807
FXUS63 KMQT 060031
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
831 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy across the area this afternoon and evening with isolated
gusts to 40 mph.

- Southerly gales on Lake Superior this afternoon and evening.

- Cooler weather starting Monday; widespread frost for inland areas
Tuesday and Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

It was another unseasonably warm afternoon across the U.P today with
highs well into the 70s and low 80s. Southerly flow had strengthened
ahead of an approaching trough and cold front with winds gusting up
to 35 mph in the central and west. Satellite and model analysis
showed the upper level ridge now over the east coast with a broad
trough advancing through the western U.S. There was a surface low
tracking well west of the area, over North Dakota, keeping any
widespread rain well west of the area. Other than a few passing high
clouds it was sunny across the U.P this afternoon.

The western trough will push east into the Upper Great Lakes through
Tuesday morning. The surface low pressure over North Dakota will
track into western Ontario keeping hopes for appreciable, widespread
rainfall low. As the low lifts to the northeast it will drag a cold
front through the U.P from west to east tonight into early Monday.
Expect showers along and just behind the cold front as it pushes
though the area. CAPE values are pretty weak along the front, 100 to
200 J/kg but with LIs approaching -2 wouldn`t be surprised to see a
few rumbles of thunder this evening and tonight. Overall expecting
less than a quarter inch of rainfall.

Showers will linger in the eastern U.P Monday through the early
afternoon. Expect cooler and dry weather elsewhere with light winds
and temperatures in the 50s to low 60s.

The cooler and dry weather will continue through mid week. The
cooler airmass, combined with clear skies, dry air and light winds
will result in overnight lows down into the upper 20s and low 30s
away from the shorelines Tuesday and Wednesday night resulting in a
widespread frost/freeze, mainly over the central and west.

The trough axis shifts east of the area late in the week as a ridge
of high pressure builds into the western U.S. This  will result in
temperatures warming into the 60s across the U.P late this week,
several degrees above seasonal averages. Northwest flow aloft will
be favorable for at least a few shortwaves to affect the area,
bringing the chance for precipitation back into the forecast
Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 830 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

VFR conditions will be the main flight category into tonight.
However, could see some deterioration to MVFR early Monday morning
as a cold front moves through Upper Michigan. Scattered showers with
some embedded lightning will accompany the front through the night.
Main impacts, though, will come from strong winds/LLWS. Strong
southerly winds will continue to gust up to 25 kts at IWD and SAW
and up to 35 kts at CMX, eventually veering to the northwest with
frontal passage early Monday morning. In addition, will continue to
carry a LLWS threat mention at SAW into tonight before winds aloft
eventually mix to the surface.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 227 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Southerly gales to 40 kts are expected across much of the lake
through late tonight ahead of a cold front pushing through the
region from west to east. Wind will shift northwest behind the front
and weaken below 30 kts by early Monday morning, further falling
below 20 kts by late morning. Another cold front will push through
the area Monday night into Tuesday with westerly winds increasing to
25 to 30 kts. Winds will diminish from west to east on Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night. Another period of winds gust to 25 kts
is expected on Wednesday night into Thursday as southerly flow
develops across the area in response to a surface trough moving
through Ontario.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Monday for LSZ162-241-
     242-263.

  Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for LSZ243>250-264>266.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...NL