consistent with the precipitation consolidation and the Auto blend of
precipitation tools.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to
good overall agreement on the mean mid-level height forecast, offset by weak
signals in the precipitation and temperature tools for many areas.

FORECASTER: Luke H

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
July 17.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19520626 - 20040608 - 19940703 - 19990606 - 19840614


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19520629 - 19990605 - 20040610 - 19940703 - 19880709


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 02 - 06 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    B    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 04 - 10 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   N    A     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    N    A
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   N    N     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$