948
FXUS06 KWBC 211914
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Mon July 21 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 27 - 31 2025

Today`s model solutions are in good agreement on the predicted 500-hPa
circulation pattern across North America and surrounding regions during the
6-10 day period. The ECMWF, GEFS and Canadian ensemble means predict a
progressive pattern during the period. The manual 500-hPa height blend is based
on the ensemble means from the GEFS, ECMWF and Canadian models, weighing the
ECMWF model greater due to recent model skill. The resultant manual blend
features mid-level ridging and above normal 500-hPa heights over much of the
contiguous United States (CONUS) along and east of the Rocky Mountains.
Meanwhile, a strong mid-level ridge is forecast across the Aleutian Islands,
while a trough is predicted over the Gulf of Alaska, Southeast Alaska, and
along much of the West Coast of North America. Slightly above-normal 500-hPa
heights are predicted across Hawaii.

The 6-10 day temperature outlook favors above normal temperatures for most of
the central and eastern CONUS. This is supported by the temperature
consolidation and most of the other temperature guidance, and is attributed to
predicted anomalous mid-level ridging and broad low-level southerly flow. The
exception to this large area of favored above normal temperatures is for
favored below normal temperatures along the West Coast. These areas are
predicted to be under the influence of weak mid-level troughing over the
eastern Pacific. In Alaska, near to above normal mid-level heights over much of
Mainland and the Aleutians bring increased chances for near to above normal
temperatures to much of Mainland Alaska and the Aleutian Islands. Guidance
continues to strengthen a mid-level trough over Southeast Alaska that may bring
unsettled weather and cloudy conditions to the region, increasing chances for
below normal temperatures. Warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the
Central Pacific favor above normal temperatures in Hawaii, supported also by
the Hawaii-CON and the auto-blend.

The 6-10 day precipitation outlook favors wetter than normal conditions across
parts of the Northwest due to mid-level troughing. For the Upper Mississippi
Valley through the Great Lakes and portions of the northeastern CONUS,
increased chances for enhanced convection across the top of the mid-level ridge
bring elevated chances for above normal precipitation to the region. Along the
Gulf Coast a tropical wave may bring elevated chances for above normal
precipitation to the central Gulf Coast. Below-normal precipitation is favored
for parts of the Central Great Basin and the Southwest. The monsoon circulation
looks to be disrupted limiting chances for precipitation across the Southwest
while the strong mid-level ridge will likely limit precipitation elsewhere. In
Alaska, troughing over the Gulf of Alaska favors above normal precipitation for
portions of the southeastern state and Southeast Alaska. Below-normal
precipitation is favored for portions of northeastern Alaska. For Hawaii, below
normal precipitation is favored for Kauai, while above normal precipitation is
likely for Oahu, Maui, and the Big Island, consistent with the Hawaii
consolidated precipitation forecast tool.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5.  Good
agreement among the 500-hPa circulation forecasts offset by some differences
among the temperature and precipitation dynamical and statistical tools.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 29 - AUG 04, 2025

Ensemble mean forecasts for the 500-hPa height pattern over North America
during the 8-14 day period remain in relatively good agreement, while the
overall pattern evolves and deamplifies later in the forecast period. In the
manual blend of model forecasts, a ridge and positive 500-hPa height anomalies
is forecast over the western and central CONUS. A mid-level trough is forecast
to develop across the Northeast during week-2. The mid-level ridge and
associated positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the Aleutian Islands remains
in the week-2 forecast. However, guidance has lower anomalies relative to the
6-10 day period. A mid-level trough is forecast over Southeast Alaska, the Gulf
of Alaska, and along the West Coast. Slightly above-normal 500-hPa heights are
predicted across Hawaii.

Above normal temperatures remain strongly favored across most of the CONUS
during the week-2 period beneath strong mid-level ridging and above normal
500-hPa heights. Both the West Coast and the Northeast are forecast to be
influenced by weak mid-level troughs bringing near normal temperatures to the
West Coast and near to below normal temperature chances to the Northeast. In
Alaska, above normal temperatures are forecast over Mainland Alaska and the
Aleutians, while below normal temperatures are predicted over Southeast Alaska,
supported by most of the temperature forecast tools. In Hawaii, above normal
temperatures continue to be favored into the week-2 period, consistent with the
temperature consolidation.

As in the 6-10 day period, above normal precipitation is favored over parts of
the Pacific Northwest extending eastward across the Northern Plains, Upper
Mississippi Valley, and the Upper Great Lakes. Above normal precipitation is
slightly favored over parts of the Southeast,  in association with a tropical
wave developed later in the region. Below normal precipitation is favored
across parts of the southwestern CONUS beneath the mid-level ridge. Dynamical
precipitation tools also support below normal precipitation over portions of
the Lower Great Lakes and the Northeast. In Alaska, near normal precipitation
chances are favored for most of Alaska. Above normal precipitation is favored
for Southeast Alaska, due to troughing over the Gulf of Alaska. In Hawaii, near
normal precipitation is favored with mixed guidance among the tools.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5. Good
agreement among the 500-hPa circulation forecasts offset by differences among
the precipitation dynamical and statistical tools.

FORECASTER: Luke H

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
August 21.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19510701 - 20070803 - 20000804 - 19610727 - 19650709


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19510701 - 19610727 - 20070803 - 19650709 - 19520722


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 27 - 31 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   B    N
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      B    B
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    N     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    B
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    B    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 29 - Aug 04, 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    N    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    B    N
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       B    N
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N
PENN        N    N     NEW JERSEY  N    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    N    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    B    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$