752
FXUS06 KWBC 111952
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Fri July 11 2025

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 17 - 21 2025

At the outset of the 6-10 day period, mid-level ridging is forecast across the
eastern Pacific and northeastern North America, with troughing situated across
north-central Canada. This ridge-trough orientation over western North America
favors enhanced northerly mid-level flow and an associated surface front
pushing southward through the Plains and Midwest. However, these features are
all weaker than yesterday in a preponderance of the guidance; as a result, a
relatively flat mid-level height field covers the Contiguous United States
(CONUS) at the start of the period. In this set-up, it is more difficult to
discern temperature and precipitation patterns than it is when there are large
and amplified synoptic-scale features that medium- to extended-range models can
more easily discern and forecast. Consistent with the flatter mid-level
pattern, the central CONUS front is forecast to be slightly less progressive
and a bit weaker than yesterday. Meanwhile, the mid-level pattern is expected
to very slowly evolve over the 6- to 14-day period, with a modest mid-level
ridge building westward into the Intermountain West and Southwest, and an
equally-modest trough expanding slowly southward into the eastern CONUS. By day
10, the center of the mid-level ridge should be established in the southern
Rockies, with a 500-hPa height maximum 593 to 595 dm shown by all ensemble
means. At that point, despite the weak mid-level trough in the eastern CONUS,
500-hPa heights should be at or above normal throughout the Lower 48. This
configuration favors broadly robust but not extreme monsoonal rains in the
Southwest, and enhanced rainfall in parts of the Southeast as the weak frontal
system drifts southeastward into a moist quasi-tropical environment across this
region.

For Alaska, the models again have subtly changed the configuration of the
strong North Pacific mid-level ridge and a strong 500-hPa trough to its
north-northwest. The trough is now expected to be a bit more meridional, with
above-normal 500-hPa heights covering most of the remainder of the state, which
is more similar to forecasts from July 9 than yesterday (July 10). Most of this
change was driven by the European ensemble (ECENS) mean forecast. The GEFS mean
is weaker but broader with the trough, pushing lower 500-hPa heights across the
state and confining the North Pacific ridge farther south. The Canadian
ensemble mean (CMCE) is configured similar to the ECENS mean, but weaker, with
500-hPa heights closer to, but still above, normal over most of the state
relative to the ECENS mean. A blend of the ECENS and CMCE means is favored
here, since it is forecast by a preponderance of the guidance and seems a more
logical progression from the shorter-term forecasts.

The anticipated mid-level pattern favors increased chances for above-normal
temperatures across much of the south-central, northwestern, and eastern CONUS,
with reduced chances for warmth along the South Atlantic and northeastern Gulf
Coast. Most tools derived from the ensembles favor reduced odds for warmth
here, which is at least partially due to expected above-normal precipitation.
Chances for above-normal temperatures exceed 50 percent across the Lower
Mississippi Valley just to the south and southwest of the building mid-level
ridge, and south of the weaker cold front traversing the CONUS farther north.
Most tools derived from the ensembles show a maximum of anomalous warmth over
or near this region. The area with maximum chances for warmer than normal
weather is shifted west of the consolidation forecast due to anticipated
above-normal precipitation from eastern Louisiana eastward, and due to an
internal excessive heat tool focusing extreme conditions farther to the
southwest across southeastern Texas. Enhanced odds for warmer than normal
conditions extend eastward and northeastward through the eastern CONUS, toward
mean above-normal 500-hPa heights over the Northeast. Farther west, cooler than
normal conditions are favored over the Upper Midwest and central CONUS behind
the weak, dissipating cold front. But with the cold front expected to be weaker
from yesterday, odds for below-normal temperatures across these regions are
lower today. North of the slowly-building mid-level ridge in the southern
Rockies, warmer than normal weather is favored over the northwestern Rockies
and northern Intermountain West. Subnormal temperatures are favored farther
south in the southern Rockies despite increasing 500-hPa heights due to
expected enhanced monsoonal rainfall. Across Alaska, temperature tools derived
from the ensembles remain highly inconsistent, and as a result, near-normal
temperatures seem most likely over most of the state except the northwestern
Mainland, where derived tools more consistently indicate warmth. Enhanced
probabilities for above-normal temperatures are forecast across Hawaii
supported by the consolidated forecast tool.

