144
FXUS63 KMQT 311857
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
257 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather persists through midweek with above normal
temperatures.

- Humidity will fall into the 20-25% range over interior locations
during the daytime hours through early next week along with warm
temperatures, resulting in at least borderline elevated fire weather
conditions.

- Next chances of showers and thunderstorms is in a window from
early Thursday to late Friday, but uncertainty in the details is
high. Additional chances for convection linger into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Afternoon GOES-East imagery shows clear skies over the UP today with
fair-weather cirrus remaining south of the state line and over far
western Lake Superior. Aloft, the upper air pattern is characterized
by a persistent omega block, with the center of the ridge extending
from IL to Manitoba and the closed lows over New England and the
Northern Rockies. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the
Great Lakes, with light SE winds across much of the UP and northern
WI. However, surface obs and radar imagery indicate lake breeze
development off of both Superior and Lake Michigan. These look to
penetrate rather far inland through the rest of the afternoon. Under
sunny skies, temperatures have been able to rise into the mid and
even upper 70s for most, and should climb further into the 80s in
the interior-western and central UP. Behind the lake breezes,
however, temperatures are falling back into the 60s to lower 70s.
Dewpoints are falling into the 30s over the interior, and may even
flirt with the upper 20s closer to the WI border. This is yielding
RH currently near and even below 20% for much of the interior, but
light winds will limit the threat for fire spread. Still, mind those
burn restrictions.

Tonight, clear skies and light winds will help temperatures drop
into the lower to mid 40s for most, though some of the guidance has
values dropping a little further tonight, so it wouldn`t be shocking
if some spots fall below the 40 degree mark. Monday, high pressure
currently centered over Hudson Bay slowly expands southward into the
Great Lakes. As such, yet another day of summerlike temperatures and
RHs falling to the 20s in the interior will occur. Winds will be
more consistently out of the east to northeast and the deterministic
NBM suggests wind gusts in the afternoon around 20 mph in the
interior west, which could necessitate a fire weather SPS.

By Tuesday, the ensemble mean 500mb chart suggests that the weather
pattern will finally begin shifting as the eastern closed low shifts
off the Newfoundland and Labrador coast while the western low shifts
north into Manitoba and Saskatchewan. The ridge remains amplified
over the Great Lakes through Tuesday, but begins to break down
Wednesday as the western low tracks eastward. While there is spread
in the details, the global deterministic suite agrees that the
western low becomes a trough that tracks over Lake Superior and
northern Ontario throughout the PM hours of Thursday to Friday PM.
This will give us our next chances of precipitation, though global
models are notoriously poor at determining the breakup of a blocky
pattern, so confidence is only high enough to provide a broad window
of unsettled weather. Still, will note a surge of moist Gulf air
into the region on the backside of the exiting ridge with PWATs
climbing above-normal Thursday onwards. LREF mean SBCAPE values of
around 250 J/kg in the afternoons for Thursday and beyond will give
at least some potential for thunderstorms mainly in the interior
west, though it is far too soon to tell if there is any severe
potential. The chances for a wetting rain will be a welcome relief
for those concerned with fire weather as chances of 0.1"+ of precip
by the end of Thursday ranges from around 35% in the east to around
70% in the west with widespread 50-70% chances of over a quarter
inch of rain by late Saturday. Otherwise, NBM favors Wednesday for
the warmest temperatures of the week, when 850mb temperatures
nearing as high as 12-15C support highs well into the 80s in the
interior-UP. Thereafter, temperatures return to the more-familiar
70s and 80s for the afternoon hours with lows in the 50s

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 111 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with mainly clear
skies. A lake breeze will push through SAW near the start of the TAF
period, bringing northeasterly winds for the afternoon and early
evening. Otherwise mainly light and variable winds can be expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Blocked weather pattern aloft leaves high pressure from the Upper
Great Lakes to Hudson Bay through the first half of the work week,
leading to an extended period of time where virtually all of the lake
will be in mild conditions with gusts sub-20 kt. The exception will
be on Monday afternoon and evening, where northeasterly flow
accelerates down the western arm of the lake to 20-25 kt, briefly
driving 3-4 ft waves. As the pattern breaks up in the midweek and
progresses, the next chance for gusty conditions and some
thunderstorm potential is late in the week, though model spread by
that point decreases confidence in the details. Chances of wind
gusts exceeding 25 kt is around 10-30% for any given period between
Thursday night and Saturday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION...NL
MARINE...LC