883
FXUS06 KWBC 141902
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Tue July 14 2026

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 20 - 24 2026

The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble means are in reasonably good
agreement on the predicted highly amplified 500-hPa mean circulation pattern
across the North American domain and surrounding regions during the 6-10 day
period, and are consistent on underlying variations in the pattern through the
period. The manual height blend is based on ensemble means, weighting the ECMWF
model stronger due to its recent higher anomaly correlation skill. The manual
blend indicates a strong anomalous mid-level ridge with above normal 500-hPa
height anomalies over the northwestern Contiguous United States (CONUS)
extending northwestward to Southeast Alaska and eastern Mainland Alaska. The
magnitude of the positive height anomalies is gradually forecast to diminish
toward the end of the period. A trough and associated below normal 500-hPa
height anomalies are predicted over the northeastern CONUS. A deep anomalous
trough and below normal 500-hPa heights are forecast over the Bering Sea and
western Mainland Alaska. Near to modestly above normal 500-hPa height anomalies
are predicted in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands in model forecasts.

Above normal temperatures are favored across most of the western and
southeastern CONUS, due to expansive ridging and enhanced southerly surface
moisture flow from the Gulf of America. Confidence is high (greater than 70
percent chance) for above normal temperatures across portions of Washington,
and greater than 60 percent over most of the Florida Peninsula, which are
related to above normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the adjacent Gulf
and Atlantic. Below normal temperatures are favored for parts of the
northeastern CONUS due to a retrograding trough. Near to below normal
temperatures are also favored across parts of the Southwest and adjacent areas
of the southern High Plains, as cloudiness and precipitation may keep maximum
temperatures down. Below normal temperatures are favored for most of
southwestern and south-central Mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, due to
predicted anomalous troughing. Due to the expected long duration of this
trough, confidence is high (greater than 60 percent chance) for below normal
temperatures for parts of the Alaska Peninsula and the southwestern Mainland,
while above normal temperatures are likely over parts of the eastern Mainland
Alaska and Southeast Alaska, under above normal 500-hPa heights. Above normal
temperatures are likely across Hawaii, due largely to observed above normal
SSTs in the adjacent Pacific.

Subtropical ridging is forecast to evolve into a favorable position and
orientation for enhanced monsoonal moisture advection. As such, above normal
precipitation is favored across most of the West, Rockies, and High Plains,
with probabilities exceeding 50 percent across parts of the Northern and
Central Great Basin, the Southwest and surrounding regions. Above normal
precipitation is also favored across much of the Eastern CONUS, related to a
mid-level trough and enhanced southerly surface moisture flow from the Gulf of
America, supported by most of the dynamical precipitation forecast tools. Below
normal precipitation is forecast over parts of southeastern Texas, supported by
both the operational autoblend and ERF consolidation precipitation forecast
tools. Above normal precipitation is favored for most of Mainland Alaska and
the Aleutians, associated with predicted mean cyclonic flow, while below normal
precipitation is forecast over Southeast Alaska, under predicted ridging and
above normal 500-hPa heights. A tilt toward above normal precipitation is
indicated for Hawaii, consistent with raw model output from the ECMWF,
Canadian, and GEFS ensembles.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to
reasonable good agreement among ensemble means on the amplified 500-hPa height
pattern, offset by some differences among model temperature and precipitation
tools.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 22 - 28 2026

The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble mean solutions for the 814 day
period predict a fairly consistent 500-hPa circulation pattern, with some
reduction of mid-level height anomalies relative to the 610 day period across
North America and the surrounding regions. During the week-2 period, anomalous
ridging centered over the northwestern CONUS is forecast to slowly de-amplify.
The center of the subtropical ridge is generally expected to remain in a
favorable position for an enhanced monsoon, while slowly drifting southward.
Cyclonic flow associated with a trough is forecast to persist across the
Northeast, with the trough retrograding toward the Ohio Valley before gradually
weakening as the period progresses. Cyclonic flow is predicted across western
Mainland Alaska and the Aleutians. Near to modestly above normal mid-level
heights are forecast across Hawaii.

Above normal temperatures are favored over most of the western and southern
CONUS due to a continuation of anomalous ridging and enhanced southerly surface
moisture flow from the Gulf of America. Confidence is high (greater than 50
percent chance) for above normal temperatures over Washington.The higher
probabilities (greater than 50 present) is also favored over parts of
southeastern Texas, southern Louisiana, and the  Florida peninsula, associated
with above normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the adjacent Gulf and
Atlantic. Below normal temperatures are favored across most of the northcentral
and the northeastern CONUS, as a trough retrogrades from southeastern Canada
and weakens toward the end of the forecast period, consistent with most of the
dynamical temperature forecast tools. Below normal temperatures are favored
across southwestern Mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, underneath predicted
cyclonic flow, while above normal temperatures are likely over parts of eastern
Mainland Alaska and most of Southeast Alaska, under above normal 500-hPa
heights. Above normal temperatures are likely across Hawaii, due largely to
observed above normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific.

Enhanced monsoonal moisture advection is forecast to persist during at least
the first half of week-2, leading to increased probabilities of above normal
precipitation across most of the western and central CONUS. Enhanced odds for
above normal precipitation are also favored across most of the eastern quarter
of the CONUS, related to a mid-level trough and enhanced southerly surface
moisture flow. Below normal precipitation is favored over parts of southeastern
Texas, supported by both the operational autoblend and ERF consolidation
precipitation forecast tools. An active pattern is favored to continue across
much of Alaska, due to persistent cyclonic flow. A tilt toward above normal
precipitation is indicated for Hawaii, consistent with raw model output from
the ECMWF, Canadian, and GEFS ensembles.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, due to
reasonable model agreement, offset by the potential for pattern de-amplication
and the uncertainty regarding the precipitation outlook over the Central CONUS.


FORECASTER: Luke H

Notes:


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is
the same as that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below

The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer
(orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal.
Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more
likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being
wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N")
normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of
the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will
be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally
even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry
seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a
forecast of little or no precipitation.

The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as
reference in the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
July 16.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20220717 - 20210721 - 20240727 - 20180708 - 20060728


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20220716 - 20180709 - 20240727 - 20210721 - 20220709


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 20 - 24 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  N    A     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    N    N
NEBRASKA    N    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     N    N
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        N    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    B    N
INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    N    N
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    A    B



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 22 - 28 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     N    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    N    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   B    N
ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    B    N
INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    A
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    A    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$