654
FXUS63 KMQT 031934
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
334 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty westerly winds to 30 mph expected with a few gusts to 45 mph
possible (30%) along the shores of the Great Lakes through late
afternoon.

- Warming temperatures and the high April sun angle will lead to
melting snow and ice during the daylight hours late this week.
Traveling on frozen lakes and rivers will be dangerous.

- Light lake effect snow showers are possible across the north to
northwest wind snowbelts late this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Surface analysis/water vapor imagery this afternoon shows low
pressure along the Ontario/Quebec border with high pressure centered
over southwest MN. This puts Upper Michigan under the influence of
zonal flow this afternoon. Meanwhile, pressure rises have
contributed to gusty west-northwest winds all day. And, that has
been the main story since any lingering snow showers subsided
several hours ago with the strengthening high pressure. So far, some
of the highest gusts have been reported at Houghton, Copper Harbor,
and Newberry, in the 30 to 35 mph range. And, the usual wind
prone Grand Marais is gusting up to 40 mph. As far as
temperatures, highs have topped off just below to at normal for
early April with upper 30s/low 40s. Tonight, the main focus
will be on fog formation with lingering low level moisture.
Confidence remains too low at this time to insert mention of
fog, but this will need to be monitored through the evening.
Overnight lows are expected to bottom out in the upper teens/low
20s across the interior west with widespread mid 20s over the
remainder of Upper Michigan.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Quiet weather kicks off the long term forecast period as sfc high
pressure settles overhead the Upper Great Lakes Friday. Early
Saturday, a sfc low rides northeast up the OH River Valley into the
Lower Great Lakes under the right entrance of a stout 300mb jet
streak while a weak shortwave descends into northern Ontario. These
two features narrowly glance Upper Michigan, providing only a slight
uptick in 25-50% rain/snow PoPs behind a cold frontal passage
Saturday. Light lake effect snow showers are possible Sunday into
Monday across the N to NW wind snowbelts as the two shortwaves phase
together in central Quebec, allowing a shot of chilly 850mb temps to
descend over Lake Superior. An embedded shortwave within an upper
level low digging into the Upper Midwest helps develop a weak sfc
low along a sharp baroclinic zone draped over Wisconsin on Monday,
which may provide a slight synoptic boost to ongoing LES showers and
spread light snow across the s-central. However, high pressure
building underneath a strong ridge from the northwest and an
incoming dry airmass will limit LES showers through Monday into
Tuesday. Thus, not expecting any noteworthy snow accumulations as
NBM guidance suggests upwards of an inch or two mostly confined to
areas of higher terrain.

The ridge builds further into the midweek period ushering in a
period of quiet weather with more normal temperatures for early
April.

As a reminder, with warming temperatures and higher sun angle, ice
and snow will melt quicker than expected, so its best to stay off
any remaining frozen rives and lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Precipitation has ended across the TAF sites, but cigs have been
slow to improve with abundant low level moisture. So, MVFR
conditions will continue through late afternoon when a slow return
to VFR levels is expected across all TAF sites. Lingering low level
moisture and high pressure could result in fog formation tonight,
but confidence still remains too low to include mention at this
point. In addition, northwest winds will remain strong into
this evening with gusts of 20 to 25 kts at IWD and CMX and as
high as 35 kts at CMX. Winds will shift to the west by this
evening as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025

High pressure moving in from the west quickly reduces the winds to
20 knots or less by this evening. The light winds remain across Lake
Superior the rest of this week as high pressure ridging dominates
the region. As a cold front descends from northern Ontario over us
late Sunday into Monday, expect the winds to increase from the north
at 20 to 25 knots behind it. As high pressure behind the front
descends from the Canadian Prairies and Northern Plains into the
Ohio River Valley from early to mid next week, expect the winds to
become 20 knots or less again by Monday night, looking to continue
through the rest of next week as a general stable pattern to settles
over us.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ250-251-266-
     267.

Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...GS/TDUD
MARINE...BW