564
FXUS06 KWBC 071929
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Tue October 07 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 13 - 17 2025

Today`s numerical models are in relatively good agreement in predicting an
amplified 500-hPa circulation pattern across much of the forecast domain. A
moderately deep, anomalous trough is forecast to extend southwestward from the
Arctic Ocean across northern and western Alaska, the Bering Sea and nearby
northern Pacific Ocean. A strong anomalous ridge with associated positive
height anomalies is predicted over the eastern Pacific (including the Gulf of
Alaska), with the largest positive anomalies located in the general vicinity of
45-50N/140-150W. As time progresses, this ridge is forecast to break down as
the flow becomes more zonal. Downstream, a mid-level trough is forecast near
the U.S. West Coast. Farther east, ridging and associated above normal heights
are predicted over the Central and Eastern Contiguous U.S. (CONUS), with the
largest positive departures from the Great Lakes to the south-central Plains. A
weak trough is forecast just off the Atlantic coast. Near normal heights are
forecast for Hawaii by today`s ensemble means.

Below normal temperatures are favored across most of the western quarter of the
CONUS due to the proximity of a predicted trough. Downstream ridging and
positive height anomalies elevate the chances of above normal temperatures
across most of the remainder of the Lower 48 states, with the exception of near
normal temperatures favored for the Florida Peninsula. Maximum chances favoring
above normal temperatures exceed 80 percent over the vicinity of the southern
Plains. Above normal temperatures are favored across most of Alaska due to
predicted enhanced southwesterly onshore flow between a trough over the Bering
Sea and northwestern Alaska and a ridge over the Gulf of Alaska. Above normal
temperatures are likely for Hawaii (particularly the western and central
islands), consistent with above normal sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the
adjacent Pacific Ocean.

Wetter-than-normal conditions are favored over much of the western and
north-central CONUS. This is due to the proximity of a mid-level trough near
the West Coast, and the predicted influx of tropical moisture from the eastern
Pacific associated with the remnants of at least one, and possibly two tropical
systems (from what is currently Hurricane Priscilla and the developing system
behind it). The north-central CONUS is forecast to be influenced by
back-to-back low pressure systems over central Canada with associated trailing
cold fronts extending well into the central CONUS. Chances of above normal
precipitation peak over 70 percent across southern parts of Arizona. A low
pressure system predicted off the East Coast is expected to track parallel to
the coast and spread wraparound precipitation across the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast coastal plain, before heading out to sea. Therefore, a sliver of
above normal precipitation is favored for the coastal plain, with near normal
precipitation farther inland. Behind the offshore storm system, and to the east
of the mean subtropical ridge axis over northern Mexico and Texas, a large
swath of below normal precipitation is favored. This includes approximately the
southeastern quarter of the CONUS, nosing northeastward over the central
Appalachians. An active pattern is likely for most of Alaska due to forecast
onshore flow associated with the predicted ridge to the south of the state.
Probabilities of above normal precipitation exceed 60 percent for parts of
western Alaska.  Above normal precipitation is also favored for Hawaii,
consistent with a consolidation of calibrated precipitation amounts from the
GEFS and ECMWF ensembles.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to
fairly good agreement among today`s ensemble means in depicting an amplified
500-hPa pattern across much of the forecast domain.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 15 - 21 2025

During week-2, anomalous troughing persists over the vicinity of the Bering Sea
and northern and western Alaska. Downstream ridging continues to flatten out,
overspreading western Canada with Pacific air. A trough is forecast to persist
near the U.S. West Coast, with fast low-amplitude flow across the remainder of
the CONUS. The height anomaly field predicted over the Central and Eastern
CONUS in week-2 features weak to moderate positive height anomalies from the
Four Corners region and Great Plains eastward to near the Atlantic Seaboard,
with near to slightly below normal 500-hPa height departures over New England.
The center of the predicted mean subtropical ridge is forecast over northern
Mexico and southern Texas. Today`s ensemble means continue to forecast
near-normal heights over the Hawaiian Islands.

Above normal temperatures are favored from the Southwest and central and
southern Rocky Mountain states eastward across the Central and Eastern CONUS to
the Atlantic coast. This is attributed to above normal mid-level heights and
anomalous ridging over most of this large area. This is well supported by the
consolidation, automated, and reforecast temperature tools. Probabilities of
above normal temperatures exceed 60 percent for the south-central states and
for northern New England. Much of the West is favored to have near normal
temperatures, with a slight preference for below normal temperatures over
California and parts of Nevada, in the proximity of a mid-level trough.
Southwesterly-to-westerly anomalous flow into Alaska tilts the odds towards
warmer-than-normal temperatures for most of the state, with the exception of
near normal temperatures favored over southern portions of Southeast Alaska.
Above normal temperatures are likely for Hawaii (particularly the western and
central islands), consistent with above normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific
Ocean.

The week-2 precipitation outlook is fairly similar to that of the preceding
6-10 day period. Odds for above normal precipitation are elevated for much of
the western and north-central CONUS, in addition to northern New England, with
the same reasoning as for the earlier period. Wetter-than-normal conditions are
also forecast for far southern Florida, supported by the consolidated and
automated precipitation tools. A slight tilt favoring below normal
precipitation is indicated from the southern Plains east-northeastward across
the Gulf Coast states (including the Florida panhandle), the Tennessee Valley
and Southeast coast states, the central and southern Appalachians, and portions
of the Mid-Atlantic region. This is consistent with raw precipitation amounts
from the three ensemble means (ECENS, GEFS, CMCE, and the NAEFS), and with
ECENS reforecast precipitation. An active pattern is favored to persist across
most of Alaska ahead of a trough over the Bering Sea.  Above normal
precipitation is favored for Hawaii, consistent with a consolidation of
calibrated precipitation amounts from the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Near average, 3 out of 5, due to
fairly good model agreement on the 500-hPa circulation pattern, offset by
uncertainties regarding a rapidly deamplifying flow pattern and associated
increase in uncertainty in the surface temperature and precipitation fields.

FORECASTER: Anthony A

Notes:


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
October 16.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19831001 - 19610924 - 19701009 - 20070924 - 20070919


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19831002 - 19610921 - 19701010 - 20070922 - 20050916


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Oct 13 - 17 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  B    N     OREGON      B    N     NRN CALIF   B    A
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     N    A
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    B     KENTUCKY    A    B
TENNESSEE   A    B     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    B
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    B     GEORGIA     A    B
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    N    B     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Oct 15 - 21 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  N    N     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   N    A     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      N    A
W MONTANA   N    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    B     LOUISIANA   A    B     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    B     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        A    N     KENTUCKY    A    N
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    B     NEW YORK    A    N
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    N     NEW JERSEY  A    N     W VIRGINIA  A    N
MARYLAND    A    N     DELAWARE    A    N     VIRGINIA    A    N
N CAROLINA  A    N     S CAROLINA  A    B     GEORGIA     A    B
FL PNHDL    A    B     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    N    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$