487
FXUS06 KWBC 011916
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Fri August 01 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 07 - 11 2025

Today`s ensemble mean solutions generally depict a positive NAO pattern with
below normal heights dominating much of the higher latitudes of the western
Hemisphere early in the period. As time progresses, the eastern extent of these
below normal heights diminishes as a trough spills into Mainland Alaska later
in the period. Farther to the south persistent ridging is forecast off the West
Coast of the CONUS. A trough is forecast downstream of this ridge across the
Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains. A very strong subtropical ridge is
forecast across the Southwest early in the period. While this ridge is forecast
to weaken somewhat during the middle and latter part of the period, heights are
forecast to remain above normal. Farther to the east, strong ridging is
forecast over Eastern Canada. This ridge is forecast to be persistent with
associated positive height anomalies strengthening relative to yesterday with
above normal heights expanding southward to the northeastern quadrant of the
CONUS. A weakness in the subtropical ridge is depicted farther to the south,
across much of the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley.

Above normal temperatures are very likely across the Southwest due to strong
subtropical ridging, particularly early. Probabilities of above normal
temperatures exceed 80 percent for  southern New Mexico, southeastern Arizona,
and western Texas. Below normal temperatures are slightly favored farther to
the north, across parts of the northern Rockies, associated with a predicted
mid-level trough. Above normal temperatures are likely downstream for the Great
Lakes and Northeast, associated with the strong ridge in Eastern Canada.
Probabilities of above normal temperatures exceed 70 percent across much of
these regions. Near normal temperatures are favored for parts of the Southeast,
associated with a predicted weakness in subtropical ridging. Below normal
temperatures are more likely for northern Alaska due to predicted height falls
later in the period. Above normal temperatures are slightly favored across
parts of southern Alaska underneath predicted onshore low-level flow and
adjacent to above normal SSTs along much of the South Coast.  Above normal
temperatures are likely for Hawaii associated with above normal SSTs,
especially for western portions of the island chain.

An active period is anticipated across much of Alaska as a trough is forecast
to strengthen across the Mainland. Probabilities of above normal precipitation
exceed 50 present across Southeast Alaska and adjacent areas of the
southeastern Mainland, due to predicted onshore flow ahead of this
strengthening trough. Conversely, strong subtropical ridging favors below
normal precipitation across much of the Great Basin and Southwest. Above normal
precipitation is favored across much of the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi
Valley, and western Great Lakes ahead of a predicted trough. Onshore flow to
the west of a surface high over the Atlantic favors elevated chances of above
normal precipitation for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.  Conversely strong
ridging over eastern Canada slightly favors below normal precipitation  nearby
across Maine. Above normal precipitation is favored for Hawaii, associated with
a forecast weakness in tropical ridging across the state.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 25% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 50% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to
good agreement among todays ensemble means.


8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 09 - 15 2025

The 500-hPa forecast for the week-2 period exhibits some of the same main
features as the preceding 6-10 day period. A strong trough is forecast to
persist across Alaska. Conversely anomalous riding is forecast to strengthen
off the West Coast of the CONUS and also over Eastern Canada. Teleconnections
from these prominent features, played a large role in informing the week-2
outlooks. In general, these teleconnections favored troughing or cyclonic  flow
from the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley to the Southeast.  The manual
week-2 height blend is consistent with these teleconnections and features the
strongest above normal heights across the Pacific Northwest and the Northeast
with the strongest negative height anomalies over Alaska. Strong subtropical
ridging continues to be forecast across the Southwest, similar to yesterdays
week-2 forecast. A weakness in the subtropical ridge is predicted for the
Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Southeast. Shallow
cyclonic flow if predicted farther to the north, centered over the Upper
Mississippi Valley.

Above normal temperatures are likely across the northeastern quadrant of the
CONUS, due to strong and persistent ridging in adjacent eastern Canada.
Probabilities of above normal temperatures exceed 80 percent for the eastern
Great Lakes and interior northeast. Strong subtropical ridging is forecast to
persist across the Southwest, leading to probabilities of above normal
temperatures exceeding 60 percent for parts of this region. A  strengthening
ridge near the West Coast leads to enhanced probabilities of above normal
temperatures west of the Rockies with chances exceeding 60 percent across
western Oregon and northwestern California. Probabilities of above normal
temperatures are much weaker from the Northern Plains southeastward to the
Middle Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southeast, consistent with
teleconnections from the predicted ridges near the West Coast and over Eastern
Canada.  Above normal temperatures are more likely for the Florida Peninsula,
underneath predicted low-level southeasterly flow and above normal SSTs in
adjacent waters. Conversely, below normal temperatures are favored for most of
Alaska due to a persistent trough. The exception is southeastern Alaska where
near normal temperatures are generally favored ahead of the trough axis. Above
normal temperatures are favored for Hawaii, with the highest confidence across
western and central portions of the island chain.

An active pattern is anticipated to continue into week-2 for much of Alaska
associated with persistent troughing. Probabilities of above normal
precipitation exceed 50 present for Southeast Alaska and adjacent areas of the
Mainland ahead of the predicted trough axis. Above normal precipitation is also
favored along much of the Northern Tier of the CONUS, underneath predicted
shallow cyclonic flow. Above normal precipitation chances are elevated for the
southeastern quadrant of the CONUS due to enhanced moisture advection
associated with predicted southeasterly or southerly low-level flow. Dry
conditions are more likely across much of the interior West, associated with
anomalous subtropical ridging. Above normal precipitation remains favored for
Hawaii, associated with predicted mid level trough in the vicinity.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 25% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 50% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good
model agreement on the 500-hPa pattern offset by weak precipitation signals
across much of the forecast domain.

FORECASTER: Scott H

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
August 21.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19600713 - 19980731 - 20010812 - 19880716 - 19970727


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19600713 - 19980731 - 20010813 - 19880716 - 19650728


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Aug 07 - 11 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     N    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    B
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  N    A     GEORGIA     N    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    N    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Aug 09 - 15 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   N    N     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    N    N
NEBRASKA    N    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    N    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$