189
FXUS06 KWBC 112001
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EST Tue November 11 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 17 - 21 2025

The GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE remain consistent and in excellent agreement that a
highly anomalous 500-hPa ridge with large positive height anomalies (more than
300 meters) becomes established over Greenland and Davis Strait during
mid-November. To the south of this anomalous mid-level ridge, an amplified
500-hPa trough across the Canadian Maritimes and northwestern Atlantic is
forecast to shift eastward. Multi-model ensemble mean solutions agree that a
vigorous shortwave trough tracks southeastward from the Pacific Northwest to
the southwestern contiguous U.S. (CONUS) early in the period. By days 9 and 10,
model solutions diverge on the longwave pattern from Alaska south to the West
Coast. The ECENS favors more of a full-latitude trough over western North
America, while the GEFS and to some extent the CMCE depict a split flow pattern
with a shortwave ridge near the Pacific Northwest and weaker onshore flow
affecting this region. Teleconnections upon the large positive 500-hPa height
anomaly center over the Davis Strait favors the ECENS solution.

The western CONUS trough and associated negative 500-hPa height anomalies favor
below-normal temperatures across much of the Great Basin, Southwest, and
California. The largest below-normal temperature probabilities (more than 60
percent) are forecast across southern California and southwestern Arizona where
an unusually wet pattern is expected during mid-November. Near normal
temperatures are more likely for the Pacific Northwest as onshore flow has a
moderating effect. Downstream of the southwestern CONUS trough, southerly flow
supports an increased chance of above-normal temperatures for the Great Plains,
Midwest, and Southeast. The high latitude blocking ridge over Greenland coupled
with the amplified trough to its south is likely to result in anomalous
northerly flow through at least day 8 which tilts the temperature outlook
towards below-normal temperatures for parts of New England.

An active pattern is likely across the lower 48 states as multiple shortwave
troughs progress from west-to-east underneath the high latitude blocking ridge.
The amplifying trough over the Southwest is likely to promote low pressure
development across the Southern Great Plains by day 8 or 9 with a subsequent
track northeastward. Therefore, above-normal precipitation is favored for most
of the central and eastern CONUS. Above-normal precipitation probabilities
exceed 50 percent across the Central to Southern Great Plains, Middle to Lower
Mississippi Valley, and Tennessee Valley where the ECENS and CMCE maximize
precipitation amounts with the low pressure system. An increased chance of
above-normal precipitation is also forecast for the western CONUS due to the
amplifying trough and the expectation of enhanced onshore flow from the
northeastern Pacific. The largest probabilities (more than 60 percent) for
above-normal precipitation are forecast from southern California east to the
Southern High Plains due in part to the drier climatology.

An amplified 500-hpa trough over the Bering Sea is likely to result in
anomalous southwesterly surface flow which supports an increased chance of
above-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation for a majority of
Alaska. The North Slope is favored to have near normal temperatures due to
easterly surface flow. The GEFS and ECENS depict near 3 inches of precipitation
across the Kenai Peninsula where above-normal precipitation probabilities
exceed 50 percent.

Based on the GEFS and ECENS, above-normal temperatures and above-normal
precipitation are favored for Hawaii.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to
good agreement among the precipitation and temperature tools in a predicted
amplified longwave pattern.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 19 - 25 2025

Early in week-2, the ECENS, GEFS, and CMCE differ with the longwave pattern
over the northeastern Pacific and western North America. The ECENS favors a
full-latitude trough extending south from Alaska and enhanced onshore flow
affecting the Pacific Northwest, while the GEFS depicts a weak mid-level ridge
across this region. Based on guidance derived from a teleconnection upon the
large positive height anomaly center at the Davis Strait, the ECENS solution
was preferred and weighted most heavily in the manual 500-hPa height blend. In
addition, the CMCE is closer to the ECENS and would favor a wetter outcome for
the Pacific Northwest. Multi-model ensemble means are in better agreement by
the end of week-2 with a developing 500-hPa ridge over Alaska, a downstream
trough over the western CONUS, and a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)
persisting. Given the persistent high latitude blocking over the Northern
Hemisphere and what could be a prolonged -AO, an amplifying ridge over Alaska
may eventually result in anomalously cold temperatures expanding into the
north-central CONUS. Right now, this appears to be more likely to occur beyond
the week-2 time period.

Below-normal temperatures are likely to accompany the persistent amplified
trough over the southwestern quarter of the CONUS. Near normal temperatures are
more likely across northwestern California and the Pacific Northwest where
onshore flow is expected to have a moderating effect on temperatures.
Downstream of the western CONUS trough, southerly surface flow along with
positive 500-hPa height anomalies support an increased chance of above-normal
temperatures from the Great Plains to the East Coast. Above-normal temperature
probabilities are lower across the High Plains as this region may experience a
cooling trend later in week-2.

Similar to the 6-10 day period, the persistent amplified 500-hPa trough over
the West favors an active, wet pattern for the lower 48 states heading into
late November. Early in week-2, the potent shortwave trough over the Four
Corners region is likely to result in surface low development across the
Southern Great Plains with a subsequent track northeastward. The longwave
pattern, predicted by the GEFS and ECENS, would favor a second low pressure
system forming across the central CONUS later in week-2. Therefore,
above-normal precipitation is favored for nearly all of the central and eastern
CONUS. Forecast confidence in the week-2 precipitation outlook is lower east of
the Appalachians as low pressure systems, emerging from the Great Plains, are
expected to weaken as they encounter the high latitude blocking ridge and a
subtropical ridge centered over Cuba. However, precipitation tools have trended
wetter for the Northeast as northerly flow ends early in week-2 and the ECENS
depicts two distinct precipitation events during this 7-day period. Therefore,
near to above-normal precipitation is favored across the Northeast. The
preferred ECENS, with its amplified trough and enhanced onshore flow from the
northeastern Pacific, favors above-normal precipitation throughout the western
CONUS. Above-normal precipitation probabilities are slightly lower (33 to 40
percent) across coastal portions of northern to central California with the
strongest onshore flow predicted to be focused across the Pacific Northwest.

Southwesterly onshore flow early in week-2 favors above-normal temperatures
statewide for Alaska. The enhanced onshore flow also supports an increased
chance of above-normal precipitation for a majority of Alaska with the largest
probabilities (40 to 50 percent) centered across the Kenai Peninsula. Beginning
on day 12 (November 23), a building ridge is likely to bring a drying trend to
the state.

Based on the GEFS and ECENS, an increased chance of above-normal temperatures
and above-normal precipitation are forecast for Hawaii. Positive sea surface
temperature anomalies also support above-normal temperatures, especially across
the northwestern islands.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good
agreement among the temperature and precipitation tools for most of the
forecast domain offset by diverging model solutions on the longwave pattern
along the West Coast early in week-2.

FORECASTER: Brad Pugh

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
November 20.






6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 17 - 21 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   B    A
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     N    A
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Nov 19 - 25 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   B    A
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     N    A
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$