064
FXUS63 KMQT 111105
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
705 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly warmer than normal temperatures are expected through this
week. This will lead to melting snowpack and increasingly dangerous
ice conditions on lakes and rivers.

- Widespread rain chances this weekend before changing over to snow
Sunday. Heavy snow is not expected at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 239 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Some light rain transitioning to snow showers is moving through
central Upper Michigan as of the time of this writing, as the cold
front of a Clipper currently over northern Ontario continues to
descend into the region. While nothing much other than up to a tenth
of liquid and a dusting of snow is expected early this morning
(mainly in the west), gusty winds from the northwest up to 35 mph
could be seen across the area this morning along and immediately
behind the cold front. Now, with that being said, expect the winds
to die down once the sun rises, with wind gusts dropping down to 20
mph or less by this afternoon across the area as high pressure
ridging once more moves into the Upper Great Lakes. Any flurries
holding out over us should end by late this morning the high
pressure rushes in from the west. With the cold air mass tempering
things across the area today, expect temperatures to be much more
seasonable in comparison to yesterday; expect highs in the mid to
upper 20s in the north to 30s in the west and south central.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Sprawling high pressure overhead the Upper Great Lakes this evening
keeps things quiet to kick off the long term forecast period. A low
amplitude shortwave grazing the UP Wednesday morning may squeeze out
some light snow across the north and west. There is some question
how far east any marginal forcing extends, as well as the degree of
saturation throughout the atmospheric column. Model soundings depict
varying degrees of dry air within and below the DGZ Wednesday
morning, decreasing confidence any snow will even make it to the
ground. Regardless, where guidance does manage to saturate the
column, a short window for light snow is possible early Wednesday
morning so kept in slight chance PoPs across the west. Rebounding
daytime temperatures push into the 40s Wed aftn. Ridging aloft
allows for quiet and warmer weather Thursday continuing through much
of Friday. High temperatures will climb into the low 50s area wide
Thursday. NBM probabilities suggest a 50-90% chance of 60F highs
across the interior west and central Friday, further encompassing
much of the UP Saturday. Seeing how the NBM has been on the slightly
cooler side of actual observed temps recently, would not be
surprised at all if temps exceed 60-65 area wide both days.
Additionally, overnight low temperatures may not drop below freezing
Fri night. This warm weather will continue to melt snowpack and
weaken ice on lakes and rivers, leading to dangerous conditions! No
ice is safe, be prepared for rapidly deteriorating ice conditions
and to change outdoor plans accordingly.

The deep trough swinging off the Rockies on Fri develops a strong CO
low which is expected to lift NE from E Nebraska around 975mb Fri
afternoon to near 980mb as it tracks over the W spine of Upper MI
late in the day Sat. From a climatological perspective, MSLP this
low in mid-late march exceeds the very minimum CFSR percentile. The
system still has wiggle room for the track, but there is high
confidence that the UP will remain within the warm sector of the low
yielding rain chances late in the day Fri through Sat. Warm and
moist air surges N into the region ahead of the system, highlighted
by the NAEFS showing mean WV transport in the 90-99th climatological
percentile. Latest NBM 24hr QPF suggests 0.3" to 0.75" of rain
through Saturday evening before a changeover to snow occurs as the
system wraps up into N Ontario, with the 75th percentile even
pushing an inch in the far south and west. The best chances for rain
look to arrive late Fri/early Sat when the occluded front pushes NE
over the CWA. This accompanied by some instability would infer that
heavier embedded showers and a few thunderstorms can`t be ruled out.
Latest CAPE EFI highlights 0.8-0.9 across Upper Michigan Sat/Sun
with a 1 SoT contour suggesting a highly anomalous amount of
instability is possible this far north for this time of year. In
tandem with the melting snowpack, some ponding on roadways is
possible as well.

Wrap around colder air favors some trailing LES behind the system
into Monday, but heavy snow is unlikely as probabilities of 1"/24hr
are only between 20-50%. At the same time, expect gusty winds up to
20-30 mph over the weekend given the tight pressure gradient across
the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 705 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

Stubborn MVFR cigs at CMX and SAW this morning eventually become VFR
once more by early this afternoon as skies clear out via high
pressure moving in. In addition, the gusty N to NW winds this
morning calm down by the afternoon hours, with the winds becoming
mostly light and variable by the evening hours. Cloud cover comes
back into the U.P. late tonight and there is a slight (20%) chance
for light snow showers to impact the TAF sites and bring them down
to MVFR cigs. However, I don`t have enough confidence to mention
snow/MVFR cigs in the TAFs at this time. Therefore, I`ve kept VFR
conditions going through tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Tue Mar 11 2025

A cold front pushing across the lake early this morning has veered
winds out of the NW, introducing frequent gale force gusts. Expect
northwest winds of 20-30 kts over the far west with northwest gales
35-40 kts over the central and east through the rest of the morning.
Northwest gales quickly end Tuesday morning, backing west and
settling below 20 kts Tuesday afternoon. Winds back south for
Wednesday increasing up to 25 kts over the east half of the lake,
but otherwise winds are expected to remain 20 kts or less through
Thursday night with warm stable air over the lake. The next chances
(30-70%) for gales hold off until Saturday/Sunday with a strong
Colorado low lifting northeast over the Midwest.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for LSZ243-244-
     249>251-264-266-267.

  Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for LSZ245-248-263-
     265.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...BW