091
FXUS06 KWBC 041908
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Fri July 04 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 10 - 14 2025

Today`s ensemble mean solutions are in good agreement in depicting a 500-hPa
height pattern consistent with the positive phase of both the AO and NAO. Below
normal heights are forecast across most of the higher latitudes of the Western
Hemisphere associated with troughs extending from the Arctic to Mainland Alaska
and across eastern Greenland. To the south, positive height anomalies are
predicted across much of the Northern Tier of the CONUS, consistent with a
positive AO. Above normal heights are forecast across the West due to ridging
extending from the Southwest northward across the Great Basin and the Rockies.
The center of the subtropical ridge across the Southwest is forecast to slowly
drift eastward across Arizona during the period. Farther to the east, broad
shallow troughing is forecast near the Great Lakes. Anomalous subtropical
ridging is forecast to the southeast, off the coast of Florida.

Above normal temperatures are likely for much of the western third of the
CONUS. This is particularly true for the interior West, where probabilities of
above normal temperatures exceed 60 percent. Probabilities of above normal
temperatures are much less along the immediate West Coast, particularly for
much of the central California Coast, where below normal sea surface
temperatures in the adjacent Pacific will likely promote periods of cool,
marine air. Warmer than normal temperatures are likely across the Gulf Coast
and Southeast, to the south of a predicted weak frontal boundary. Near to below
normal temperatures are favored in the vicinity of the frontal boundary, across
parts of the Plains and Mississippi Valley. A slight tilt toward above normal
temperatures is indicated for the Great Lakes and Northeast, associated with
predicted above normal 500-hPa heights. Below normal temperatures are likely
for most of Alaska due to persistent anomalous troughing. Above normal
temperatures are more likely across the central and northwestern islands of
Hawaii. However, near normal temperatures are favored for the southern half of
the Big Island as adjacent sea surface temperatures have trended closer to
normal during the last couple of weeks.

An active period is anticipated for much of the eastern CONUS due to predicted
cyclonic flow. The greatest chances (above 50 percent) of above normal
precipitation are forecast for parts of the Mid-Atlantic region, where surface
low pressure may form along a stationary frontal boundary. Elevated chances of
above normal precipitation extends westward across the Ohio and Middle
Mississippi Valley, and northwestward across parts of the central and northern
Plains in the vicinity of this frontal boundary. Wetter than normal conditions
are also favored for much of the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley, due to
a predicted weakness in subtropical ridging across these regions. Above normal
precipitation is also favored for parts of the Southwest, as the predicted
position of the subtropical ridge becomes more favorable for enhanced monsoonal
moisture later in the period. Troughing and associated enhanced moisture flow
leads to elevated chances of above normal precipitation for much of Alaska
southward to parts of the Pacific Northwest. A slight tilt toward above normal
precipitation is indicated for Hawaii, consistent with a consolidation of
calibrated precipitation amounts from the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 25% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 50% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to
good agreement among todays ensemble means.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 12 - 18 2025

The week-2 500-hPa pattern is very similar to the preceding 6 to 10 day period
but with some important subtle differences. One such difference is the
predicted slow migration of a subtropical ridge over the Southwest from Arizona
to the Four Corners. This predicted subtropical ridge evolution is expected to
lead to a more favorable pattern for an enhanced monsoon. Elsewhere across the
West, above normal 500-hPa heights remain forecast. Above normal heights are
also forecast to persist across the Northern Tier of the CONUS. Heights are
forecast to rise across the Great Lakes and Northeast, as a weak trough early
in the period largely dissipates by the end of the period. Generally near
normal heights are forecast farther to the south, across the south-central and
southeastern CONUS. Troughing is forecast to persist across much of Alaska into
week-2, but models predict some weakening by the middle and end of the period.

Above normal temperatures are likely to continue well into the week-2 period
across most of the interior West due to persistent ridging. Above normal
temperatures are also favored across the northern third of the CONUS from the
Rockies eastward due to predicted above normal heights. Near normal
temperatures are favored for parts of the center of the CONUS underneath
predicted near normal heights. Warmer than normal temperatures are favored for
the southeastern CONUS, particularly adjacent to the Gulf, where sea surface
temperatures are well above normal. Above normal temperatures are also most
likely along the Eastern Seaboard, ahead of a predicted weakening trough. Below
normal temperatures continue to be favored across most of Alaska. However,
probabilities of below normal temperatures are generally lower than forecast
yesterday as models are forecasting troughing to weaken across much of the
state as time progresses. Above normal temperatures are favored for Hawaii,
consistent with combined calibrated temperature output from the GEFS and ECMWF
ensembles.

An active monsoon is anticipated during week-2 as subtropical ridging is
forecast to migrate to a favorable position near the Four Corners. Elevated
chances of above normal precipitation are indicated for much of the Southwest
Monsoon region, with probabilities exceeding 50 percent for parts of southern
Arizona. Increased chances of above normal precipitation is forecast to
continue across much of the East due in part to predicted cyclonic flow early
in the period. Probabilities of above normal precipitation exceed 40 percent
across much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid Atlantic due to a combination
of a predicted weakness in subtropical ridging, cyclonic mid-level flow early
in the period, and enhanced moisture advection from the Gulf. Conversely below
normal precipitation is more likely for parts of the Great Basin and Rockies
due to predicted anomalous ridging. Predicted cyclonic flow leads to increased
chances of above normal precipitation across much of eastern and central Alaska
southward to the Pacific Northwest. Calibrated precipitation forecasts from the
GEFS and ECMWF ensembles favor above normal precipitation for Hawaii.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 25% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 50% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to fairly
good model agreement and consistency on the overall 500-hPa flow pattern offset
by weak or conflicting guidance among the surface tools across parts of the
forecast domain.

FORECASTER: Scott H

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
July 17.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20050629 - 19930617 - 19790718 - 20040614 - 20010620


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20050629 - 20040613 - 20010622 - 20070618 - 20010629


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 10 - 14 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    N    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     N    N
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        N    N     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    N    A
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 12 - 18 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    N    N     KANSAS      N    N     OKLAHOMA    N    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        N    N     MISSOURI    N    N
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$