535
FXUS06 KWBC 031926
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Tue June 03 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 09 - 13 2025

Today`s ensemble mean solutions depict a transitional pattern across much of
the nation during the 6-10 Day period. A significant pattern change is noted in
the daily model output across much of the CONUS. Strong ridging early in the
period over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to break down as a trough
initially over Southeast Alaska progresses southward along the west coast of
North America. Downstream, a trough near the Great Lakes is forecast to weaken
significantly by the end of the period. In its place, a ridge is forecast to
rapidly develop by the end of the period. The pattern is forecast to be more
stable across much of Alaska, with a strong ridge persisting near the Alaska
Peninsula for the duration of the period. Heights are slowly forecast to rise
across Hawaii as a trough north of the state early in the period dissipates.
The manual height blend, which favors the ECMWF ensemble mean, shows less
amplification across the CONUS relative to yesterdays solutions, consistent
with a transitional pattern. Height rises are noted across southwestern Alaska
relative to yesterday as the mean ridge axis builds northward along the west
coast of the Mainland.

Above normal temperatures are likely across the West (especially interior
locations) as strong ridging dominates early in the period. Downstream
troughing over the east-central CONUS early in the period leads to a slight
tilt toward below normal temperatures for the Middle Mississippi Valley and
adjacent areas. Above normal temperatures are likely for the Gulf Coast and the
Florida Peninsula to the south of a mean frontal boundary. A tilt toward above
normal temperatures is also depicted along the East Coast, ahead of the
predicted trough over the Midwest early in the period coupled with anticipated
rising heights later in the period. A colder than normal pattern is most likely
across most of Alaska associated with anomalous troughing over the eastern part
of the state, particularly early in the period. However enhanced probabilities
of below normal temperatures have been removed for southwestern parts of the
state, near the ridge forecast over the eastern Aleutians. Above normal
temperatures are favored for Hawaii associated with warmer than normal sea
surface temperatures in the adjacent Pacific. Probabilities of above normal
temperatures have increased across Hawaii relative to yesterday as heights are
generally forecast to rise as time progresses.

An active pattern is anticipated for the south-central and southeastern CONUS
westward to the Southern and Central Rockies and northward along the Eastern
Seaboard near the periphery of  a trough forecast over the east-central CONUS
early in the period. Probabilities of above normal precipitation exceeds 50
percent for much of southern Texas and Louisiana due to anticipated enhanced
moisture flow from the Gulf. Enhanced above normal precipitation chances extend
northward to the Great Lakes region associated with a predicted surface low.
Strong ridging, especially early in the period favors a dry pattern for the
Pacific Northwest. However, below normal precipitation chances are lower than
yesterday, as the ridging early in the period is predicted to quickly
dissipate. A tilt toward below normal precipitation is indicated for most of
the South Coast of Alaska associated with upstream ridging predicted near the
Alaska Peninsula. Above normal precipitation is more likely for the northern
third of the state due to predicted increased moisture flow around the northern
periphery of the ridge. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for
Hawaii with a trough predicted near the state early in the period.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 20% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 50% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Below Average, 2 out of 5, due to
a transitional pattern forecast in daily model output.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 11 - 17 2025

The week-2 500-hPa pattern features increasing heights east of the Rockies and
decreasing heights west of the Rockies associated with a transitional pattern.
Strong ridging is forecast to persist near the Alaska Peninsula. Farther to the
south, the period begins with near to above normal heights across the West and
above normal heights across the northern half of the CONUS. Thereafter, the
trough along the West Coast is forecast to deepen by Day 10 with corresponding
height rises predicted across much of the central and eastern CONUS. A weak
trough is depicted early in the period near the western Gulf Coast region. Near
normal heights are generally forecast for Hawaii in the seven day mean 500-hPa
pattern.

With 500-hPa heights forecast to rise for many areas east of the Rockies, above
normal temperatures are favored for most of the CONUS. Probabilities of above
normal temperatures exceed 50 percent from Central Rockies to the western Great
Lakes as anomalous ridging spreads eastward. Near normal temperatures are more
likely across parts of the Southern Plains and Southeast as increased
cloudiness will likely temper maximum temperatures. Near to below normal
temperatures are favored for the West Coast and adjacent areas as a trough is
forecast to deepen by the middle of the period. Below normal temperatures
remain most likely across much of the Mainland and Southeast Alaska associated
with predicted northerly low level flow. Conversely, persistent ridging leads
to increased chances of above normal temperatures for southwestern Alaska.
Above normal temperatures are likely across Hawaii, due in part to above normal
sea surface temperatures in the adjacent Pacific.

Above normal precipitation is favored for most of the southeastern and
south-central CONUS due to the potential for increased moisture flow from the
Gulf. Chances of above normal precipitation exceeds 50 percent for much of the
western Gulf Coast where models show a weak trough in the vicinity. Near normal
precipitation is generally favored for many areas west of the Rockies as
ridging early in the period weakens and a trough develops near the West Coast.
As this trough deepens, slightly enhanced probabilities of above normal
precipitation are indicated for the Pacific Northwest. A slight tilt toward
above normal precipitation is indicated for parts of the west-central CONUS due
to potential enhanced moisture advection associated with southerly low-level
flow combined with a predicted surface low early in the period over the
northern High Plains. Drier than normal conditions are favored for the
Northeast, consistent with teleconnections from a predicted mean positive
height anomaly center upstream over the western Great Lakes. Ridging centered
near the Alaska Peninsula slightly favors a dry pattern for much of the South
Coast. Above normal precipitation is more likely across the northern Mainland,
consistent with teleconnections from the predicted location of the positive
height anomaly center associated with the ridge. Enhanced above normal
precipitation probabilities are forecast to persist across Hawaii, consistent
with a consolidation of calibrated precipitation amounts from the GEFS and
ECMWF ensembles.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 20% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 50% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to
a predicted transitional pattern.

FORECASTER: Scott H

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
June 19.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19510616 - 19980611 - 19550531 - 19630609 - 19520606


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19510616 - 19980611 - 19550601 - 19650601 - 19980616


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jun 09 - 13 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    N    N     KANSAS      B    N     OKLAHOMA    B    A
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     N    A
MINNESOTA   N    N     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    N
ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI N    A     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    B    N
TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  B    N
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST N    B     AK PNHDL    B    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jun 11 - 17 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    A     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     N    A     S TEXAS     N    A     W TEXAS     N    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI N    A     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    A    B
VERMONT     A    B     NEW HAMP    A    B     MAINE       A    B
MASS        A    B     CONN        A    B     RHODE IS    A    B
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    B     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     N    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    A    B     AK SO COAST A    B     AK PNHDL    B    B

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$