155
FXUS06 KWBC 051902
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Fri June 05 2026

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 11 - 15 2026

Ensemble solutions for 500-hPa height anomalies from the GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE
have come into much better agreement with regard to the evolution of the
synoptic picture over North America today, and are continuing to depict a wave
train with notable amplitude for this time of year. Today`s 6-10 manual height
blend places troughs south of the Aleutians, over the Northern Plains, and over
the Canadian Maritimes, along with a pair of ridges off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest and over the Great Lakes region. The North Pacific ridge is
quite amplified with a large +150 dm anomaly west of Washington state. The
downstream trough over the Plains has also become more pronounced in the manual
blend as ensemble solutions have come into better agreement. This overall
synoptic pattern has been present in ensemble solutions for several days and
has been coming into better focus, increasing forecast confidence.

With the exception of the core of the Northern Plains trough, positive height
anomalies are favored across the Contiguous U.S. (CONUS), which in turn favors
above-normal temperatures for most of the Lower 48, particularly under the
ridge axes over both U.S. coasts. Chances exceed 60% along the West Coast, and
are above 70% for the eastern Great Lakes region. With a trough axis over the
Great Plains, probabilities of above-normal temperatures are lower for the
Southern and Central Plains, and below-normal temperatures are slightly favored
for portions of the Northern Plains. With a stronger ridge indicated over the
North Pacific, increased southerly to southwesterly surface flow is favored
across Alaska, in turn bringing an end to a prolonged period of below-normal
temperatures experienced by the state lately. Above-normal temperatures are now
most likely for the western and northern Mainland, as well as for Southeastern
Alaska, and near-normal temperatures are indicated for the remainder of the
state. Continued warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the subtropical
Pacific tilt the odds towards above-normal temperatures for most of the
Hawaiian Islands, except for the northwestern islands where near-normal
temperatures are indicated.

The ridge-trough-ridge pattern stretched across North America generally favors
active weather east of the Rockies, and drier conditions for the West. Today`s
6-10 day precipitation outlook has a weak tilt towards above-normal
precipitation across the CONUS east of the Rockies, as well as higher chances
(40-50%) along portions of the U.S.-Canada border with a surface low pressure
system favored to pass over the Canadian prairies. Above-normal precipitation
odds are also increased for much of the southeastern CONUS, where rounds of
moist return flow are likely to result in enhanced precipitation across the
region, especially the Florida Peninsula, where chances exceed 50%. With
moderate troughing over the Bering Sea and onshore flow at the surface,
above-normal precipitation is also favored across Alaska. Above-normal
precipitation is also most likely for Hawaii, the result of enhanced
subtropical moisture potentially tied to emerging El Nino forcing.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 33% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 34% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 33% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Very high, 5 out of 5, due to
run-to-run consistency, much better agreement among ensembles, and very good
agreement across forecast tools.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 13 - 19 2026

During the week-2 period the synoptic wavetrain is favored to weaken slightly
and become more elongated as the North Pacific ridge widens and the
trough-ridge pair over eastern North America is favored to propagate eastward
slightly. The main feature continues to be a ridge-trough-ridge stretching
across North America and as such the week-2 outlooks are very similar to the
6-10 day period, and with much better agreement among model ensembles forecast
confidence in the 8-14 day period is also increased relative to previous days.

Above-normal temperatures remain favored across the Lower 48 as twin ridges
keep 500-hPa heights mostly above-normal across the CONUS. As during the 6-10
day period, odds are highest along the coasts, exceeding 50% across the Eastern
Seaboard and over 60% for the West Coast. Odds of above-normal temperatures
weaken across the country`s midsection, and near- to below-normal temperatures
are indicated for the Northern and Central Plains and portions of the Upper
Mississippi Valley as troughing continues over the U.S.-Canada border.
Above-normal temperatures are favored for much of Alaska as onshore flow
persists, while near-normal temperatures are indicated along the southern coast
of the state, potentially due to increased cloud cover and precipitation.
Elevated SSTs continue to push much of the Hawaiian Islands towards
above-normal temperatures, with odds decreasing from southeast to northwest.

Amplified ridging over the North Pacific continues to keep portions of the
northwestern CONUS tilting towards below-normal precipitation, while the
trough-ridge over eastern North America continues to favor above-normal
precipitation east of the Rockies. The high latitude surface low is forecast to
move quickly, weakening that tilt over the Northern Plains, while a slight
eastward shift in the trough axis leads to a slight uptick in chances of
above-normal precipitation up the Eastern Seaboard as far as western New York.
Near-normal precipitation is most likely across the Great Basin and Desert
Southwest. The trough over the Bering Sea is likely to remain, continuing to
push the state of Alaska towards above-normal precipitation, while enhanced
subtropical convection leads to the same result for Hawaii.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 33% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 34% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 33% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to
run-to-run consistency, much better agreement among ensembles, and very good
agreement across forecast tools, offset by generally weaker signals overall
relative to the 6-10 day period.

FORECASTER: Daniel Barandiaran

Notes:


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is
the same as that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below

The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer
(orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal.
Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more
likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being
wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N")
normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of
the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will
be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally
even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry
seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a
forecast of little or no precipitation.

The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as
reference in the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
June 18.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20140523 - 20010607 - 19960601 - 20130528 - 20180611


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20140524 - 20010607 - 20230604 - 19910607 - 20170605


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jun 11 - 15 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   B    N     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jun 13 - 19 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    N    N
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$