With the rather amorphous 500-hPa pattern evolution, marginally enhanced
chances for surplus precipitation cover most of the CONUS. The exception is
part of the Great Basin, Intermountain West, and West Coast north of the
building mid-level ridge, where near- to below-normal precipitation is
anticipated. Odds for above-normal precipitation exceed 40 percent over the
extreme northern Intermountain West (consistent with the consolidated tool for
the last few days), the Southwest (where above-normal monsoonal rains are
expected), and portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast
(consistent with the advancing weak frontal boundary, the potential influx of
tropical moisture, and most tools derived from the ensembles). Similarly,
slightly-enhanced chances for above-normal precipitation cover most of Alaska
and Hawaii. Chances for wetness top 40 percent over western Alaska near the
strong mid-level trough.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 32% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 43% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, 15% of Today`s operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8, and
10% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to
decent model agreement regarding the mid-level pattern, offset by differences
in temperature and precipitation forecasts from the ensemble-derived tools and
the uncertainty inherent to a flat mid-level pattern with weak features, some
of which may incorporate an influx of tropical moisture.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 19 - 25 2025

The central CONUS front should evolve into a weak quasi-stationary convergence
boundary over the Southeast during week-2 as mid-level ridging slowly builds in
the western CONUS and weak troughing slowly expands southward in the eastern
CONUS. 500-hPa heights are forecast to be above-normal throughout the continent
by the end of week-2 per all ensemble means as the weak ridge/trough
configuration sets up. Meanwhile, the North Pacific ridge flattens and the
trough west of Alaska slowly weakens, establishing near- to above-normal
heights across the state by the end of week-2. The ensemble means are in
excellent agreement on this evolution, with all establishing a 500-hPa maximum
of 596 dm near the center of the Four Corners States at the end of week-2.
There is more uncertainty about the resulting sensible weather due to the
weakness of individual mid-level features and the amorphous nature of the
pattern.

With the central CONUS cold front washing out and evolving into a weak
convergence boundary, subnormal temperatures are not expected to continue
through the forecast period in the central and southwestern CONUS. Above-normal
mid-level heights imply slightly increased odds for warmer than normal
conditions broadly across most of the CONUS. Odds for warmth exceed 40 percent
over the northwestern quarter of the CONUS along the building mid-level ridge
axis, and from the southeastern Great Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley
consistent with most of the temperature tools derived from the ensembles.
Decent monsoonal rains - especially early in the period - should limit
temperatures in the Southwest despite the building mid-level ridge center, so
temperatures closer to normal are expected there. To the north, the derived
tools are again inconsistent across Alaska, but the orientation of the 500-hPa
anomaly pattern suggests a warmer than normal period across most of the state,
with temperatures closer to normal in the southwest closer to the weakening
mid-level trough. The consolidated forecast tool continues to favor elevated
probabilities of above-normal temperatures across Hawaii, especially in central
and northwestern parts of the state.

Monsoonal rainfall is expected to taper off across the Southwest as the
mid-level ridge builds in later in the period, but should remain near normal
for the period as a whole. Probabilities for above-normal precipitation are
restricted to the north-central and eastern CONUS during week-2 close to
declining mid-level heights as a weak trough builds in from the north. Odds for
excess rainfall remain above 40 percent in the Southeast near the weak
quasi-stationary convergence boundary, possibly enhanced by an influx of
tropical moisture, although this scenario is far from certain. Meanwhile, near-
to below-normal precipitation chances are elevated across parts of the interior
West, and slightly enhanced chances for dryness have been brought into the
central and southern Plains which will end up just downstream of the building
mid-level ridge axis. Above-normal precipitation chances are increased across
most of Mainland Alaska east of the weakening mid-level trough, but near- or
below-normal precipitation is favored across the southern tier of the state,
somewhat removed from the mid-level trough and in an area of increasing 500-hPa
heights. Above-normal precipitation remains marginally favored across Hawaii,
consistent with the forecast pattern featuring a weak mid-level low just
northeast of the state.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 35% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 45% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 20% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to models
consistently depicting an emerging stable low amplitude pattern, offset by
inconsistent derived temperature tools and weak signals in the precipitation
tools.

FORECASTER: Rich Tinker

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
July 17.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19810703 - 19520705 - 20060724 - 19880725 - 19940719


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
19520704 - 19880724 - 19810701 - 20060724 - 20050714


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 17 - 21 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   N    N
SRN CALIF   B    A     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     N    A
UTAH        N    A     ARIZONA     B    A     COLORADO    B    A
NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    N    A
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     B    A
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    N    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    N    A     AK SO COAST N    A     AK PNHDL    N    N



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 19 - 25 2025

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  N    N     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    B
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  A    N
AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  N    A     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    N    N     AK SO COAST N    N     AK PNHDL    N    B

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$