Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
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FXUS06 KWBC 201926
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Mon July 20 2026
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 26 - 30 2026
The 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensemble mean forecasts agree on the average
large-scale circulation pattern over North America for the 6-10 day period,
with small differences between model forecasts and a somewhat stationary
pattern during the period. The manual height blend is based on 0Z ECMWF, GEFS,
and Canadian model 500-hPa height forecasts. Models predict a ridge and
positive 500-hPa height anomalies over the Bering Sea that extend eastward into
the western Gulf of Alaska during the the period. Models predict a trough and
negative 500-hPa height anomalies over northeastern Mainland Alaska, Southeast
Alaska, and along the Pacific coast of Canada, which deamplifies and progresses
southeastward toward the northwestern CONUS during the period. A ridge is
predicted over most of the western and central contiguous United States
(CONUS), while near-average 500-hPa heights are predicted over parts of the
Pacific Northwest ahead of the predicted trough. A trough and negative 500-hPa
height anomalies are predicted over the northeastern CONUS in the manual blend,
with greater magnitude negative anomalies predicted by the ECMWF ensemble mean
than the GEFS ensemble mean.
Below normal temperatures are favored across Mainland and Southeast Alaska,
under the predicted trough, while above normal temperatures are favored for the
central Aleutians under positive 500-hPa height anomalies. Near to below normal
temperatures are favored for most of the Pacific Northwest, ahead of a
predicted trough. With a broad ridge predicted across the western and central
CONUS, above normal temperatures are likely for most of the CONUS outside of
parts of the northwestern and northeastern CONUS. Probabilities exceed 80
percent for parts of the Southwest, the southern and central High Plains, and
the southern and central Rockies. Below normal temperatures are slightly
favored for most of the Northeast, under a predicted trough and negative
500-hPa height anomalies. Above normal temperatures are favored for most of the
Hawaiian Islands, excluding northwestern islands such as Kauai, consistent with
most model forecasts and the consolidation.
Above normal precipitation is favored for the western Aleutians, consistent
with most model forecasts. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored for
most of northern and central Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska, under a
predicted trough. Above normal precipitation is favored for parts of the
Pacific Northwest, ahead of a predicted trough. Dynamical models predict
enhanced moisture for parts of Southern California, the Southwest, and the Four
Corners region, leading to enhanced probabilities of above normal
precipitation. Below normal precipitation is favored for eastern areas of the
Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley, consistent with the location of the
ridge over the northern central CONUS. Above normal precipitation is favored
for the Eastern Seaboard and eastern Ohio Valley, consistent with most
precipitation tools and with troughing over the eastern CONUS. Above normal
precipitation is favored across Hawaii, consistent with the precipitation
consolidation.
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 35% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 35% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to
good agreement on the predicted 500-hPa height pattern, offset by some
uncertainty in the precipitation tools.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 28 - AUG 03, 2026
Ensemble mean forecasts for the 8-14 day period from the 0Z ECMWF, GEFS, and
Canadian models all predict a similar mid-level circulation pattern to the 6-10
day period forecast, with a slight eastward progression and weakening of
anomalies. Predicted 500-hPa height anomalies deamplify somewhat later in the
8-14 day period with increasing spread among models. An amplified ridge
persists over the Aleutian Islands in the 8-14 day period, as positive 500-hPa
height anomalies push eastward into the western Gulf of Alaska. The trough and
negative 500-hPa height anomalies deamplify over eastern Mainland Alaska and
Southeast Alaska, while extending southward toward the Pacific Northwest. A
broad ridge with weaker positive 500-hPa height anomalies persist over much of
the western and central CONUS in week 2, as does a weak trough over the eastern
CONUS.
Below normal temperatures are favored for the eastern Aleutians under northerly
flow, and Mainland and Southeast Alaska in the 8-14 day period, under
persistent troughing. Below normal temperatures continue to be slightly favored
for a small area of western Washington in the 8-14 day period, ahead of the
predicted trough. Above normal temperatures continue to be likely across most
of the CONUS, under a broad ridge, while near normal temperatures are favored
for most of the northeastern CONUS, under a weak trough. Above normal
temperatures are likely for Hawaii, with positive sea surface temperature
anomalies in the vicinity.
Despite some changes in the circulation pattern, above normal precipitation
continues to be slightly favored for the central Aleutian Islands and central
and northern Mainland Alaska, consistent with most precipitation tools and the
consolidation. Above normal precipitation is slightly favored along the
Canadian border from Washington to the Northern Rockies, consistent with the
calibrated ECMWF forecast. Enhanced moisture flow into parts of Southern
California and the Southwest continues into the week-2 period, favoring above
normal precipitation. Below normal precipitation is favored for a large area of
the Central Mississippi Valley and Midwest, ahead of the predicted ridge. Above
normal precipitation is slightly favored along the Atlantic coast of the CONUS,
under a predicted weak trough and consistent with most precipitation tools.
Above normal precipitation is favored across Hawaii, consistent with the
precipitation consolidation.
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 35% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 35% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: About average, 3 out of 5, due to
good model agreement on the mean 500-hPa height forecast, offset by a
deamplifying mid-level height pattern, and increasing differences among
precipitation tools.
FORECASTER: D Collins
Notes:
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is
the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer
(orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal.
Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more
likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being
wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N")
normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of
the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will
be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally
even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry
seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a
forecast of little or no precipitation.
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as
reference in the climate outlooks.
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
August 20.
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20120724 - 20220708 - 20100728 - 20180711 - 20120711
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20180710 - 20120723 - 20210705 - 20220707 - 20120714
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 26 - 30 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON N N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A B OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 28 - Aug 03, 2026
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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