Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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FXUS06 KWBC 211917
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Tue July 21 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 27 - 31 2026
The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble mean forecasts agree on the average
large-scale circulation pattern over North America for the 6-10 day period,
with small differences between model forecasts and a somewhat stationary
pattern during the period. The manual height blend is based on 0Z ECMWF, GEFS,
and Canadian model 500-hPa height forecasts, weighting the ECMWF ensemble mean
greater due to recent model skill. Models predict a ridge and positive 500-hPa
height anomalies over the Bering Sea that extend eastward into southwestern
Mainland Alaska and the western Gulf of Alaska. Models predict a trough and
negative 500-hPa height anomalies over the Arctic to the north of the state
that extend into northern and eastern Mainland Alaska early in the 6-10 day
period in all models. A trough axis and negative 500-hPa height anomalies are
predicted along the Pacific coast of Canada and Southeast Alaska, which
deamplify during the period. A ridge is predicted over the western central
contiguous United States (CONUS), while near-average 500-hPa heights are
predicted over parts of the Pacific Northwest ahead of the predicted trough. A
trough and negative 500-hPa height anomalies are predicted over the
northeastern CONUS in all recent ensemble means, with some differences among
models in the location and magnitude of negative 500-hPa height anomalies.
Below normal temperatures are favored across Mainland Alaska, under anomalous
northerly flow, and for Southeast Alaska, under the predicted trough, while
above normal temperatures are favored for the central Aleutians under positive
500-hPa height anomalies. Near to below normal temperatures are favored for
most of the Pacific Northwest, ahead of a predicted trough. With a broad ridge
predicted across the western and central CONUS, above normal temperatures are
likely for most of the CONUS outside of the northwestern and northeastern
CONUS. Probabilities exceed 80 percent for parts of the Southwest, the southern
and central Rockies, and the southern and central High Plains. Below normal
temperatures are slightly favored for much of the Northeast including northern
Delaware, under a predicted trough and negative 500-hPa height anomalies. Above
normal temperatures are favored for the Hawaiian Islands, consistent with ECMWF
forecasts and the consolidation.
Above normal precipitation is favored for the western Aleutians, consistent
with most model forecasts. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for
much of northwestern Mainland Alaska and the North Slope, while below normal
precipitation is slightly favored for the south coast of Mainland Alaska,
consistent with the consolidation of calibrated model precipitation forecasts
and northerly mid-level flow. Above normal precipitation is favored for
southern areas of Southeast Alaska and parts of the Pacific Northwest, ahead of
a predicted trough. Dynamical models predict enhanced moisture flow from parts
of Southern California and the Southwest northeastward to the central High
Plains, leading to enhanced probabilities of above normal precipitation. Below
normal precipitation is favored for the Southern Plains, the Mississippi
Valley, and the western and central Great Lakes region, consistent with the
location of the ridge over the northern central CONUS and the consolidation
forecast. Above normal precipitation is favored for the East Coast, consistent
with most precipitation tools and with troughing over the eastern CONUS. Above
normal precipitation is favored across Hawaii, consistent with the
precipitation consolidation.
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 45% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to
good agreement on the predicted 500-hPa height pattern, offset by some
uncertainty in the precipitation and temperature tools.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 29 - AUG 04, 2026
Ensemble mean forecasts for the 8-14 day period from the 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and
Canadian models all predict a similar mid-level circulation pattern to the 6-10
day period forecast, while 500-hPa height anomalies deamplify somewhat during
the period. An amplified ridge persists over the Aleutian Islands with positive
500-hPa height anomalies pushing eastward across Mainland Alaska in the ECMWF
and Canadian ensemble means. A predicted trough and negative 500-hPa height
anomalies deamplify near the Pacific coast of Canada to the south of Southeast
Alaska. A broad ridge with weaker positive 500-hPa height anomalies than in the
6-10 day period persist over much of the western and central CONUS in week 2,
as does a weak trough over the eastern CONUS.
Below normal temperatures are favored for the eastern Aleutians and parts of
western and southwestern Mainland Alaska, under anomalous northwesterly
mid-level flow. Uncertainty and a charging circulation pattern over the region
leads to favored near normal temperatures over remaining areas of Mainland
Alaska and Southeast Alaska. Near normal temperatures are favored for parts of
Washington and Oregon in the 8-14 day period, ahead of the predicted weak
trough. Above normal temperatures continue to be likely across most of the
CONUS, under a broad ridge, while near normal temperatures are favored for most
of the northeastern CONUS, under a weak trough. Above normal temperatures are
likely for Hawaii, with positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the
vicinity.
Above normal precipitation continues to be favored for the central Aleutian
Islands, northwestern Mainland Alaska, and the North Slope, consistent with
most precipitation tools and the consolidation. Below normal precipitation is
slightly favored for parts of southeastern Mainland Alaska and northern
Southeast Alaska, consistent with the ECMWF precipitation forecast. Above
normal precipitation is slightly favored for northwestern Washington, ahead of
the weakening trough. Enhanced moisture flow from the Pacific into Southern
California and the Southwest continues into the week-2 period, favoring above
normal precipitation from these areas northeastward across the Four Corners
region to the central High Plains. Below normal precipitation is favored for
the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley and the Midwest, ahead of the predicted
ridge. Above normal precipitation is favored along the Atlantic coast of the
CONUS, under a predicted weak trough and consistent with ECMWF precipitation
tools. Above normal precipitation is favored across Hawaii, consistent with
most model precipitation forecasts.
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 45% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, due to
good model agreement on the mean 500-hPa height forecast, offset by a
deamplifying mid-level height pattern, and increasing differences among
precipitation and temperature tools.
FORECASTER: D Collins
Notes:
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is
the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer
(orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal.
Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more
likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being
wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N")
normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of
the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will
be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally
even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry
seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a
forecast of little or no precipitation.
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as
reference in the climate outlooks.
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
August 20.
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20100728 - 20120724 - 20220708 - 19980704 - 20240804
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20120724 - 20100728 - 20220707 - 20210705 - 20180712
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 27 - 31 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N B
INDIANA A B OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN N N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 29 - Aug 04, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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