Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
224
FXUS06 KWBC 111901
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Sat October 11 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 17 - 21 2025
Today`s numerical models exhibit a notable shift in the mean 500-hPa flow
pattern across North America and vicinity relative to yesterday. A strong
anomalous trough is forecast over the northern High Plains, representing a
significant shift northeastward relative to its position yesterday.
Accordingly, downstream ridging is shifted to the east, to a position near the
Appalachians. Mean troughing is predicted to remain anchored over the western
Atlantic, off the coast of New England. Generally near normal heights are
forecast for Alaska, well ahead of a deep trough predicted over the western
Bering Sea. A mean mid-level low is forecast in the vicinity of Hawaii.
Below normal temperatures are likely across most of the western third of the
CONUS. Probabilities of below normal temperatures exceed 60 percent from the
Northern Rockies to the Central Great Basin, near or just behind the predicted
mean trough axis. Predicted downstream ridging supports elevated chances of
above normal temperatures for most of the eastern and south-central CONUS.
Probabilities of above normal temperatures exceed 70 percent across the central
and western Gulf Coast region and adjacent areas of the Lower Mississippi
Valley and Southern Plains, ahead of the predicted trough in the west-central
CONUS and consistent with observed above normal SSTs in the adjacent Gulf. Near
normal temperatures are more likely for parts of the coastal Northeast and
northern Mid-Atlantic, behind the predicted trough offshore over the western
North Atlantic. Above normal temperatures are likely across most of Alaska,
ahead of a trough predicted over the western Bering Sea. However, near to below
normal temperatures are slightly favored for Southeast Alaska, underneath
modestly enhanced anomalous northerly mid-level flow. Above normal temperatures
are likely for Hawaii, especially the western and central islands, consistent
with observed above normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific.
Above normal precipitation is likely across the northern Rockies and Northern
Plains and adjacent areas of the Pacific Northwest, Central Rockies, and
Central Plains due to predicted deep troughing. Probabilities of above normal
precipitation exceed 50 percent over the Northern High Plains near the
predicted mean trough axis. Above normal precipitation is also favored for the
Great Lakes, the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys, and adjacent areas
of the Plains, Appalachians, and Southeast, due to enhanced moisture advection
from the Gulf combined with predicted frontal activity. This represents a
significant shift to a wetter solution due to a notable eastward shift in the
location of the upstream trough in today`s model solutions. Near normal
precipitation is more likely along the Eastern Seaboard as surface high
pressure is still forecast to dominate early in the period followed by a
potential increase in moisture later. A drier solution is noted in today`s
outlook across California and the adjacent Southwest and Great Basin due to
predicted surface high pressure offshore in the eastern Pacific. An active
pattern is likely across most of Alaska ahead of a deep trough predicted over
the western Bering Sea. Above normal precipitation is also favored for Hawaii,
near a predicted mean mid-level low.
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 20% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 45% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 35% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to
a significant shift in today`s model solutions relative to yesterday.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 19 - 25 2025
During week-2, a transition to a lower amplitude pattern is noted as a broad,
shallow trough is predicted across much of the Lower 48 states. Farther to the
north, an amplified trough is predicted over the Bering Sea. This mean 500-hPa
pattern would result in near to below normal heights across the northern CONUS
and modestly above normal heights across the Southern Tier. The resulting
enhanced north to south mid-level height gradient favors fast Pacific flow
across much of the country. Below normal heights are likely for much of Alaska
as the deep trough over the Bering Sea approaches the western Mainland and
progresses southeastward to the Gulf of Alaska. An area of mid-level low
pressure is forecast to persist in the vicinity of Hawaii.
Below normal temperatures remain favored across much of the West due to
residual troughing early in the period. Conversely, above normal temperatures
are more likely downstream across the eastern and south-central CONUS. Enhanced
probabilities of both the below normal temperatures across the West and above
normal temperatures in the East are noticeably reduced relative to yesterday as
the 500-hPa flow transitions to a lower amplitude pattern. Above normal
temperatures remain favored across most of Alaska ahead of a deep trough
forecast over the Bering Sea. However, here too, probabilities are more modest
relative to yesterday as the Bering Sea trough progresses southeastward to the
Gulf of Alaska later in the period. Near to below normal temperatures remain
more likely for Southeast Alaska, consistent with predicted modestly enhanced
northerly mid-level flow early in the period. Above normal temperatures are
likely for Hawaii, especially the western and central islands, consistent with
observed above normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific.
Above normal precipitation is likely across much of the Northern Tier of the
CONUS underneath a predicted shallow cyclonic mid-level pattern and associated
enhanced Pacific flow. Probabilities of above normal precipitation exceed 50
percent across the Pacific Northwest due largely to an approaching deep trough
later in the period. Above normal precipitation is favored across the
east-central CONUS due to enhanced southerly flow and associated moisture
advection from the Gulf, especially early in the period. A slight tilt toward
below normal precipitation is forecast across much of the Southwest underneath
predicted weak ridging. Above normal precipitation is favored across western
and southern Alaska as a deep mid-level trough progresses from the Bering Sea
southeastward to the Gulf of Alaska. Above normal precipitation is also favored
for Hawaii, near a predicted mean mid-level low.
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 20% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 45% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 35% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to
a predicted transitional pattern during this seven day period.
FORECASTER: Scott H
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
October 16.
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Oct 17 - 21 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP N N MAINE A N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Oct 19 - 25 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING B A
UTAH B N ARIZONA N B COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
$$