768
FXUS06 KWBC 151901
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Tue July 15 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 21 - 25 2025

Today`s model solutions are in good agreement on the predicted 500-hPa
circulation pattern across North America and surrounding regions during the
6-10 day period. The manual 500-hPa height blend is based primarily on the
ensemble means from the GEFS, ECMWF and Canadian models. The resultant manual
blend features an amplified ridge over the North Pacific and another area of
positive height anomalies over the Chukchi Sea, with weak troughing squeezed in
between over the Bering Sea. Another weak trough is depicted over Alberta and
Saskatchewan, and weak ridging over much of the eastern Contiguous U.S.
(CONUS). Model solutions de-amplify the North Pacific ridge fairly quickly
during the 6-10 day period and amplify ridging over the eastern CONUS. However,
model solutions diverge steadily with respect to this pattern shift, making for
less forecast certainty later in the forecast period.

Positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the eastern CONUS and only minimal
troughing over Canada favors above-normal temperatures across most of the
CONUS, with probabilities of at least 50% being almost universal east of the
Rockies and south of the Great Lakes. Odds tilt towards below-normal
temperatures along the western U.S.-Canada border, under the influence of
troughing to the north, and along the California coast where enhanced
alongshore winds potentially increase marine layer intrusion over land. For
Alaska, troughing over the Bering Sea favors onshore flow into the Mainland,
pushing the odds towards below-normal temperatures, while above-normal
temperatures are favored for Southeastern Alaska, just downstream from the
strong ridge over the North Pacific and thus displaced from this moist influx.
Warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the Central Pacific indicate
above-normal temperatures with Hawaii, supported also by the Hawaii-CON and the
autoblend.

The Bermuda high has weakened somewhat over the last month as depicted in model
ensembles, however a steady stream of Gulf moisture advecting into the Great
Plains and Southeast U.S. continues to be favored, tilting the odds towards
above-normal precipitation for much of the CONUS east of the Mississippi River.
Weak troughing over the Canadian Plains provides some instability and enhanced
odds (40-60% percent chance) of above-normal precipitation along the
U.S.-Canada border and downstream into the Upper Mississippi and Lower Ohio
Valleys, while a weak stationary frontal boundary over the Southeast U.S. and
potential tropical cyclone (TC) genesis near the northern Gulf Coast similarly
enhances the odds of above-normal precipitation for portions of the Southeast
U.S. Troughing over the Bering Sea results in onshore flow for the Alaska
Mainland, favoring above-normal precipitation, while for Southeastern Alaska a
less favorable alongshore flow pattern pushes the odds slightly towards
below-normal precipitation. The consensus among forecast tools indicates
above-normal precipitation for Hawaii, with the exception of the Big Island
where near-normal precipitation is preferred.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 33% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 34% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 33% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5. Very
good agreement among the temperature and precipitation dynamical and
statistical tools is offset by diverging model solutions late in the period.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 23 - 29 2025

Ensemble mean solutions for the 8-14 day period predict a continued
de-amplification and retrogression of the 500-hPa North Pacific ridge that
began during the 6-10 day period as well as building positive height anomalies
over the central and eastern CONUS. The troughing along the U.S.-Canada border
is weaker in week-2, resulting in close to zonal flow over North America.
Onshore flow continues for the Alaskan Mainland, maintaining chances of
below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation.

Chances of above-normal temperatures continue for the CONUS and are favored to
spread well into the Great Basin. Elevated probabilities continue for much of
the Lower 48 and at least a 50% probability is almost universal east of the
Rockies and as far north as the Great Lakes. Increased cloudiness associated
with onshore flow would tend to favor below-normal temperatures over the
Alaskan Mainland, while above-normal temperatures continue to be likely for
Southeastern Alaska, likely due to the continued ridging over the North
Pacific. Hawaii continues to lean towards above-normal temperatures, consistent
with the Hawaii-CON.

Odds tilt towards above-normal precipitation for most of the eastern CONUS due
to continued availability of tropical moisture from the Gulf region, and along
the U.S.-Canada border due to a weaker but persistent trough over central
Canada. Probabilities of above-normal precipitation are slightly enhanced for
portions of the Gulf Coast where the potential for TC activity continues into
week-2. Continued weak troughing over the Bering Sea tilts Mainland Alaska
towards above-normal precipitation, while near- to below-normal precipitation
is favored along the southern coast. Above-normal precipitation also continues
to be weakly favored for the Hawaiian Islands.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 33% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 34% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 33% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5. Good
agreement among the temperature and precipitation dynamical and statistical
tools is offset by diverging model solutions as the period progresses.

FORECASTER: Daniel Barandiaran

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
July 17.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19520708 - 19520713 - 19780719 - 19950630 - 20050717


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19520711 - 19520706 - 19950630 - 20050716 - 19780719


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 21 - 25 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   B    N
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       B    B     NEVADA      N    B
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        N    N     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    N    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 23 - 29 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    N     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      N    N
W MONTANA   N    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    N     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    A    B

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$