633
FNUS73 KMQT 021950
FWSMQT

Spot Forecast for Carner Outcrop Fire...MIDNR
National Weather Service Marquette MI
350 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 EDT on June 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION... Mostly dry conditions are expected through the morning
hours around 0700 but will give way to increasing rain chances as a
cold front moves in from the west by late morning. Widespread rain is
expected along this front with rainfall amounts through the evening
upwards of 1 to 2 inches. Cant rule out a few rumbles of thunder. S
to SW winds will gust upwards of 20-25 kts ahead of the front and
veer to the NW behind the frontal passage. With increasing moisture
ahead of and lingering behind the front, RHs will stay above well
above 60% through the forecast period.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    cloudy (90-100 percent). Areas of smoke early
                    in the morning. Chance of showers in the
                    morning, then showers and slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......100 percent.
Chance of thunder...16 percent.
Temperature.........66 at forecast start...Max 82.
RH..................80 percent at forecast start...Min 62 percent.
Dewpoint............61 increasing to 64 late in the morning.
33-foot winds.......Winds south at 8 mph at forecast
                    start...otherwise Southwest winds 8 to 13 mph
                    with gusts to around 24 mph becoming 10 to 12
                    mph with gusts to around 24 mph late in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 6 to 10 mph with gusts to
                    around 19 mph becoming 8 to 10 mph with gusts
                    to around 19 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL at forecast start...otherwise
                    2200-3700 ft AGL increasing to 4400-5900 ft AGL
                    late in the morning, then decreasing to
                    1500-2900 ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Ventilation index...Fair (220) at forecast start. Max...excellent
                    (671.0) increasing to excellent (842.0) late in
                    the morning, then increasing to excellent
                    (1108.0) early in the afternoon decreasing to
                    good (309.0) late in the afternoon.
Rainfall amount.....0.69 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......8.5 decreasing to 6.5 early in the morning,
                    then decreasing to 5.1 late in the morning
                    increasing to 6.6 late in the morning
                    decreasing to 4.4 decreasing to 3.6 late in the
                    afternoon decreasing to 2.3 decreasing to 1.0
                    late in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........50  45  56  61  72  76  84  93  96  97  96
Weather cov.....ARS         SCH CHC CHC LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....SMK         RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                        SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  20  40  40  60  90  100 100 100
Chc of thdr (%).10  0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  20
Temp............66  68  71  74  76  78  79  78  77  73  70
Dewpoint........59  60  62  63  65  65  65  64  64  65  64
RH..............80  75  72  70  67  64  62  63  66  74  81
33 ft wind dir..S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
33 ft wind spd..8   8   10  10  10  13  13  13  12  12  12
20 ft wind dir..S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 ft wind spd..6   6   8   8   8   10  10  10  10  10  10
Wind gust.......14  14  17  17  17  19  19  19  19  19  19
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 2.4 3.1 3.7 4.4 5.0 5.6 5.9 4.6 2.9 1.5
VIndx kt-ft/100.22  34  46  67  84  101 123 154 111 58  31
Ceiling (kft)...8.5 6.5 5.1 5.5 6.6 4.4 4.7 4.9 3.6 2.3 1.0

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers and chance
                    of thunderstorms in the evening, then rain
                    showers likely overnight.
Chance of pcpn......100 percent.
Chance of thunder...41 percent.
Temperature.........Min 50.
RH..................Max 96 percent.
Dewpoint............60 decreasing to 50.
33-foot winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds up to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......800-1500 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (53.0-293.0).
Rainfall amount.....0.58 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......1.0 decreasing to 0.8.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........94  93  92  92  92  93  91  91  93  93  92  90
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).100 100 80  80  70  60  60  50  20  20  20  20
Chc of thdr (%).20  20  40  40  40  10  10  10  0   0   0   0
Temp............66  64  61  59  57  56  55  54  53  52  51  51
Dewpoint........61  59  56  56  55  53  53  52  51  50  49  49
RH..............84  84  85  89  91  92  93  93  93  93  93  94
33 ft wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
33 ft wind spd..10  10  10  8   8   8   6   6   6   5   5   5
20 ft wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 ft wind spd..8   8   8   6   6   6   5   5   5   4   4   4
Wind gust.......16  16  16  14  14  14  11  11  11  8   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8
VIndx kt-ft/100.29  22  24  21  20  17  12  10  10  8   6   5
Ceiling (kft)...1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Areas of smoke
                    early in the morning. Slight chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Chance of thunder...2 percent.
Temperature.........Max 77.
RH..................Min 34 percent.
Dewpoint............50 decreasing to 46 late in the afternoon.
33-foot winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    morning becoming light, then becoming northwest
                    around 5 mph in the afternoon.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds around 4 mph early in the
                    morning becoming light, then becoming northwest
                    around 4 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......800-2500 ft AGL increasing to 8200-8700 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (50.0-533.0).
Rainfall amount.....0.01 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......MISSING.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........84  76  71  57  44  30  28  26  24  21  19  16
Weather cov.....ARS ARS
Weather type....SMK SMK
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............50  51  52  57  62  66  70  72  74  76  76  74
Dewpoint........49  50  51  52  52  52  51  49  47  46  46  46
RH..............96  96  94  81  70  61  51  43  38  35  34  38
33 ft wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
33 ft wind spd..5   5   5   3   3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 ft wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 ft wind spd..4   4   4   2   2   2   4   4   4   4   4   4
Wind gust.......8   8   8   8   8   8   10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.8 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.5 4.8 6.1 7.2 8.2 8.7 8.2
VIndx kt-ft/100.5   5   6   11  16  21  28  37  43  50  53  49
Ceiling (kft)...

$$
Forecaster...BW
Requested by...650
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2515208.0/MQT
.DELDT 06/02/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL corserj@michigan.gov