705
FXUS06 KWBC 231901
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Mon June 23 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 29 - JUL 03, 2025

Todays ensemble mean model forecasts for the predicted 500-hPa height pattern
over North America during the 6-10 day period are in good agreement. The ECMWF,
GEFS and Canadian ensemble means predict a progressive pattern during the
period. In todays manual blend and individual models, an amplified ridge is
predicted over the northwest Pacific and western Aleutian Islands and a trough
is predicted over the Gulf of Alaska. Positive 500-hPa height anomalies are
forecast over much of the northern contiguous United States (CONUS) in ensemble
means, with an amplified ridge over the northwestern CONUS and a relative
trough with weaker positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the northeastern
CONUS. Over the period, the pattern progresses eastward and deamplifies in
ensemble mean forecasts, as uncertainty increases. During the period the trough
predicted over the Gulf of Alaska progresses southeastward along the Pacific
coast of North America in all ensemble models, while the ECMWF ensemble mean in
particular forecasts a trough to reform over the Alaska Peninsula late in the
period. The predicted ridge progresses over the north-central CONUS later in
the period.

Below normal temperatures are favored for the eastern Aleutians, under
northerly flow, and favored for southeastern Mainland Alaska and Southeast
Alaska, under a predicted trough. Above normal temperatures are favored over
most of central and northern Mainland Alaska, excluding the west coast,
consistent with the Auto temperature blend of model tools and the temperature
consolidation of calibrated ECMWF and GEFS forecasts. Above normal temperatures
are likely over most of the CONUS, under positive 500-hPa height anomalies.
Probabilities for above normal temperatures exceed 70 percent for parts of the
Northern Rockies under the predicted ridge. Near-to-below normal temperatures
are favored for parts of eastern New Mexico and West Texas northeastward into
the Central Plains, consistent with the Auto blend and increased cloudiness due
to the flow of moisture into the region. The temperature consolidation favors
above normal temperatures across most of the Hawaiian Islands, excluding the
Big Island, associated with above average sea surface temperatures in the
region.

Above normal precipitation is slightly favored across Mainland Alaska and the
eastern Aleutians, consistent with the precipitation consolidation, and favored
with slightly higher probabilities over eastern Mainland Alaska and Southeast
Alaska, ahead of the predicted trough. Above normal precipitation is slightly
favored for parts of the northwestern CONUS, ahead of a trough later in the
period. Above normal precipitation is favored over much of the remainder of the
CONUS, consistent with the precipitation consolidation and the Auto blend.
Probabilities for above normal precipitation exceed 60 percent for parts of the
Southwest monsoon region with predicted moisture flow into the region. Above
normal precipitation is also favored across the Central Rockies into the
Central and Southern Plains and most areas east of the Mississippi, consistent
with model precipitation forecasts and the flow of tropical moisture into these
regions. Above normal precipitation is favored across Hawaii, consistent with
the precipitation consolidation and above average sea surface temperatures in
the region.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 10% of Today`s 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered
on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 20%
of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: About-average, 3 out of 5, due to
good agreement between models on the mean mid-level height pattern, with
uncertainty related to a progressive height forecast and differences between
uncalibrated and calibrated temperature and precipitation model forecast tools.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 01 - 07 2025

Ensemble mean forecasts for the 500-hPa height pattern over North America
during the 8-14 day period remain in relatively good agreement, while the
overall pattern evolves and deamplifies later in the forecast period. In the
manual blend of model forecasts, a ridge and amplified positive 500-hPa height
anomalies persist over the northwestern Pacific and the western Aleutians,
while troughs are forecast over the Bering Sea and the southwestern coast of
Mainland Alaska, to the west of the location of a trough in the 6-10 day period
forecast. The predicted ridge and center of positive 500-hPa height anomalies,
over the northwestern CONUS in the 6-10 day period, progresses eastward
slightly over the northern tier of the CONUS in week 2.

Below normal temperatures are favored for the eastern Aleutians, southern
Mainland Alaska, and Southeast Alaska in the 8-14 day period, under the
predicted trough and slightly negative 500-hPa height anomalies. Above normal
temperatures continue to be favored for central and northern interior Mainland
Alaska in week 2, consistent with the Auto blend of model tools and the
temperature consolidation. With the deamplification of mid-level height
anomalies over the southern and eastern CONUS in week 2, uncertainty increases
in the temperature outlook for these regions leading to an increase in the area
of favored near normal temperatures. Above normal temperatures continue to be
likely for the northwestern and north-central CONUS, under a predicted ridge
and associated positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Below normal temperatures are
favored for parts of the Southwest with enhanced moisture flow into the region
and cloudiness. Above normal temperatures continue to be favored for much of
the Gulf Coast and Southeast Atlantic coast regions, consistent with the Auto
blend and temperature consolidation. Above normal temperatures are favored
across most of the Hawaiian Islands, excluding southeastern areas of the Big
Island, consistent with the temperature consolidation.

Above normal precipitation continues to be slightly favored across Mainland
Alaska and favored for Southeast Alaska ahead of predicted troughs during the
period. Above normal precipitation remains slightly favored for the
northwestern CONUS in week 2, ahead of a predicted trough early in the period.
Probabilities of above normal precipitation are much enhanced for the Southwest
region in the 8-14 day period with continued moisture flow into the region from
the tropics. Above normal precipitation continues to be favored for the Great
Plains, the Ohio Valley, and across the southeastern CONUS in week 2,
consistent with southerly flow of moisture into these regions. Above normal
precipitation is favored across Hawaii in week 2, consistent with the
precipitation consolidation and the Auto blend of precipitation tools.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 20% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 10% of Today`s 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered
on Day 11, 10% of Today`s operational 0z GFS centered on Day 11, 10% of Today`s
operational 6z GFS centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 10% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to
good overall agreement on the mean mid-level height forecast, offset by weak
signals in the precipitation and temperature tools for many areas, and a
deamplification of mid-level height anomalies over many regions in model
forecasts.

FORECASTER: D Collins

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
July 17.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20040607 - 19840610 - 20050625 - 19800603 - 19690629


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19800602 - 20050626 - 19840610 - 19910625 - 19520625


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jun 29 - Jul 03, 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    A
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    B    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 01 - 07 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    A     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     N    A     COLORADO    N    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      N    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        N    N     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    N    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    N
ILLINOIS    N    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    N
INDIANA     N    N     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    N    A
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    N
VERMONT     N    N     NEW HAMP    N    N     MAINE       N    N
MASS        N    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N
PENN        N    N     NEW JERSEY  N    N     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$